Mining in Brazil Potential Addressable Market¶

Addressable Market Calculation¶

Integrated Digital Logistics Platforms for Multi-Party Mining Supply Chains¶

Key assumptions and detailed rationale: The potential addressable market for integrated digital logistics platforms is estimated based on the total value of mineral transport in Brazil and the potential revenue capture from providing a digital service that enhances efficiency and visibility.
- Assumption 1: Total Annual Mineral Transport Value. This is the total value of minerals moved through logistics networks in Brazil, both domestically and for export. This value serves as a proxy for the scale of the logistics activity that the platform would address.
- Assumption 2: Market Adoption Rate. This represents the percentage of the total mineral transport value that would eventually be managed or influenced by integrated digital logistics platforms. Adoption would likely start with larger players and gradually extend to smaller ones and their interactions with third-party logistics providers.
- Assumption 3: Revenue Capture per Unit of Value. This is the revenue generated by the platform provider for facilitating logistics services or providing data/optimization tools, expressed as a percentage of the value of the minerals transported through the platform. This could be a per-transaction fee, a subscription based on volume, or a share of efficiency savings.
- Formula: Addressable Market = (Total Annual Mineral Transport Value in Brazil) * (% of Market Adopting Platforms) * (Revenue per Unit of Value for Platform Service)
Researched numbers with rationale and sources:
- Total Annual Mineral Transport Value: The total gross revenue of the Brazilian mineral sector in 2024 was R$ 270.8 billion. This figure represents the value of the minerals produced and sold, which is closely related to the value being transported. While not solely transport value, it's the best available proxy for the scale of economic activity underpinned by logistics. We will use R$ 270.8 billion as the base value.
- Market Adoption Rate: Based on the identified demand signals (customer pain, unmet need for visibility) and offer signals (Mining 4.0 push, digital control towers), there is clear momentum. A conservative initial adoption could be 10%, growing significantly over time. A plausible range for potential penetration in the near-to-medium term could be 10% to 40%.
- Revenue Capture per Unit of Value: This is challenging to estimate precisely. Digital platforms can generate revenue through service fees, transaction fees, or by enabling efficiency gains. Based on potential value capture from improved logistics efficiency (reducing the "Custo Brasil") and service provision, a revenue capture of 0.1% to 0.5% of the transported mineral value seems a reasonable range for the platform service provider.
Calculated potential addressable market with defined ranges:
- Addressable Market (Low Estimate) = R$ 270.8 billion * 10% * 0.1% = R$ 27.08 million
- Addressable Market (High Estimate) = R$ 270.8 billion * 40% * 0.5% = R$ 541.6 million
- Estimated Annual Addressable Market Range: R$ 27 million to R$ 542 million. This represents the potential annual revenue for providers of integrated digital logistics platforms serving the Brazilian mining sector.

Domestic Value-Added Processing for Strategic & Critical Minerals¶

Key assumptions and detailed rationale: The addressable market for domestic value-added processing of strategic and critical minerals is quantified based on the potential increase in value by processing these minerals within Brazil rather than exporting them in a less processed form.
- Assumption 1: Potential Value Uplift from Domestic Processing. This is the difference in market value between exporting raw or concentrated critical minerals and exporting them as higher-value, processed products (e.g., turning lithium concentrate into lithium hydroxide). This uplift represents the potential market size for domestic processing facilities and services.
- Assumption 2: Scale of Critical Mineral Activity Targeted by Investment. While precise current production volumes and values for all critical minerals are not available, significant investment is projected for the sector, with a growing focus on critical minerals. A portion of this investment is expected to translate into production that would be subject to potential domestic processing.
- Assumption 3: Potential Value Add as a Percentage of Total Sector Revenue. Due to the lack of specific volume and price data for individual critical minerals at different processing stages, we will estimate the potential annual value added by domestic processing as a percentage of the total current mining sector revenue. This is a broad approach but reflects the strategic importance and growth potential of this area.
- Formula: Addressable Market ≈ (Total Annual Mining Sector Revenue) * (Estimated Percentage of Revenue Attributable to Critical Minerals with Processing Potential) * (Estimated Percentage Value Uplift from Domestic Processing)
- Simplified Formula (due to data limitations): Addressable Market = (Total Annual Mining Sector Revenue) * (Estimated Percentage of Total Revenue Representing Potential Annual Value Add from Domestic Processing of Critical Minerals)
Researched numbers with rationale and sources:
- Total Annual Mining Sector Revenue: R$ 270.8 billion in 2024.
- Estimated Percentage of Total Revenue Representing Potential Annual Value Add: The knowledge highlights a significant push for domestic value addition and notes substantial projected investments (US$ 68.4 billion for 2025-2029) with a focus on critical minerals. This suggests a considerable potential for value capture. While critical minerals may not yet constitute a dominant portion of current revenue (like iron ore), the value added by processing could be a meaningful percentage of the total sector value as this segment grows. Let's estimate that the annual value added from processing critical minerals could represent a range of 2% to 8% of the total current mining sector revenue. This range is broad, reflecting the early stage and variability across different critical minerals.
Calculated potential addressable market with defined ranges:
- Addressable Market (Low Estimate) = R$ 270.8 billion * 2% = R$ 5.416 billion
- Addressable Market (High Estimate) = R$ 270.8 billion * 8% = R$ 21.664 billion
- Estimated Annual Addressable Market Range: R$ 5.4 billion to R$ 21.7 billion. This represents the potential annual value added to the Brazilian economy through increased domestic processing of strategic and critical minerals.

Specialized Infrastructure & Logistics for Non-Bulk Critical Minerals¶

Key assumptions and detailed rationale: The addressable market for specialized infrastructure and logistics for non-bulk critical minerals is estimated based on the potential spending on these specific services, which are distinct from bulk commodity logistics and are necessary to support the growth of the critical minerals sector and potential domestic processing.
- Assumption 1: Scale of Critical Mineral Production/Processing Requiring Specialized Logistics. As Brazil develops its critical mineral resources and potentially increases domestic processing, a corresponding volume of these non-bulk materials will require specialized handling and transport.
- Assumption 2: Cost of Specialized Logistics relative to Mineral Value Added. Specialized logistics for materials like chemical concentrates or refined products are more complex and costly per unit than bulk transport. We assume this cost is a percentage of the value added by processing, or related to the overall value of these materials.
- Assumption 3: Addressable Market as a Percentage of Value Added. Due to the difficulty in quantifying specific volumes and per-unit logistics costs for diverse non-bulk critical minerals, we will estimate the addressable market for specialized logistics services and infrastructure usage fees as a percentage of the estimated annual value added by domestic processing of critical minerals (calculated in Whitespace 2).
- Formula: Addressable Market = (Estimated Annual Value Added by Domestic Processing of Critical Minerals) * (Estimated Percentage of Value Added Representing Specialized Logistics Costs)
Researched numbers with rationale and sources:
- Estimated Annual Value Added by Domestic Processing of Critical Minerals: Based on the calculation for Whitespace 2, this ranges from R$ 5.4 billion to R$ 21.7 billion annually.
- Estimated Percentage of Value Added Representing Specialized Logistics Costs: Logistics costs are a significant part of the mining value chain. For bulk commodities, they can be 20-40% of the delivered price. For specialized chemicals or high-value concentrates, the cost structure is different. Let's estimate that the specialized logistics costs for these non-bulk critical minerals represent 5% to 15% of the value added through domestic processing. This range accounts for the specialized handling, security, and potentially different transport modes required.
Calculated potential addressable market with defined ranges:
- Using the low range of Value Added (R$ 5.4 billion) and low percentage (5%): R$ 5.4 billion * 5% = R$ 270 million
- Using the high range of Value Added (R$ 21.7 billion) and high percentage (15%): R$ 21.7 billion * 15% = R$ 3.255 billion
- Estimated Annual Addressable Market Range: R$ 270 million to R$ 3.3 billion. This represents the potential annual spending on specialized logistics services and infrastructure for non-bulk critical minerals.

Secondary Sourcing & Upgrading of Strategic Minerals from Mine Waste¶

Key assumptions and detailed rationale: The addressable market for secondary sourcing and upgrading of strategic minerals from mine waste is based on the potential revenue generated by extracting and selling valuable minerals from existing tailings and waste rock piles, turning environmental liabilities into potential assets.
- Assumption 1: Presence of Economically Recoverable Strategic Minerals in Waste. Existing mine waste contains residual amounts of valuable minerals, including potentially critical ones, that can be recovered using current or emerging technologies.
- Assumption 2: Revenue Potential from Recovered Minerals. The recovered minerals can be sold at market prices, creating a new revenue stream.
- Assumption 3: Addressable Market as a Percentage of Total Sector Revenue. Due to the vast but unquantified volume of waste and the variability in grades and recovery rates, we will estimate the potential annual revenue from selling minerals recovered from waste as a percentage of the total current mining sector revenue. This provides a high-level estimate of the economic opportunity.
- Formula: Addressable Market = (Total Annual Mining Sector Revenue) * (Estimated Percentage of Total Revenue Representing Potential Annual Revenue from Secondary Sourcing/Upgrading)
Researched numbers with rationale and sources:
- Total Annual Mining Sector Revenue: R$ 270.8 billion in 2024.
- Estimated Percentage of Total Revenue Representing Potential Annual Revenue from Secondary Sourcing/Upgrading: The knowledge highlights the opportunity for waste valorization and notes ANM Resolution 189/2024 supporting this. While a relatively new area, the potential to recover valuable minerals from existing liabilities is significant. Let's estimate that the potential annual revenue from selling minerals recovered from waste could represent a range of 0.5% to 2% of the total current mining sector revenue. This range reflects the emerging nature of this market and the varying economic viability of recovering different minerals from different waste streams.
Calculated potential addressable market with defined ranges:
- Addressable Market (Low Estimate) = R$ 270.8 billion * 0.5% = R$ 1.354 billion
- Addressable Market (High Estimate) = R$ 270.8 billion * 2% = R$ 5.416 billion
- Estimated Annual Addressable Market Range: R$ 1.4 billion to R$ 5.4 billion. This represents the potential annual revenue generated from secondary sourcing and upgrading of strategic minerals from mine waste.

Customized Mineral Products-as-a-Service for SMEs¶

Key assumptions and detailed rationale: The addressable market for customized mineral products-as-a-service for SMEs is based on the potential value created by providing SMEs with minerals that precisely match their required specifications, thereby reducing their operational costs and improving efficiency.
- Assumption 1: SME Demand for Customized Products. Industrial SMEs consuming minerals have specific quality and specification needs that are often unmet by standard bulk products, leading to inefficiencies and costs.
- Assumption 2: Value of Customization to SMEs. SMEs are willing to pay a premium or service fee for customized products that reduce their internal processing, waste, and yield losses. This value represents the addressable market.
- Assumption 3: Addressable Market as a Percentage of Total Sector Revenue. Due to the lack of specific data on SME mineral consumption volumes and the value they place on customization, we will estimate the addressable market as a percentage of the total mining sector revenue, specifically targeting the value associated with the SME segment that would benefit from this service.
- Formula: Addressable Market = (Total Annual Mining Sector Revenue) * (Estimated Percentage of Total Revenue Attributable to Minerals Consumed by Target SMEs) * (Estimated Percentage Value Capture from Customization Service)
- Simplified Formula (due to data limitations): Addressable Market = (Total Annual Mining Sector Revenue) * (Estimated Percentage of Total Revenue Representing Potential Annual Revenue from Customized Products-as-a-Service to SMEs)
Researched numbers with rationale and sources:
- Total Annual Mining Sector Revenue: R$ 270.8 billion in 2024.
- Estimated Percentage of Total Revenue Representing Potential Annual Revenue from Customized Products-as-a-Service to SMEs: The knowledge highlights that SMEs suffer from quality mismatch and lack bargaining power for customization. Providing tailored products can lead to significant TCO benefits for them. Let's estimate that the potential annual revenue from providing customized mineral products-as-a-service to the SME segment represents a range of 0.2% to 1% of the total current mining sector revenue. This range reflects the scale of the SME market consuming minerals and the potential value captured by providing this specialized service.
Calculated potential addressable market with defined ranges:
- Addressable Market (Low Estimate) = R$ 270.8 billion * 0.2% = R$ 541.6 million
- Addressable Market (High Estimate) = R$ 270.8 billion * 1% = R$ 2.708 billion
- Estimated Annual Addressable Market Range: R$ 542 million to R$ 2.7 billion. This represents the potential annual revenue for providers offering customized mineral products-as-a-service to industrial SMEs.

Accessible Price Risk Management Solutions for Local Minerals & SMEs¶

Key assumptions and detailed rationale: The addressable market for accessible price risk management solutions for local minerals and SMEs is based on the potential revenue generated by providing financial tools and platforms that help SMEs mitigate the risks associated with price volatility of minerals, particularly those traded domestically without established hedging mechanisms.
- Assumption 1: SME Exposure to Price Volatility. SMEs involved in the trade or consumption of local minerals face significant risks from price fluctuations, impacting their profitability and stability.
- Assumption 2: Demand for Accessible Hedging Tools. SMEs currently lack affordable and accessible options to hedge against this price risk.
- Assumption 3: Revenue Generation from Risk Management Services. Providers of these solutions would generate revenue through transaction fees, service fees, or platform usage fees based on the value of the transactions they help manage.
- Assumption 4: Addressable Market as a Percentage of Estimated Domestic Market Value. Due to the difficulty in quantifying the specific value of price-volatile local mineral transactions by SMEs, we will estimate the addressable market as a percentage of the estimated total domestic market value for minerals.
- Formula: Addressable Market = (Estimated Annual Domestic Market Value for Minerals) * (Estimated Percentage of Domestic Market Value Relevant to Target SMEs and Price Volatility) * (Estimated Percentage Value Capture from Risk Management Services)
- Simplified Formula (due to data limitations): Addressable Market = (Estimated Annual Domestic Market Value for Minerals) * (Estimated Percentage of Domestic Market Value Representing Potential Annual Revenue from Price Risk Management Services for SMEs)
Researched numbers with rationale and sources:
- Estimated Annual Domestic Market Value for Minerals: The total mining sector revenue in 2024 was R$ 270.8 billion. Assuming domestic sales constitute a portion of this, let's estimate the domestic market value to be in the range of 20% to 30% of the total revenue, which is R$ 54 billion to R$ 81 billion. (This is an estimation based on the fact that exports are significant but domestic consumption also exists).
- Estimated Percentage of Domestic Market Value Representing Potential Annual Revenue from Price Risk Management Services for SMEs: The knowledge explicitly mentions SMEs' pain with price volatility and the unmet need for affordable hedging, noting the absence of liquid forward markets for minerals like aggregates, manganese, and niobium. While the exact portion of the domestic market these minerals and SMEs represent is unknown, providing hedging services could capture a small percentage of the value of these transactions. Let's estimate that the potential annual revenue from providing accessible price risk management services represents a range of 0.1% to 0.5% of the estimated domestic market value. This range accounts for transaction volumes and potential fee structures.
Calculated potential addressable market with defined ranges:
- Using the low range of Domestic Market Value (R$ 54 billion) and low percentage (0.1%): R$ 54 billion * 0.1% = R$ 54 million
- Using the high range of Domestic Market Value (R$ 81 billion) and high percentage (0.5%): R$ 81 billion * 0.5% = R$ 405 million
- Estimated Annual Addressable Market Range: R$ 54 million to R$ 405 million. This represents the potential annual revenue for providers offering accessible price risk management solutions for local minerals and SMEs.

Integrated "Mineral-plus-Optimization" Services for Industrial SMEs¶

Key assumptions and detailed rationale: The addressable market for integrated "Mineral-plus-Optimization" services for industrial SMEs is based on the potential revenue generated by bundling technical support and process optimization expertise with mineral supply, helping SMEs improve their operational performance.
- Assumption 1: Industrial SME Need for Optimization Support. Industrial SMEs using minerals often lack the in-house expertise (e.g., metallurgical labs) to optimize their processes related to mineral inputs, leading to inefficiencies.
- Assumption 2: Value of Optimization Services. Providing technical support and optimization services alongside mineral supply creates value for SMEs by improving their yields, reducing waste, and lowering overall operational costs, for which they would be willing to pay.
- Assumption 3: Addressable Market as a Percentage of Estimated Domestic Market Value. Due to the lack of specific data on the number of target SMEs and their potential spending on such services, we will estimate the addressable market as a percentage of the estimated total domestic market value for minerals, focusing on the portion consumed by industrial SMEs who would benefit from these integrated services.
- Formula: Addressable Market = (Estimated Annual Domestic Market Value for Minerals) * (Estimated Percentage of Domestic Market Value Relevant to Target Industrial SMEs) * (Estimated Percentage Value Capture from Optimization Service)
- Simplified Formula (due to data limitations): Addressable Market = (Estimated Annual Domestic Market Value for Minerals) * (Estimated Percentage of Domestic Market Value Representing Potential Annual Revenue from Integrated "Mineral-plus-Optimization" Services for SMEs)
Researched numbers with rationale and sources:
- Estimated Annual Domestic Market Value for Minerals: As estimated for Whitespace 6, this is in the range of R$ 54 billion to R$ 81 billion annually.
- Estimated Percentage of Domestic Market Value Representing Potential Annual Revenue from Integrated "Mineral-plus-Optimization" Services for SMEs: The knowledge indicates SMEs lack in-house labs and face process inefficiencies related to mineral inputs. Providing bundled technical support can directly address this pain point and improve their ROI. Let's estimate that the potential annual revenue from providing integrated "Mineral-plus-Optimization" services to industrial SMEs represents a range of 0.2% to 0.8% of the estimated domestic market value. This range considers the potential value of process improvements for SMEs and the potential pricing models for such services.
Calculated potential addressable market with defined ranges:
- Using the low range of Domestic Market Value (R$ 54 billion) and low percentage (0.2%): R$ 54 billion * 0.2% = R$ 108 million
- Using the high range of Domestic Market Value (R$ 81 billion) and high percentage (0.8%): R$ 81 billion * 0.8% = R$ 648 million
- Estimated Annual Addressable Market Range: R$ 108 million to R$ 648 million. This represents the potential annual revenue for providers offering integrated "Mineral-plus-Optimization" services to industrial SMEs.

References¶

Agência Brasil - EBC: https://agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br/economia/noticia/2025-02/faturamento-do-setor-mineral-cresceu-91-em-2024
Agência BNDES de Notícias: https://agenciadenoticias.bndes.gov.br/detalhe/noticia/BNDES-recebe-governo-e-setor-privado-para-debater-cadeia-de-valor-de-minerais-estrategicos/
Agência de Notícias da Indústria: https://agenciaindustria.com.br/noticias/202308/mineracao-tem-desafios-para-integracao-em-cadeias-globais-de-valor/
Anglo American Brasil: https://brasil.angloamerican.com/pt-BR/noticias/2025/20-02-2025
Anglo American to sell nickel business to MMG for $500m - Mining Technology: https://www.mining-technology.com/news/anglo-american-sell-nickel/
BNamericas: https://www.bnamericas.com/pt/analise/os-fatores-que-moldarao-o-cenario-da-mineracao-na-america-do-sul-em-2025
BNamericas: https://www.bnamericas.com/pt/analise/potencial-de-minerais-criticos-impulsiona-fusões-e-aquisicoes-na-mineracao-brasileira
Brasil Mineral: https://www.brasilmineral.com.br/noticias/desempenho/mineracao-responde-por-47-do-saldo-da-balanca-comercial-investimentos-sobem-para-us-684-bilhoes
Brasil Mineral: https://www.brasilmineral.com.br/noticias/invest-mining-debate-bolsa-de-venture-capital-para-a-mineracao
Brasil Mineral: https://www.brasilmineral.com.br/noticias/pdac-2025-brasil-pode-ter-papel-relevante-na-producao-de-minerais-criticos
Brasil terá política para minerais em 2025, anuncia ministro - Poder360: https://www.poder360.com.br/energia/brasil-tera-politica-para-minerais-em-2025-anuncia-ministro/
DFC - U.S. International Development Finance Corporation: https://dfc.gov/enhanced-development-outcomes-sourcing-cobalt-and-other-critical-minerals-countering-chinas-rare
EY: https://assets.ey.com/content/dam/ey-sites/ey-com/pt_br/topics/assurance/attractiveness-brazilian-mining-sector-2024-ey-br.pdf
GOV.BR: https://www.gov.br/mme/pt-br/assuntos/noticias/mme-debate-cadeia-de-valor-de-minerais-estrategicos-para-transicao-energetica-e-descarbonizacao-durante-conferencia-internacional
IBRAM: https://ibram.org.br/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/industria-da-mineracao-cartilha-ibram.pdf
Jazida: https://jazida.com/blog/resolucao-anm-189-2024-rejeitos-estereis/
Jornal Extra de Alagoas: https://jornalextra.com.br/noticia/76581/economia/2025/05/06/faturamento-do-sector-mineral-no-1-trimestre-e-de-r-738-bi-avanco-de-86-aponta-ibram
Lingopass: https://lingopass.com.pt/blog/desafios-e-oportunidades-no-setor-de-mineracao-e-metais-em-2024/
Minera Brasil: https://minerabrasil.com/noticias/brasil-enfrenta-o-desafio-de-superar-gargalos-regulatorios-para-atrair-investidores-e-destravar-o-potencial-nuclear/
NeoFeed: https://neofeed.com.br/braskem/na-mineracao-os-esforcos-para-descarbonizar-sua-cadeia-de-valor/
Portal Gov.br - Agência Nacional de Mineração (ANM) aprova nova Agenda Regulatória para o biênio 2025/2026: https://www.gov.br/anm/pt-br/assuntos/regulacao/agendas-regulatoria/arquivos/agenda-regulatoria-2025-2026
Publications - IDB: https://publications.iadb.org/publications/portuguese/document/Inovacao-e-competitividade-nas-cadeias-de-valor-da-mineracao-o-caso-do-Brasil.pdf
Vale Launches $100M Fund to Invest in the Sustainable Startup Ecosystem: https://www.valeventures.com/news/vale-launches-100m-fund-to-invest-in-the-sustainable-startup-ecosystem