Streaming in Brazil Potential Addressable Market¶

Addressable Market Calculation¶

Here we quantify the potential addressable market for each identified whitespace in the Brazilian streaming market based on current data and trends in 2024-2025. The market size is estimated in terms of the potential number of users addressable by solutions targeting the specific pain points and opportunities of each whitespace.

1. Flexible & Micro-Bundled Subscription Models¶

Key Assumptions and Detailed Rationale:
- A1: Total Internet Users in Brazil (2025): Streaming requires internet access. This forms the base population from which potential users for this whitespace can be drawn.
  - Rationale: This is the fundamental prerequisite for accessing streaming services.
- A2: Percentage of Internet Users who are Potential Streaming Consumers: This represents the portion of the online population that has demonstrated interest in streaming or is within the demographic profile of typical streaming users.
  - Rationale: While internet access is necessary, not everyone online is a potential streaming consumer. Data indicates a high penetration of streaming adoption among internet users in Brazil.
- A3: Percentage of Potential Streaming Consumers Addressable by Flexible/Micro-Bundles: This is the crucial segment suffering from "subscription fatigue," high costs, or inflexibility in current offerings. It includes existing subscribers likely to churn or consolidate, and potentially non-subscribers who are priced out of current models.
  - Rationale: This whitespace directly addresses the economic pains and desire for affordability and flexibility highlighted in the market analysis.
- A4: Percentage of Currently Offline/Non-Streaming Internet Users Addressable by Low-Cost Options: A portion of those currently without subscriptions or offline may enter the streaming market if lower-cost, more flexible options become available.
  - Rationale: The high cost of current offerings is a barrier for some, and lower entry points could expand the market beyond current streaming users.
Researched Numbers with Rationale and Sources:
- A1 Number: Approximately 183 million individuals in January 2025.
  - Rationale: This is the stated number of internet users in Brazil at the beginning of 2025.
  - Source: DataReportal (Digital 2025: Brazil).
- A2 Number: Approximately 70% of internet users.
  - Rationale: Around 70% of Brazilians (within the internet-connected population) have at least one streaming subscription, indicating a strong propensity for streaming consumption among those with access.
  - Source: Value Chain Report (Aggregate Market Metrics).
- A3 Number: Estimated range of 30% to 50%.
  - Rationale: The analysis indicates high subscription fatigue, significant migration to cheaper tiers (nearly half of Netflix users), and churn driven by cost and content finales. This suggests a large proportion of the existing streaming base is actively seeking cost relief or better value. [Current Pains, Consumption Trends - Signal 1, Signal 2]
  - Source: Inferred from Current Pains and Consumption Trends analyses.
- A4 Number: Estimated range of 10% to 20%.
  - Rationale: The ~13.8% of the total population offline and other internet users not yet streaming represent a segment that might be price-sensitive. A portion of this group could be addressable with significantly lower-cost or more flexible options.
  - Source: Inferred from internet penetration data and the economic pains analysis.
Calculated Potential Addressable Market (Users):
- Formula: AM = (A1 * A2 * A3) + (A1 * (1 - A2) * A4)
- Calculations:
  - Potential Streaming Consumers = 183 million * 70% = ~128.1 million users.
  - Offline/Non-Streaming Internet Users = 183 million * (100% - 70%) = ~54.9 million users.
  - AM (Low End) = (128.1 million * 30%) + (54.9 million * 10%) = 38.43 million + 5.49 million = 43.92 million users.
  - AM (High End) = (128.1 million * 50%) + (54.9 million * 20%) = 64.05 million + 10.98 million = 75.03 million users.
- Potential Addressable Market Range: ~44 million to ~75 million users.

2. Premium AVOD/FAST with Enhanced User Control & Ad Experience¶

Key Assumptions and Detailed Rationale:
- A1: Total Internet Users in Brazil (2025): The base population with internet access.
  - Rationale: Streaming requires internet access.
- A2: Percentage of Internet Users who are Potential Streaming Consumers: The portion of online individuals interested in streaming.
  - Rationale: Filters the online population to those relevant to streaming.
- A3: Percentage of Potential Streaming Consumers Addressable by Enhanced AVOD/FAST: This segment includes current AVOD/FAST users and those willing to adopt ad-supported models if the experience is significantly improved (better ad relevance, less intrusive ads, etc.).
  - Rationale: This whitespace focuses on enhancing the ad-supported experience to attract and retain a larger base willing to trade attention for lower costs.
Researched Numbers with Rationale and Sources:
- A1 Number: Approximately 183 million individuals.
  - Rationale: Stated number of internet users in Brazil in January 2025.
  - Source: DataReportal (Digital 2025: Brazil).
- A2 Number: Approximately 70%.
  - Rationale: High penetration of streaming adoption among internet users.
  - Source: Value Chain Report (Aggregate Market Metrics).
- A3 Number: Estimated range of 40% to 60%.
  - Rationale: Nearly half of Netflix's Brazilian subscribers are on the ad-tier (12 million out of >25 million), indicating strong existing adoption. [Folha/F5, 2025, Consumption Trends - Signal 5]. Ad acceptance is noted when value is perceived. This suggests a large addressable pool receptive to improved AVOD.
  - Source: Inferred from Consumption Trends and Folha/F5 data. [Folha/F5, 2025, Consumption Trends - Signal 5]
Calculated Potential Addressable Market (Users):
- Formula: AM = A1 * A2 * A3
- Calculations:
  - Potential Streaming Consumers = 183 million * 70% = ~128.1 million users.
  - AM (Low End) = 128.1 million * 40% = 51.24 million users.
  - AM (High End) = 128.1 million * 60% = 76.86 million users.
- Potential Addressable Market Range: ~51 million to ~77 million users.

3. Universal Content Discovery & Super-Aggregator Services (Brazil-focused)¶

Key Assumptions and Detailed Rationale:
- A1: Total Internet Users in Brazil (2025): The base population with internet access.
  - Rationale: Streaming requires internet access.
- A2: Percentage of Internet Users who are Potential Streaming Consumers: The portion of online individuals interested in streaming.
  - Rationale: Filters the online population to those relevant to streaming.
- A3: Percentage of Potential Streaming Consumers who are Multi-Service Users or Would Benefit from Aggregation: Users who subscribe to or utilize multiple streaming services, or who face challenges with content discovery across services, are the primary audience for a super-aggregator.
  - Rationale: A super-aggregator solves the pain of fragmentation, most keenly felt by those navigating multiple platforms.
- A4: Percentage of Relevant Consumers (from A3) Experiencing Discovery Frustration: Not all multi-service users may feel the pain strongly, but a significant portion do.
  - Rationale: This refines the target segment to those most likely to adopt a solution for discovery pain.
Researched Numbers with Rationale and Sources:
- A1 Number: Approximately 183 million individuals.
  - Rationale: Stated number of internet users in Brazil in January 2025.
  - Source: DataReportal (Digital 2025: Brazil).
- A2 Number: Approximately 70%.
  - Rationale: High penetration of streaming adoption among internet users.
  - Source: Value Chain Report (Aggregate Market Metrics).
- A3 Number: Estimated range of 70% to 80%.
  - Rationale: Brazilians subscribe to an average of 3.4 to 4.2 streaming services. [Current Pains, Value Chain Report, Simon-Kucher]. This high average indicates that a large majority of streaming consumers are multi-service users or will likely become so, thus benefiting from aggregation.
  - Source: Inferred from average subscriptions per user data. [Current Pains, Value Chain Report, Simon-Kucher]
- A4 Number: Estimated range of 50% to 60%.
  - Rationale: 55% of users blame "too much choice" for search abandonment, indicating significant frustration with discovery across services. [Consumption Trends - Signal 6].
  - Source: Inferred from Consumption Trends analysis. [Consumption Trends - Signal 6]
Calculated Potential Addressable Market (Users):
- Formula: AM = A1 * A2 * A3 * A4
- Calculations:
  - Potential Streaming Consumers = 183 million * 70% = ~128.1 million users.
  - AM (Low End) = 128.1 million * 70% * 50% = 89.67 million * 50% = 44.835 million users.
  - AM (High End) = 128.1 million * 80% * 60% = 102.48 million * 60% = 61.488 million users.
- Potential Addressable Market Range: ~45 million to ~61 million users.

4. Hyper-Localized & Regional Content Platforms/Hubs¶

Key Assumptions and Detailed Rationale:
- A1: Total Internet Users in Brazil (2025): The base population with internet access.
  - Rationale: Access is required for streaming.
- A2: Percentage of Internet Users with Strong Interest in Hyper-Local/Regional Content: This segment consists of individuals across Brazil who have a significant cultural affinity for and desire to consume content specific to their region, local culture, or specific niche interests (e.g., regional sports, local events, specific cultural narratives) not well-served by mainstream platforms.
  - Rationale: The whitespace targets this specific demand for culturally relevant and local stories.
Researched Numbers with Rationale and Sources:
- A1 Number: Approximately 183 million individuals.
  - Rationale: Stated number of internet users in Brazil in January 2025.
  - Source: DataReportal (Digital 2025: Brazil).
- A2 Number: Estimated range of 20% to 40%.
  - Rationale: While a precise number for this diverse segment is unavailable, the analysis indicates strong demand and expectation for Brazilian stories and regional content. This suggests a significant portion of the internet-connected population would be interested in a platform or hub dedicated to this. [Current Pains, Consumption Trends - Signal 3]
  - Source: Inferred from demand signals for local and regional content. [Current Pains, Consumption Trends - Signal 3]
Calculated Potential Addressable Market (Users):
- Formula: AM = A1 * A2
- Calculations:
  - AM (Low End) = 183 million * 20% = 36.6 million users.
  - AM (High End) = 183 million * 40% = 73.2 million users.
- Potential Addressable Market Range: ~37 million to ~73 million users.

5. Accessible & Data-Efficient Streaming Solutions for Underserved Segments¶

Key Assumptions and Detailed Rationale:
- A1: Total Population in Brazil (2025): The overall population, including those currently offline.
  - Rationale: This whitespace aims to expand the market beyond the currently internet-connected population.
- A2: Percentage of the Population Currently Offline: This segment represents individuals who lack internet access, a primary barrier to streaming.
  - Rationale: Bringing this segment online is a key part of addressing the digital divide.
- A3: Percentage of Online Population with Poor/Limited Connections: Even with internet access, unreliable or capped connections (especially mobile data) hinder the streaming experience for a significant portion of users.
  - Rationale: Data-efficient solutions target this segment to provide a satisfactory experience.
- A4: Percentage of the Population with Accessibility Needs: This segment requires features like LIBRAS and audio description to fully access and enjoy content.
  - Rationale: Accessibility solutions target this specific barrier to consumption. Note: Quantifying this precisely with available data is challenging, so this will contribute to the range's uncertainty.
- A5: Percentage of Underserved/Accessible Segments Likely to Adopt Streaming: The portion of these segments who would become streaming consumers if connectivity and accessibility barriers are removed and suitable solutions are offered.
  - Rationale: Assuming that addressing the technical/accessibility pains unlocks a portion of these users into the streaming market.
Researched Numbers with Rationale and Sources:
- A1 Number: Approximately 218.5 million to 221.6 million.
  - Rationale: Total estimated population of Brazil in 2025.
  - Source: Macrotrends, Trading Economics, Countrymeters.
- A2 Number: Approximately 13.8%.
  - Rationale: If 86.2% of the population has internet access, then 13.8% does not.
  - Source: Inferred from internet penetration data. This equates to roughly 30 million people (13.8% of ~218.5M).
- A3 Number: Estimated range of 10% to 20%.
  - Rationale: Uneven broadband quality and reliance on mobile data with caps are significant issues. This is an estimate of the portion of the online population facing these significant constraints. [Current Pains, Value Chain Report, Consumption Trends - Signal 4]
  - Source: Inferred from bottleneck analysis. [Current Pains, Value Chain Report, Consumption Trends - Signal 4]
- A4 Number: Data not readily available in the provided sources for a precise percentage of the population with specific accessibility needs relevant to streaming consumption (e.g., requiring LIBRAS or audio description). This factor is acknowledged as a component of the whitespace but not explicitly calculated into the user range due to lack of specific data.
  - Rationale: Acknowledged pain point but not quantifiable with provided data.
  - Source: Current Pains Analysis.
- A5 Number: Estimated range of 50% to 70%.
  - Rationale: Assuming that a significant portion of this newly enabled population would have a similar propensity to stream as the currently connected population (where 70% are potential streamers), adjusted down slightly to account for potential additional barriers.
  - Source: Inferred from A2 and general streaming adoption rates. [Value Chain Report]
Calculated Potential Addressable Market (Users):
- Formula (Simplified, focusing on connectivity gap): AM = (A1 * A2 * A5) + (A1 * (1 - A2) * A3 * A5)
- Calculations:
  - Offline Population Addressable = (218.5 million * 13.8%) * [50-70%] = 30.153 million * [50-70%] = 15.0765 million to 21.1071 million.
  - Online with Poor Connection Addressable = (218.5 million * (100% - 13.8%)) * [10-20%] * [50-70%] = (218.5 million * 86.2%) * [10-20%] * [50-70%] = 188.347 million * [10-20%] * [50-70%].
  - Online with Poor Connection Addressable (Low End) = 188.347 million * 10% * 50% = 18.8347 million * 50% = 9.41735 million.
  - Online with Poor Connection Addressable (High End) = 188.347 million * 20% * 70% = 37.6694 million * 70% = 26.36858 million.
  - AM (Low End) = 15.0765 million + 9.41735 million = 24.49385 million users.
  - AM (High End) = 21.1071 million + 26.36858 million = 47.47568 million users.
- Potential Addressable Market Range: ~24 million to ~47 million users. (This represents users potentially enabled or better served by these solutions).

6. Legitimate & Affordable Niche Sports Streaming Packages¶

Key Assumptions and Detailed Rationale:
- A1: Total Internet Users in Brazil (2025): The base population with internet access.
  - Rationale: Access is required for streaming.
- A2: Percentage of Internet Users Interested in Niche Sports or Affordable Unbundled Sports Content: This segment represents sports fans who are either interested in less mainstream sports or are passionate about major sports but find current legal options too expensive or inconvenient, potentially resorting to piracy.
  - Rationale: This whitespace targets sports enthusiasts seeking more accessible and affordable legal streaming options.
Researched Numbers with Rationale and Sources:
- A1 Number: Approximately 183 million individuals.
  - Rationale: Stated number of internet users in Brazil in January 2025.
  - Source: DataReportal (Digital 2025: Brazil).
- A2 Number: Estimated range of 10% to 20%.
  - Rationale: Live sports are a strong acquisition driver, and piracy is a significant issue for sports content, indicating a large unmet need for affordable legal options. This is an estimate of the segment size among internet users. [Current Pains, Current and Future Opportunities Analysis]
  - Source: Inferred from demand for live sports and piracy issues. [Current Pains, Current and Future Opportunities Analysis]
Calculated Potential Addressable Market (Users):
- Formula: AM = A1 * A2
- Calculations:
  - AM (Low End) = 183 million * 10% = 18.3 million users.
  - AM (High End) = 183 million * 20% = 36.6 million users.
- Potential Addressable Market Range: ~18 million to ~37 million users.

References¶

CNN Brasil – “Conselho do Congresso aprova relatório sobre regulamentação do streaming”
Conect Telecom – “Fibra Óptica: A Grande Aliada na Expansão das Plataformas de Streaming no Brasil”
Consumidor Moderno – “A nova era do entretenimento: hábitos e desafios do streaming no Brasil”
Countrymeters – “Brazil population (2025) live”
Current and Future Opportunities Analysis (Provided in prompt)
Current Pains Analysis (Provided in prompt)
Consumption Trends Analysis (Provided in prompt)
DataReportal – Global Digital Insights – “Digital 2025: Brazil”
Folha/F5 – “Netflix supera 25 milhões de clientes no Brasil; quase metade está em plano com anúncios” [Folha/F5, 2025]
Macrotrends – “Brazil Population 1950-2025”
Simon-Kucher – “Global streaming study 2024: Key trends & industry insights” [Simon-Kucher]
Trading Economics – “Brazil Population”
Value Chain Report on the Streaming Industry in Brazil (Provided in prompt)