Energy in Brazil Current Behavior Changes Analysis¶
Ongoing Behavior Changes¶
Current behavior changes among final customers in the Brazilian energy sector are notably impacting relationships and demand across the value chain in 2024 and 2025. In the Electricity Sector, a significant shift is the substantial growth in the number of Business-to-Business (B2B) free consumers (those in the Free Contracting Environment - ACL), primarily driven by the expansion of eligibility in 2024 to all high and medium voltage consumers. This segment, characterized by larger industrial and commercial entities, is increasingly seeking customized energy solutions and actively managing costs by negotiating directly with generators or commercializers. This contrasts with the traditional behavior of these consumers being supplied at regulated tariffs by distribution companies. Meanwhile, the number of B2C captive consumer units (residential, small commercial, and smaller industrial users) in the regulated market continues to grow in terms of connection points (+1.2% in December 2024), even though overall consumption in this segment experienced a slight decrease (-0.2% overall national consumption in December 2024). Another behavioral change impacting the distribution segment is the ongoing regularization of previously informal connections in low-income communities. This process integrates these consumers into the formal market, allowing them access to social tariffs and other services, and simultaneously reducing energy losses for distribution companies.
In the Oil and Gas Sector, B2C customer behavior is influenced by price sensitivity, particularly impacting fuel choices at retail stations. Consumers are showing a propensity to shift towards hydrous ethanol when its price is more favorable compared to gasoline. Residential consumption of piped natural gas and LPG continues to grow. For B2B customers, there is a growing consumption of natural gas, especially driven by the power generation segment, which saw a 22.9% increase in 2024. Commercial and industrial segments also show growth in natural gas consumption (+2.4% and +3.8% respectively in 2024), indicating a behavior of opting for natural gas as a cleaner and potentially more cost-efficient energy source. Conversely, the automotive segment's consumption of natural gas declined by 14.3% in 2024. Across both sectors, there is an increasing awareness and preference, particularly among larger businesses and potentially influencing B2C as well, towards renewable energy sources and energy efficiency, driven by climate concerns and sustainability goals.
These behavior changes are directly impacting relationships within the value chain. In the electricity sector, the growth of the free market is fostering more direct, bilateral relationships between generators/commercializers and large consumers, reducing the reliance on the regulated auction environment (ACR) for a significant portion of energy procurement. This is increasing the market share and influence of commercializing companies. For distribution companies, the relationship with captive consumers remains regulated, but the focus is shifting towards improving service quality, reducing losses (including through regularization programs), and managing a growing number of connection points despite potential stagnant or slightly declining per-unit consumption in the regulated market. The increasing integration of distributed renewable generation (like rooftop solar), often initiated by consumers, is also changing the relationship between consumers and distributors, requiring grid modernization and new regulatory frameworks.
In the oil and gas sector, the growth in independent E&P production and the "Novo Mercado de Gás" initiative are altering supply relationships, introducing more players beyond Petrobras and increasing the complexity and potential for competition in the supply of crude oil and natural gas to refineries, processors, and transportation networks. The surge in natural gas trading activity highlights the development of new commercial relationships and market dynamics in this segment. The changing demand patterns for fuels (shift to ethanol, decline in automotive gas) necessitate adjustments in the logistics and commercial strategies of fuel distributors (Vibra Energia, Raízen, Ipiranga) and retailers.
Overall, these behavior changes signify a move towards greater consumer agency, particularly in the electricity sector's free market, and a growing preference for cleaner energy sources where feasible. These shifts are compelling companies across both value chains to adapt their business models, enhance efficiency, and develop more flexible and customer-centric approaches.
Table of the impact of these changes on the value chain¶
| Value Chain Stage | Behavior Change | Impact on Relationships | Impact on Demand |
|---|---|---|---|
| Electricity Generation | Increased demand for renewable sources from free consumers. | Growing direct contracts with commercializers/free consumers, reducing reliance on regulated auctions. | Increased demand for renewable energy generation capacity. |
| Electricity Transmission | Increased and geographically dispersed renewable generation. Demand shifts between regulated and free markets. | Increased need for coordination with diverse generators and commercializers. Pressure for grid expansion and modernization. | Changes in power flow patterns and intensity across the grid. |
| Electricity Distribution | Growth in connection units (B2C). Regularization of informal consumers. Increase in distributed generation (rooftop solar). | Continued regulated relationship with captive consumers, but focus on service quality and loss reduction. New technical and commercial relationships with prosumers (consumers with distributed generation). | Stagnant or slightly declining per-unit consumption in the regulated market. Increased demand for grid connection services. |
| Electricity Commercialization | Significant migration of B2B consumers to free market. Seeking customized contracts. | Exponential growth in bilateral contract negotiations and trading activity. Increased competition among commercializers. | Substantial increase in demand volume within the free market segment. |
| Oil & Gas E&P | Growing independent production. | Changes in supply dynamics to downstream segments, potentially increasing competition for feedstock supply. | Continued strong demand for crude oil and natural gas, especially pre-salt. |
| Oil & Gas Refining & Processing | Changes in fuel demand mix (ethanol vs. gasoline). Growing natural gas processing needs. | Need to adapt refining output to changing fuel preferences. Increased commercial relationships for natural gas supply. | Shifting demand for specific refined products. Increased demand for natural gas processing capacity. |
| Oil & Gas Transportation & Distribution | Growing natural gas consumption in power gen, commercial, residential. Declining automotive gas consumption. Shift in fuel logistics due to changing demand patterns. | Increased demand for natural gas pipeline capacity and distribution networks, fostering new access relationships. Adjustments in fuel transportation and distribution logistics. | Increased demand for natural gas transportation and distribution services in certain segments. Decreased demand in the automotive gas distribution segment. |
| Oil & Gas Commercialization | Growing natural gas consumption in specific B2B/B2C segments. Shift to ethanol in retail fuel. Growing LPG consumption. | Increased sales and marketing efforts in growing natural gas segments. Adjustments in fuel retail strategies and supply chain management. | Increased demand for natural gas and LPG products in specific markets. Shifting demand between gasoline and ethanol at retail. |
References¶
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