Energy in Brazil Current Demand Behavior Analysis¶
Demand Behavior¶
The final customers in the Brazilian energy sector are broadly categorized into Business-to-Consumer (B2C) and Business-to-Business (B2B) segments across both the electricity and oil & gas value chains.
In the Electricity Sector, B2C customers primarily consist of captive consumers, which include residential users, small commercial establishments, and some smaller industrial users who are supplied by distribution companies at regulated tariffs. Major distribution companies like Neoenergia serve over 15 million consumer units, while Cemig serves approximately 9.4 million clients, indicating a vast number of individual and small business consumers in this segment. B2B customers are mainly the free consumers in the Free Contracting Environment (ACL), encompassing larger industrial and commercial entities. Eligibility for the free market expanded in 2024 to include all high and medium voltage consumers, leading to a significant increase in the number of consumers in this segment.
In the Oil and Gas Sector, B2C customers include individual vehicle owners purchasing fuels at retail stations, residential consumers of LPG for cooking and heating, and residential users of piped natural gas. Companies like Raízen, through its Shell brand, interact with a large customer base that includes nearly 50 million customers across its markets, including Brazil, illustrating the scale of individual consumers in the fuel market. B2B customers are diverse, including fuel distributors and resellers, large industrial and commercial consumers of fuels, and various users of natural gas such as industries, power plants, and commercial establishments.
Growth/Decline in the Number of Customers and Consumption¶
Analyzing the growth or decline in the number of customers requires looking at both the increase in connection points and changes in consumption patterns within different segments.
In the Electricity Sector, while overall national electricity consumption saw a slight retraction of 0.2% in December 2024 compared to the same month in 2023, following 22 months of expansion, the number of consumers in the Free Market (ACL) experienced substantial growth. In December 2024, the number of free market consumers increased by 55.7% compared to December 2023. This expansion aligns with regulatory changes allowing more consumers to migrate to the free market. The regulated market (serving captive consumers) saw a 1.2% increase in the number of consumer units in December 2024, despite a decrease in consumption in this market segment, indicating a growth in connection points even with some migration to the free market. The industrial class within the captive market showed increased consumption in December 2024 across all regions, suggesting continued demand from this business segment within the regulated environment.
For the Oil and Gas Sector, the consumption of natural gas in Brazil saw a modest growth of 0.7% in 2024 compared to 2023. This growth was primarily driven by a significant increase (22.9%) in the segment of natural gas for electricity generation. The commercial and residential segments also experienced growth in natural gas consumption, with increases of 2.4% and 1.4% respectively in 2024, indicating a continued, albeit slower, expansion in the number of residential and commercial customers utilizing piped gas. Conversely, the automotive segment showed a decline of 14.3% in natural gas consumption in 2024. While specific numbers on the total count of individual and business customers across all oil and gas sub-segments for 2024 and 2025 are not available, the consumption data provides insight into demand trends within these customer categories.
The table below summarizes the observed growth or decline based on the available information for 2024:
| Sector | Consumer Segment | Metric | 2024 Trend (vs. 2023) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Electricity | B2B (Free Consumers) | Number of Consumers | Growing (+55.7%) | Driven by market eligibility expansion. |
| Electricity | B2C (Captive Consumers) | Number of Consumer Units | Growing (+1.2%) | Despite migration to the free market. |
| Electricity | Overall National | Consumption (December 2024) | Slight Decline (-0.2%) | Following a period of expansion. |
| Electricity | Industrial (Captive) | Consumption (December 2024) | Growing (+3.8%) | Indicates continued business demand in regulated market. |
| Oil & Gas | Natural Gas (Overall) | Consumption (2024) | Growing (+0.7%) | Primarily due to power generation segment. |
| Oil & Gas | Natural Gas (Commercial) | Consumption (2024) | Growing (+2.4%) | Indicates growth in business customers using piped gas. |
| Oil & Gas | Natural Gas (Residential) | Consumption (2024) | Growing (+1.4%) | Indicates growth in individual customers using piped gas. |
| Oil & Gas | Natural Gas (Automotive) | Consumption (2024) | Declining (-14.3%) | Trend in fuel consumption. |
| Oil & Gas | Crude Oil Production | Average Daily Production (2024) | Slight Decline (-1.29%) | Compared to 2023, but near record levels. |
Overall, the data for 2024 and early 2025 indicates a notable growth in the number of business consumers in the free electricity market due to regulatory changes. The number of individual consumers in the regulated electricity market is still growing in terms of connection units, although overall consumption in this segment saw a recent slight dip. In the natural gas sector, there is growth in consumption from residential and commercial segments, suggesting an increase in the number of customers in these categories, while the automotive segment is declining.
References¶
- ABEGÁS - ABEGÁS Comunicacao. [https://abegas.org.br/]
- CanalEnergia. [https://canalenergia.com.br/]
- EPE (Empresa de Pesquisa Energética). [https://www.epe.gov.br/]
- Eurasia Group. [https://www.eurasiagroup.com/]
- IEA (International Energy Agency). [https://www.iea.org/]
- Iberdrola. [https://www.iberdrola.com/]
- The Conference Board. [https://www.conference-board.org/]
- Agência Nacional do Petróleo, Gás Natural e Biocombustíveis (ANP). [https://www.gov.br/anp/pt-br]
- Raízen. [https://www.raizen.com.br/]
- Agência Brasil - EBC. [https://agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br/en]
- BloombergNEF. [https://about.bnef.com/]
- U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). [https://www.eia.gov/]
- World Bank. [https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/brazil]