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Infrastructure in Brazil Potential Addressable Market

Addressable Market Calculation

1. National multimodal data layer (open APIs for real-time cargo visibility & smart dispatch)

This whitespace addresses the inefficiency and high cost of logistics in Brazil caused by poor intermodal integration and lack of real-time cargo visibility. A national multimodal data layer would provide a platform for data exchange and integration across different transport modes.

  • Key Assumptions and Detailed Rationale:

    1. The whitespace solution directly addresses the unmet need for affordable and predictable logistics, identified as a major pain point in Brazil.
    2. Addressing this unmet need is estimated to generate significant annual cost savings for logistics users (shippers, operators, etc.). The "Current Pains" analysis specifically quantifies this potential, stating that a 4-6% reduction in logistics cost-to-sales could result in ≈R$ 80–100 billion in yearly savings. This figure serves as a strong proxy for the potential value creation enabled by improving logistics efficiency and visibility.
    3. The addressable market for the data layer service is a portion of these potential annual savings that users are willing to pay for the platform and its data/API access. This percentage represents the value captured by the service provider. A higher percentage indicates a greater perceived value and successful market penetration.

  • Researched Numbers with Rationale and Sources:

    • Potential Yearly Logistics Cost Savings: R$ 80 billion to R$ 100 billion. Rationale: This range is directly stated in the "Current Pains" analysis as the estimated yearly savings achievable by addressing the need for affordable, predictable logistics through solutions like integrated multimodal corridors. [Current Pains]
    • Percentage of Savings Captured by Service: Assumed range of 1% to 5%. Rationale: This is an estimation of the fraction of the potential cost savings that users would be willing to pay as revenue to the data layer service provider. A range is used to reflect uncertainty in pricing models (e.g., per-transaction fee, subscription) and market adoption rates. A higher percentage reflects a high-value proposition for a solution addressing a major pain point.

  • Calculated Potential Addressable Market: The potential addressable market (yearly revenue for the data layer service) is calculated by multiplying the potential yearly logistics cost savings by the estimated percentage of savings captured by the service.

    Formula: Addressable Market (Yearly) = Potential Yearly Logistics Cost Savings * Percentage of Savings Captured by Service

    • Low end: R$ 80 billion * 1% = R$ 0.8 billion
    • High end: R$ 100 billion * 5% = R$ 5 billion

    Potential Addressable Market (Yearly): R$ 0.8 billion to R$ 5 billion.

2. One-stop digital licensing & compliance GovTech platform

This whitespace targets the bureaucratic hurdles and lengthy processes involved in obtaining licenses and permits for infrastructure projects in Brazil. A GovTech platform would streamline and digitalize these interactions between developers, consultants, and government agencies.

  • Key Assumptions and Detailed Rationale:

    1. The whitespace directly addresses the significant pain point of bureaucracy and regulatory complexity, which causes delays and increases costs in the Planning & Development phase of infrastructure projects.
    2. The market size for this platform is related to the overall investment flowing into new infrastructure projects, as these projects require licensing and compliance activities. The projected private investment in infrastructure serves as a proxy for the scale of projects entering the pipeline annually.
    3. The addressable market is the annual spending on a digital platform and associated services that streamline the licensing and compliance process. This spending is a portion of the overall costs associated with this phase (consulting fees, internal compliance costs, agency processing costs).

  • Researched Numbers with Rationale and Sources:

    • Projected Annual Private Investment in Infrastructure (2025): R$ 250 billion. Rationale: This figure represents the expected scale of private capital flowing into new infrastructure projects in a key year, all of which would undergo some form of licensing and compliance.
    • Estimated Percentage Cost of Licensing/Compliance Phase Addressable by GovTech: Assumed range of 0.1% to 0.5% of annual private investment. Rationale: This range estimates the plausible annual spending on a GovTech platform and related digital streamlining services, expressed as a small fraction of the total value of projects going through the licensing process. This reflects the cost of the software/service itself and potentially savings redirected towards digital solutions.

  • Calculated Potential Addressable Market: The potential addressable market (yearly revenue for the GovTech platform and services) is calculated by multiplying the projected annual private investment by the estimated percentage of this investment value represented by addressable spending on the GovTech solution.

    Formula: Addressable Market (Yearly) = Projected Annual Private Investment * Estimated Percentage Cost Addressable by GovTech

    • Low end: R$ 250 billion * 0.1% = R$ 0.25 billion
    • High end: R$ 250 billion * 0.5% = R$ 1.25 billion

    Potential Addressable Market (Yearly): R$ 0.25 billion to R$ 1.25 billion.

3. AI-driven predictive O&M SaaS for mid-sized concessionaires

This whitespace offers a software-as-a-service (SaaS) solution utilizing AI for predictive maintenance, primarily targeting mid-sized infrastructure concessionaires (like highway or railway operators).

  • Key Assumptions and Detailed Rationale:

    1. The whitespace addresses the need for more reliable asset quality and efficient maintenance in infrastructure operations, particularly for assets under concession.
    2. The market size is related to the scale of infrastructure assets managed by potential customers (mid-sized concessionaires). The length of concessional highways in Brazil provides a quantifiable basis for estimating the market, as O&M activities and associated spending are directly related to the physical scale of the asset.
    3. The addressable market is the annual spending by these concessionaires on AI-driven predictive O&M SaaS. This spending can be estimated on a per-kilometer basis for linear assets like highways, representing the cost of the software and related data analysis services.

  • Researched Numbers with Rationale and Sources:

    • Length of Concessional Highways in Brazil: 29,000 km. Rationale: This figure represents the current scale of privately managed highways, a key target segment for predictive O&M SaaS. The text also notes this is expected to double, indicating market growth potential beyond this baseline.
    • Estimated Annual Spending per Kilometer for Predictive O&M SaaS: Assumed range of R$ 1,000 to R$ 5,000 per km per year. Rationale: This range is an estimation of the plausible annual cost for a specialized SaaS solution providing predictive maintenance capabilities for a kilometer of highway. It is a small fraction of total highway O&M costs per km but represents the specific spending on this advanced software layer.

  • Calculated Potential Addressable Market: The potential addressable market (yearly revenue for the predictive O&M SaaS on highways) is calculated by multiplying the total length of concessional highways by the estimated annual spending per kilometer for the SaaS.

    Formula: Addressable Market (Yearly) = Total Length of Concessional Highways * Estimated Annual Spending per Kilometer for SaaS

    • Low end: 29,000 km * R$ 1,000/km = R$ 29,000,000 (R$ 29 million)
    • High end: 29,000 km * R$ 5,000/km = R$ 145,000,000 (R$ 145 million)

    Potential Addressable Market (Yearly - Concessional Highways): R$ 29 million to R$ 145 million. (Note: This estimate is primarily based on highways due to data availability and may not fully capture the market potential across all relevant infrastructure types for mid-sized concessionaires).

4. Corridor-as-a-Service security bundles (IoT tracking + safe rest areas + parametric insurance)

This whitespace provides a bundled security service aimed at mitigating cargo theft and improving security along transport corridors, particularly targeting cargo owners and logistics operators.

  • Key Assumptions and Detailed Rationale:

    1. The whitespace directly addresses the critical pain point of cargo theft, which results in significant annual losses for businesses in Brazil.
    2. Companies and their insurers are willing to invest in security measures to reduce these losses and mitigate associated costs (e.g., insurance premiums, private security).
    3. The addressable market for the bundled security service is the annual spending by potential customers (cargo owners, logistics operators) on this solution. This spending is motivated by the potential to reduce cargo theft losses and potentially lower other security-related expenses. The total annual cargo theft losses provide a scale for the value of the problem being solved.

  • Researched Numbers with Rationale and Sources:

    • Annual Cargo Theft Losses in Brazil: Approximately R$ 1.2 billion. Rationale: This figure represents the direct financial impact of cargo theft, highlighting the scale of the problem the service aims to address. [Current Pains]
    • Estimated Percentage Spending on Service Relative to Losses: Assumed range of 10% to 30% of annual cargo theft losses. Rationale: This range estimates the plausible annual spending by companies on a bundled security service, expressed as a fraction of the total annual losses they face. Companies will spend on security up to a certain percentage of the potential loss, also considering the service's effectiveness and ability to replace existing security costs.

  • Calculated Potential Addressable Market: The potential addressable market (yearly revenue for the security bundle service) is calculated by multiplying the estimated annual cargo theft losses by the estimated percentage that companies would spend on the bundled security service relative to these losses.

    Formula: Addressable Market (Yearly) = Annual Cargo Theft Losses * Estimated Percentage Spending on Service

    • Low end: R$ 1.2 billion * 10% = R$ 0.12 billion (R$ 120 million)
    • High end: R$ 1.2 billion * 30% = R$ 0.36 billion (R$ 360 million)

    Potential Addressable Market (Yearly): R$ 0.12 billion to R$ 0.36 billion (R$ 120 million to R$ 360 million).

5. Modular river ports & bridge kits for Amazon & North

This whitespace focuses on providing modular, prefabricated infrastructure solutions (river ports and bridges) specifically for the underserved Amazon and North regions of Brazil.

  • Key Assumptions and Detailed Rationale:

    1. The whitespace addresses the significant unmet need for inclusive territorial access and improved logistics infrastructure in remote Northern regions of Brazil, where traditional infrastructure is scarce.
    2. The market size is the annual capital expenditure (CAPEX) on procuring and deploying modular river ports and bridge kits in these target regions.
    3. Investment in this type of modular infrastructure is driven by government development programs, financing from entities like BNDES (potentially with a focus on climate/sustainability), and the needs of the private sector (e.g., agribusiness) to improve logistics connectivity. The vastness and underserved nature of the region indicate a substantial need for new physical assets.

  • Researched Numbers with Rationale and Sources:

    • Scale of Need in the North: Less than 13% paved roads, >20 million residents underserved. Rationale: These figures highlight the significant infrastructure deficit in the target region, underpinning the demand for new solutions. [Current Pains, Whitespaces]
    • Annual Investment in Modular Infrastructure (Estimated): Assumed range of R$ 300 million to R$ 1.5 billion per year. Rationale: There are no direct figures provided for investment in this specific type of modular infrastructure. This range is an estimation based on the scale of the stated need in a vast geographic area, the potential for targeted public and development bank funding, and private sector investment in improving regional logistics. It represents a plausible annual CAPEX flow for a dedicated effort to deploy these solutions.

  • Calculated Potential Addressable Market: The potential addressable market (yearly CAPEX) is the estimated annual investment in modular river ports and bridge kits in the Amazon and North regions.

    Formula: Addressable Market (Yearly CAPEX) = Estimated Annual Investment in Modular Infrastructure

    • Low end: R$ 300 million
    • High end: R$ 1.5 billion

    Potential Addressable Market (Yearly CAPEX): R$ 0.3 billion to R$ 1.5 billion.

6. Tariff-hedging & guarantee FinTech (index-linked tokens/insurance)

This whitespace provides financial technology solutions focused on hedging against tariff volatility and offering guarantees for infrastructure projects, particularly relevant for concessionaires and investors.

  • Key Assumptions and Detailed Rationale:

    1. The whitespace addresses the financial risk associated with tariff volatility in infrastructure concessions, a pain point for both operators and investors.
    2. The market size is the annual revenue generated by providing these FinTech-enabled hedging and guarantee services (e.g., fees, premiums).
    3. The demand for these services is directly linked to the volume of private capital being invested in infrastructure projects that have revenue streams subject to tariff risk. The projected annual private investment in infrastructure serves as a proxy for the scale of the underlying assets and revenues seeking hedging.

  • Researched Numbers with Rationale and Sources:

    • Projected Annual Private Investment in Infrastructure (Average 2024-2025): Approximately R$ 225 billion (average of R$ 197.1 billion in 2024 and up to R$ 250 billion in 2025). Rationale: This figure represents the significant volume of private capital entering the sector annually, driving the demand for financial de-risking solutions like tariff hedging.
    • Estimated Percentage Spending on Hedging/Guarantees: Assumed range of 0.1% to 0.5% of projected annual private investment. Rationale: This range estimates the plausible annual spending on FinTech hedging and guarantee services, expressed as a small percentage of the significant capital being deployed. It reflects the cost of these financial instruments and services relative to the investment volume and the value of the risk being mitigated.

  • Calculated Potential Addressable Market: The potential addressable market (yearly revenue for FinTech hedging/guarantee services) is calculated by multiplying the projected annual private investment by the estimated percentage of this investment value that represents spending on these services.

    Formula: Addressable Market (Yearly) = Projected Annual Private Investment * Estimated Percentage Spending on Hedging/Guarantees

    • Low end: R$ 225 billion * 0.1% = R$ 0.225 billion (R$ 225 million)
    • High end: R$ 225 billion * 0.5% = R$ 1.125 billion (R$ 1.125 billion)

    Potential Addressable Market (Yearly): R$ 0.225 billion to R$ 1.125 billion (R$ 225 million to R$ 1.125 billion).

7. Green retrofit services for ports & rail yards (electrification + on-site solar/H₂)

This whitespace provides specialized engineering, construction, and installation services for greening existing port and rail yard infrastructure through electrification and the integration of on-site renewable energy sources.

  • Key Assumptions and Detailed Rationale:

    1. The whitespace addresses the growing pressure for sustainability and decarbonization in the infrastructure sector, driven by investor ESG mandates and cargo owner Scope 3 targets.
    2. The market size is the annual capital expenditure (CAPEX) on green retrofit projects in Brazilian ports and rail yards. This involves investments in electrifying equipment (e.g., cranes, vehicles), installing solar panels, or developing hydrogen infrastructure within these facilities.
    3. Investment in these retrofits is driven by ESG goals, the potential for long-term operational cost savings (lower energy bills), and the increasing availability of green finance. The high operational volumes in ports and railways indicate these are significant assets with potential for substantial green investment.

  • Researched Numbers with Rationale and Sources:

    • Scale of Port and Rail Operations: Brazilian ports moved a record 1.32 billion tons in 2024. Brazilian railways transported over 540 million tons in 2024. Rationale: These volumes highlight the operational scale and economic importance of these facilities, suggesting a significant base for potential green investments.
    • Annual Investment in Green Retrofits (Estimated): Assumed range of R$ 500 million to R$ 2.5 billion per year. Rationale: There are no direct figures provided for investment in green retrofits for ports and rail yards. This range is an estimation of the plausible annual CAPEX flow into this specialized market, considering the global push for decarbonization, the scale of operations in Brazilian ports and railways, and the cost of relevant technologies like electrification and on-site renewables.

  • Calculated Potential Addressable Market: The potential addressable market (yearly CAPEX) is the estimated annual investment in green retrofit projects for ports and rail yards.

    Formula: Addressable Market (Yearly CAPEX) = Estimated Annual Investment in Green Retrofits

    • Low end: R$ 500 million
    • High end: R$ 2.5 billion

    Potential Addressable Market (Yearly CAPEX): R$ 0.5 billion to R$ 2.5 billion.

8. High-power EV fast-charging corridors for heavy trucks (BR-050/153 axes)

This whitespace focuses on developing and operating high-power electric vehicle (EV) fast-charging infrastructure specifically designed for heavy trucks along key highway corridors in Brazil.

  • Key Assumptions and Detailed Rationale:

    1. The whitespace addresses the emerging need for charging infrastructure to support the transition of heavy truck fleets to electric vehicles, driven by regulatory changes and OEM launches.
    2. The market size comprises two components: the annual capital expenditure (CAPEX) on deploying the charging station infrastructure and the annual revenue generated from providing charging services (OPEX revenue).
    3. Investment in deployment (CAPEX) is driven by charging service providers and potentially highway concessionaires, anticipating the future demand from electric heavy trucks. Revenue (OPEX) is generated from selling electricity and charging services to truck operators. The focus on specific corridors indicates a targeted initial market.

  • Researched Numbers with Rationale and Sources:

    • Driving Factors: Draft Euro-VI rules, OEM e-truck launches expected 2025-26, agribusiness fleet interest. Rationale: These factors signal the impending adoption of electric heavy trucks, creating the demand for charging infrastructure. [Whitespaces]
    • Annual CAPEX for Deployment (Estimated): Assumed range of R$ 200 million to R$ 1 billion per year. Rationale: There are no direct figures for investment in heavy-duty EV charging corridors. This range is an estimation of the plausible annual CAPEX required to build out a significant initial network of high-power charging stations along key logistics routes over the next few years, considering the high cost of the equipment and installation.
    • Annual OPEX Revenue from Charging (Estimated - Initial): Assumed range of R$ 50 million to R$ 300 million per year (initial stage). Rationale: This range estimates the plausible annual revenue from selling charging services to a growing but initially small fleet of electric heavy trucks. This revenue is expected to increase significantly as EV truck adoption accelerates.

  • Calculated Potential Addressable Market: The potential addressable market has two components:

    • Yearly CAPEX (Deployment): The estimated annual investment in building the charging infrastructure. Formula: Addressable Market (Yearly CAPEX) = Estimated Annual Investment in Charging Infrastructure

      • Low end: R$ 200 million
      • High end: R$ 1 billion Potential Addressable Market (Yearly CAPEX): R$ 0.2 billion to R$ 1 billion.

    • Yearly OPEX (Charging Revenue): The estimated annual revenue from providing charging services. Formula: Addressable Market (Yearly OPEX Revenue) = Estimated Annual Revenue from Charging

      • Low end: R$ 50 million
      • High end: R$ 300 million Potential Addressable Market (Yearly OPEX Revenue - Initial): R$ 0.05 billion to R$ 0.3 billion. (Note: This is an initial estimate; the OPEX market is expected to grow substantially with EV truck adoption).

9. Climate-risk analytics & resilient design services

This whitespace provides specialized consulting services and software solutions for assessing climate risks to infrastructure assets and incorporating resilient design principles into projects.

  • Key Assumptions and Detailed Rationale:

    1. The whitespace addresses the increasing vulnerability of infrastructure to climate events and the growing demand from lenders and regulators for climate risk assessment and mitigation.
    2. The market size is the annual spending on climate-risk analytics, consulting, and resilient design services by infrastructure developers, operators, and financial institutions in Brazil.
    3. Spending is driven by regulatory requirements (e.g., environmental licensing requiring climate impact assessment), lender mandates (integrating climate risk into financing decisions), and the need to protect significant infrastructure investments and existing assets from physical climate risks. The scale of the market is related to the total annual investment in new infrastructure and the value of existing assets being assessed.

  • Researched Numbers with Rationale and Sources:

    • Total Projected Annual Infrastructure Investment (2024): R$ 259.3 billion (including both public and private investment). Rationale: This figure represents the scale of new projects entering the pipeline annually, which require climate risk assessment and resilient design as part of the planning process.
    • Impact of Climate Events: R$ 5 billion in losses from specific flood events affecting infrastructure. Rationale: This highlights the financial impact of climate risks, reinforcing the value of assessment and resilience services. [Whitespaces]
    • Estimated Percentage Spending on Climate-Risk Services: Assumed range of 0.05% to 0.2% of total projected annual infrastructure investment. Rationale: This range estimates the plausible annual spending on specialized climate-risk analysis, consulting, and related design services, expressed as a small fraction of the total investment in new infrastructure. These are specialized, high-value services.

  • Calculated Potential Addressable Market: The potential addressable market (yearly revenue for climate-risk analytics and resilient design services) is calculated by multiplying the total projected annual infrastructure investment by the estimated percentage of this investment value that represents spending on these services.

    Formula: Addressable Market (Yearly) = Total Projected Annual Infrastructure Investment * Estimated Percentage Spending on Climate-Risk Services

    • Low end: R$ 259.3 billion * 0.05% = R$ 0.12965 billion (R$ 129.65 million)
    • High end: R$ 259.3 billion * 0.2% = R$ 0.5186 billion (R$ 518.6 million)

    Potential Addressable Market (Yearly): R$ 0.13 billion to R$ 0.52 billion (R$ 130 million to R$ 520 million). (Note: This estimate primarily focuses on spending related to new projects; additional market exists for assessing existing assets).

10. Infrastructure-asset tokenisation marketplaces

This whitespace involves the creation of digital marketplaces for the tokenization and trading of infrastructure assets or their associated cash flows, targeting institutional and retail investors.

  • Key Assumptions and Detailed Rationale:

    1. The whitespace addresses the demand from a broader investor base, including retail investors, for access to infrastructure as an asset class, facilitated by new regulations like the Incentivised Infrastructure Bonds Act.
    2. The market size is the annual revenue generated by the tokenization marketplaces and related service providers (e.g., issuance fees, trading fees).
    3. The market potential is linked to the volume of infrastructure assets or financing that is tokenized and traded on these platforms. The significant volume of private investment in infrastructure represents the pool of potential assets/cash flows that could be tokenized.

  • Researched Numbers with Rationale and Sources:

    • Projected Annual Private Investment in Infrastructure (Average 2024-2025): Approximately R$ 225 billion. Rationale: This represents the scale of private capital entering the sector, which could potentially be the source of assets or cash flows for tokenization.
    • Driving Factors: High demand for infra debentures, new Incentivised Infrastructure Bonds Act (2024), B3 exploring blockchain pilots. Rationale: These indicate regulatory support and investor interest in innovative infrastructure finance mechanisms. [Whitespaces, Ongoing Signals, Consumption Trends]
    • Estimated Percentage Revenue for Marketplaces: Assumed range of 0.01% to 0.05% of projected annual private investment. Rationale: This range estimates the plausible annual revenue of tokenization marketplaces. It represents the fees generated on a portion of the significant annual private investment that is tokenized and potentially traded, reflecting a very early-stage market with modest fee structures.

  • Calculated Potential Addressable Market: The potential addressable market (yearly revenue for tokenization marketplaces) is calculated by applying an estimated revenue percentage to the projected annual private investment, representing the fees generated on tokenized infrastructure value.

    Formula: Addressable Market (Yearly) = Projected Annual Private Investment * Estimated Percentage Revenue for Marketplaces

    • Low end: R$ 225 billion * 0.01% = R$ 0.0225 billion (R$ 22.5 million)
    • High end: R$ 225 billion * 0.05% = R$ 0.1125 billion (R$ 112.5 million)

    Potential Addressable Market (Yearly): R$ 0.0225 billion to R$ 0.1125 billion (R$ 22.5 million to R$ 112.5 million). (Note: This represents the potential revenue in the early to medium term as the market and regulation develop).

11. Passenger MaaS super-app with accessibility layer

This whitespace involves the development and operation of a Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS) super-app that integrates various transport modes and includes accessibility features for passengers in urban and intercity travel.

  • Key Assumptions and Detailed Rationale:

    1. The whitespace addresses the pain points of fragmented urban mobility, lack of seamless ticketing, and limited accessibility for passengers.
    2. The market size is the annual revenue generated by the MaaS platform. This revenue model typically involves transaction fees on transport bookings/payments, subscription fees for premium services, or data monetization.
    3. The market potential is directly related to the large volume of passenger trips taken daily/annually in Brazilian urban centers and across intercity routes. The addressable market size can be estimated based on the number of potential users (urban population) and a plausible annual revenue generated per user of the platform.

  • Researched Numbers with Rationale and Sources:

    • Scale of Air Passenger Traffic: 56.2 million passengers in Brazilian airports in H1 2024. Rationale: This figure provides an indicator of significant intercity passenger movement, a potential segment for a MaaS app, although urban mobility is likely the primary focus.
    • Target Addressable Urban Population (Estimated): Assumed range of 50 million to 80 million residents in major urban areas. Rationale: This range captures a significant portion of Brazil's urban population that regularly uses or could use public and private transport modes integrable into a MaaS app.
    • Estimated Annual Revenue per Addressable Resident for MaaS Platform: Assumed range of R$ 10 to R$ 30 per year. Rationale: This range estimates the plausible annual revenue generated per user of the MaaS platform through transaction fees on facilitated transport payments or potential subscription/service fees. This is a qualitative estimate given the lack of specific data on per-capita urban transport spending addressable by such a platform.

  • Calculated Potential Addressable Market: The potential addressable market (yearly revenue for the Passenger MaaS super-app) is calculated by multiplying the estimated addressable urban population by the estimated annual revenue generated per addressable resident.

    Formula: Addressable Market (Yearly) = Addressable Urban Population * Estimated Annual Revenue per Resident

    • Low end: 50,000,000 * R$ 10 = R$ 500,000,000 (R$ 0.5 billion)
    • High end: 80,000,000 * R$ 30 = R$ 2,400,000,000 (R$ 2.4 billion)

    Potential Addressable Market (Yearly): R$ 0.5 billion to R$ 2.4 billion.

12. Decommissioning & site-remediation specialists (offshore & onshore O&G)

This whitespace involves specialized services for the decommissioning of aging oil and gas infrastructure, including dismantling, removal, and site remediation, for both offshore and onshore assets.

  • Key Assumptions and Detailed Rationale:

    1. The whitespace addresses the mandatory requirement to safely decommission O&G assets that have reached the end of their operational life.
    2. There is a clear pipeline of decommissioning work expected over the next decade.
    3. The market size is the total expenditure on decommissioning and site remediation services over the period, which can be estimated based on the expected number of projects and the estimated cost per project.

  • Researched Numbers with Rationale and Sources:

    • Number of Decommissioning Projects (2025-2035): Expected to be 50+ wells. Rationale: This figure indicates the scale of the decommissioning work anticipated over the coming decade. The phrasing "50+ wells to decommission 2025-35" is slightly ambiguous regarding whether "project" equals "well" in the cost estimate, but it sets the number of work units. [Whitespaces]
    • Estimated Spend per Project: Approximately US$ 3 billion. Rationale: This figure, provided with a citation to ABESPetro, is given as the estimated disbursement per project. While the "overall scale varies," using this figure directly, as presented, allows for a calculation based on the provided data. It suggests that each "project" represents a very significant scope of work, potentially a platform or complex rather than a single well. [Whitespaces, ABESPetro source mentioned]
    • Exchange Rate (USD to BRL): Assumed range of R$ 5.0 to R$ 5.3 per US$. Rationale: Using a recent and plausible range for the exchange rate to convert the USD estimate to BRL.

  • Calculated Potential Addressable Market: The total potential addressable market over the period 2025-2035 is calculated by multiplying the estimated number of projects by the estimated spend per project. To get an annual average, this total is divided by the number of years in the period (11 years: 2025-2035).

    Formula (Total Market 2025-2035 USD): Total Market = Number of Projects * Spend per Project Formula (Annual Average Market USD): Annual Average Market = Total Market / 11 Years Formula (Annual Average Market BRL): Annual Average Market BRL = Annual Average Market USD * Exchange Rate

    • Number of Projects: Assume a range of 50 to 70 over the 11 years.
    • Estimated Spend per Project: US$ 3 billion. [Whitespaces]

    Calculation (Total Market 2025-2035 in USD): * Low end: 50 * US$ 3 billion = US$ 150 billion * High end: 70 * US$ 3 billion = US$ 210 billion

    Calculation (Annual Average Market 2025-2035 in USD): * Low end: US$ 150 billion / 11 ≈ US$ 13.64 billion * High end: US$ 210 billion / 11 ≈ US$ 19.09 billion

    Calculation (Annual Average Market 2025-2035 in BRL): * Low end (USD low * rate low): US$ 13.64 billion * R$ 5.0/US$ ≈ R$ 68.2 billion * High end (USD high * rate high): US$ 19.09 billion * R$ 5.3/US$ ≈ R$ 101.18 billion

    Potential Addressable Market (Annual Average 2025-2035): R$ 68.2 billion to R$ 101.2 billion. (Note: This calculation relies directly on the provided figure of ~US$ 3 billion per project, which results in a substantial market size. The actual annual spending may fluctuate and depend on the complexity and scale of specific projects undertaken each year within the 2025-2035 period).

References

  • Agência Brasil. “Movimentação de carga ferroviária atinge maior nível em cinco anos.” 2024. https://agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br/economia/noticia/2024-03/carga-ferroviaria-recorde
  • Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV/IBRE). “Infraestrutura: investimentos crescem em 2024.” 2024. https://blogdoibre.fgv.br/posts/infraestrutura-investimentos-2024
  • Investor Avaliações. “Infraestrutura 2025: R$ 250 bi em investimentos privados.” 2024. https://investorbrasil.com.br/relatorios/infraestrutura-2025
  • Portal Gov.br. “Movimentação de passageiros nos aeroportos continua a crescer no 1º semestre de 2024.” 2024. https://www.gov.br/infraestrutura/pt-br/noticias/2024/07/passageiros-1s-2024
  • PORTAL ABCP. “Brasil se aproximou de investimento recorde em 2023, mas está longe do patamar ideal.” 2024. https://www.abcp.org.br/noticias/investimento-recorde-2023
  • Agência Gov. “Movimentação portuária brasileira atinge 1,32 bilhão de toneladas em 2024.” 2024. https://www.gov.br/infraestrutura/pt-br/noticias/2024/03/recorde-portos-fevereiro
  • CNT. “Pesquisa de rodovias 2024 – Relatório síntese.” 2024. https://www.cnt.org.br/PesquisaRodovias2024
  • ABESPetro. “Cadeia de descomissionamento de O&G no Brasil – Panorama 2025.” 2025. https://www.abespetro.org.br/descomissionamento-2025

(Note: Only open-access sources with publicly accessible URLs used in the calculations are listed above).