Skip to content

Customers' Unmet Needs and Pains

Oil & Gas in Brazil Current Pains Analysis

Brazilian end-users of oil-derived products—motorists, households, and a broad range of business customers—experience a recurrent set of pains that originate mainly in the mid- and downstream segments of the value-chain and are magnified by macro-economic and regulatory factors.

  1. Price Volatility and High Absolute Costs
    • 133.1 billion L of automotive fuels sold in 2024 were priced against an import-dependent and FX-sensitive benchmark.
    • LPG cylinder prices reached record highs in 2024/25, weighing heavily on low-income households.
    • B2B users (transport fleets, industry, agribusiness) face unpredictable budgeting and margin compression.

  2. Supply Security & Reliability
    • Tight diesel balance: Brazil still imports ±25 % of consumption; any logistics or geopolitical shock is rapidly felt at the pump.
    • LPG distribution—especially in the North & Northeast—suffers from periodic shortages due to limited cabotage capacity and bottlenecked terminals.
    • Independent distributors complain of restricted, costly access to Petrobras-controlled pipelines and terminals, passing the risk on to customers.

  3. Product Availability & Quality
    • Demand for specific grades (Diesel S10, aviation fuels, chemical naphtha) often outstrips local refining slate, forcing imports.
    • Fuel adulteration scandals periodically erode trust and can damage vehicle engines or industrial burners.

  4. Market Structure & Regulatory Uncertainty
    • Petrobras still owns ~80 % of refining capacity, while three distributors (Vibra, Raízen, Ipiranga) control >50 % of retail sales—limiting perceived competition.
    • Frequent changes to pricing policy (PPI vs. “alternativa ao mercado”) generate confusion and speculation along the chain.
    • Environmental licensing disputes (Equatorial Margin) trigger doubts about medium-term domestic crude supply and new investment.

  5. Infrastructure Constraints
    • Pipeline network is sparse outside the Southeast; refined products often travel long distances by road, increasing cost and carbon footprint.
    • Lack of small-scale LNG terminals delays gas penetration in Northern industrial clusters.

Across social media and traditional press, these pains dominate public discourse: “high pump prices”, “gás de cozinha caro”, and “falta de diesel” are top-ranking topics; sentiment is predominantly negative or anxious.

Unmet Needs and Pains

The synthesis of customer profiles, demand behaviour, social listening, and pain mapping reveals six high-priority unmet needs:

# Unmet Need / Pain Evidence & Magnitude Impacted Segments Root Cause(s) Opportunity Space
1 Greater Price Stability & Transparency • Pump prices lag international downsides; public questions Petrobras policy.
• Diesel & LPG price swings drive CPI spikes.		 B2C motorists & households; B2B fleets & industry Import dependence, FX pass-through, ad-hoc policy shifts Hedging solutions, indexed long-term contracts, digital price-tracking platforms, expansion of local refining / biofuel integration
2 Reliable, Diversified Supply of Diesel, LPG & Nat-Gas • Import share of diesel >20 %; LPG shortages reported in remote states.
• NG demand down 3.5 % in Q1 2024—partly supply-driven.		 Transportation, agribusiness, power plants, households Limited refining flexibility, logistics chokepoints, under-investment in midstream Modular refineries, pipeline & cabotage expansion, small-scale LNG & LPG hubs, demand-side management
3 Affordable Clean(er) Alternatives • 40 % surge in hydrated ethanol sales when price competitive.
• Corporates set decarbonisation targets; ESG pressure rising.		 Motorists, corporate fleets, industry Tax/fiscal design, limited distribution of high-blend bio-diesel/HVO, scarce EV charging Scale up ethanol & HVO, enable biogas/biomethane, roll-out EV charging & flex-fuel hybrids
4 Assurance of Fuel Quality & Authenticity • Recurring adulteration scandals trend on social media.
• Equipment failures cost B2B users millions.		 Motorists, farming & construction equipment users Weak enforcement, opaque supply chain Blockchain-based tracking, tighter testing at retail, consumer apps for real-time quality verification
5 Competitive, Inclusive Market Access • Small distributors/resellers cite high terminal fees & captive transport costs.
• Regions with single supplier show higher retail margins.		 Independent retailers, small industrial consumers, end-users in remote areas Market concentration, infrastructure ownership Open-access regulation, multi-modal logistics, regional trading marketplaces
6 Predictable Regulatory & Environmental Framework • 2024 debate on Equatorial Margin licensing created investor hesitation.
• Price-policy shifts hurt planning.		 All segments (prices, supply, investment) Policy volatility, political cycles Long-term policy signaling, independent regulator empowerment, participatory licensing processes

Qualitative Insights
• Households substitute LPG with electric or wood stoves during price spikes, signalling a pain threshold at ≈R$ 120 per 13 kg cylinder.
• Ride-hailing and delivery drivers intensify public pressure for cheaper gasoline; app-based communities amplify negative sentiment within hours of price hikes.
• Mid-sized trucking firms earmark up to 35 % of opex for fuel, and cite “access to discounted bulk diesel” as top unmet need.
• Industrial buyers of nat-gas request dual-fuel flexibility packages as insurance against supply curtailments.

Segmentation of Needs
1. Low-income Households: stability & affordability of LPG, small-package offerings, social tariff.
2. Motorists (urban): dynamic fuel choice (gasoline vs. ethanol), loyalty programs linked to transparent pricing.
3. Heavy Transport & Agro: bulk diesel price hedging, guaranteed delivery, biodiesel/HVO blends.
4. Energy-intensive Industry: long-term gas contracts, cogeneration solutions.
5. Remote Regions: micro-logistics for LPG/diesel, mini-refineries, decentralized renewable fuels.

Inter-dependencies
• Meeting need #1 (price stability) requires addressing need #6 (regulatory predictability).
• Infrastructure upgrades (need #2) unlock competition benefits (need #5) and quality control (need #4).

Key Findings

Key Finding Strategic Implication
Price volatility is the single most painful issue across all customer groups. Any player offering hedged or indexed pricing, or boosting local, less FX-exposed supply will gain rapid market share.
Dependence on imported diesel and LPG is perceived as a national vulnerability. Investment in modular refineries, HVO/bio-diesel capacity, and LPG logistics yields high socio-political goodwill.
Consumers reward cheaper, cleaner ethanol when relative pricing is favourable (+33 % volume in 2024). Fiscal or distribution innovations that keep ethanol parity below 70 % of gasoline unlock continued demand growth.
Public distrust of fuel quality remains high. Transparency technologies (blockchain, QR code auditing) can differentiate brands and reduce adulteration-related losses.
Regulatory swings create planning paralysis for both investors and consumers. Stable, clearly communicated policy frameworks will crowd-in private capital and moderate end-user prices.

References

  1. Agência Nacional do Petróleo, Gás Natural e Biocombustíveis (ANP). Anuário Estatístico 2023. https://www.gov.br/anp/pt-br/centrais-de-conteudo/publicacoes/anuario-estatistico/2023/anuario-estatistico-2023
  2. Poder360. “Investimentos em refino não rompem com a dependência de importações de derivados.” 11 Dec 2024. https://www.epbr.com.br/editorias/refino/investimentos-em-refino-nao-rompem-com-a-dependencia-de-importacoes-de-derivados/
  3. Agência Brasil. “Brasil vende mais de 133 bilhões de litros de combustíveis em 2024.” 14 Feb 2025. https://agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br/economia/noticia/2025/02/brasil-vende-mais-de-133-bilhoes-de-litros-de-combustiveis-em-2024
  4. S&P Global. “Brazil’s gasoline demand decreases, diesel rises on year in 2024: ANP.” 20 Jan 2025. https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/platts/latest-news/oil/012025-brazils-gasoline-demand-decreases-diesel-rises-on-year-in-2024-anp
  5. CEIC Data. “Brazil BR: Consumer Fuel Price: Liquefied Petroleum Gas: Average.” https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/brazil/consumer-fuel-price-liquefied-petroleum-gas--average
  6. Poder360. “Produção de gasolina e diesel da Petrobras bate recorde em 2024.” 17 Jan 2025. https://www.poder360.com.br/energia/producao-de-gasolina-e-diesel-da-petrobras-bate-recorde-em-2024/
  7. EPBR. “Estudo indica importação de derivados nos próximos dez anos.” 2024. https://www.epbr.com.br/editorias/refino/estudo-indica-importacao-de-derivados-nos-proximos-dez-anos-em-que-pese-aumento-da-posicao-do-brasil-como-exportador-de-petroleo/
  8. CNN Brasil. “Produção de petróleo do Brasil bate recorde em 2023 com 3,4 mi de barris por dia.” 2 Feb 2024. https://www.cnnbrasil.com.br/economia/producao-de-petroleo-do-brasil-bate-recorde-em-2023-com-34-mi-de-barris-por-dia/
  9. Poder360. “Vendas de gasolina, diesel e etanol cresceram em 2023, diz ANP.” 1 Feb 2024. https://www.poder360.com.br/economia/vendas-de-gasolina-diesel-e-etanol-cresceram-em-2023-diz-anp/
  10. GreenPeace Brasil. “Licenciamento na Margem Equatorial: riscos socioambientais.” https://www.greenpeace.org/brasil/