Banking in Argentina Potential Addressable Market

Addressable Market Calculation

This section quantifies the potential addressable market for each identified whitespace within the Argentine banking sector, based on the provided knowledge and derived assumptions. Market sizes are presented in terms of potential users or businesses, as precise financial volume data across all segments is highly volatile and not consistently available in the provided context. Ranges are provided to reflect the inherent uncertainty in market estimations.

1. Inflation-Adaptive Financial Products for Mass Market & SMEs

• Key Assumptions and Rationale:

  • Target Audience: The primary target audience comprises individuals and SMEs currently engaged in digital financial services who are seeking mechanisms to protect their savings and investments from high inflation. Rationale: The pain point of inflation erosion is widespread, and the "Democratization of Investing Trend" indicates a willingness to use digital platforms for wealth preservation.
  • Market Size Proxy: The number of active users of digital financial services (including banks' digital channels and fintech platforms) serves as a proxy for the addressable pool of potential users. Rationale: This segment is already digitally connected, making them accessible to new digital financial products.
  • Seeking Inflation Protection: A significant portion of this user base is actively seeking solutions for inflation protection. Rationale: Demand is described as "Overwhelming and immediate" and affecting a high percentage of deposits.
  • Adoption Rate: A percentage of those seeking solutions will adopt new, accessible inflation-adaptive products offered through digital channels. Rationale: Adoption depends on product design, accessibility, and perceived effectiveness compared to existing limited options.
  • Formula: Addressable Market (Users) = Total Estimated Unique Digital Financial Users * % Actively Seeking Inflation Protection * % Adoption Rate of New Products

• Researched Numbers and Rationale:

  • Total Estimated Unique Digital Financial Users: Based on user numbers from key digital players: Ualá (>9M users, Mar 2025) [Uala - 2025 Company Profile, Funding & Competitors - Tracxn], Naranja X (6.47M accounts, 3Q24) [Grupo Supervielle Reports 3Q24 and 9M24 Results], and market share data for state-owned bank digital wallets (Cuenta DNI 14.4%, BNA+ 12.2% share) [Presentación de PowerPoint]. These numbers represent a large and overlapping user base. A conservative estimate for unique users engaged with digital financial services is 15 million to 20 million. Rationale: Captures the scale of digital adoption across major platforms serving individuals and some SMEs.
  • % Actively Seeking Inflation Protection: The demand is described as "Overwhelming and immediate demand" and impacting "80 %+ of deposits". [Banking in Argentina: Unmet Customer Needs and Pains Report – Unmet Need #1; Ongoing Changes Signals – S7] A conservative estimate for the percentage of these digital users actively seeking inflation protection is 50% to 80%. Rationale: Reflects the high severity of the inflation pain point.
  • % Adoption Rate of New Products: Assuming accessible and user-friendly products are developed (like low-minimum CER-linked funds or simplified digital investment access), a portion of those seeking solutions will adopt. An estimated adoption rate is 20% to 40%. Rationale: Accounts for potential hesitation, competition from informal channels, and the novelty of some product types.

• Calculated Potential Addressable Market:

  • Lower Bound: 15 million users * 50% seeking * 20% adoption = 1.5 million users
  • Upper Bound: 20 million users * 80% seeking * 40% adoption = 6.4 million users
  • Potential Addressable Market (Users): A range of 1.5 million to 6.4 million users actively using new inflation-adaptive financial products.

2. AI-Powered Inclusive Credit for Underserved Segments

• Key Assumptions and Rationale:

  • Target Audience: This includes the unbanked and underbanked adult population, as well as SMEs and micro-businesses that face significant barriers to accessing credit through traditional channels. Rationale: Directly addresses the "Limited Access to Affordable Credit" and "Continued Exclusion" pains, leveraging AI for alternative credit scoring.
  • Market Size Proxy: The estimated number of unbanked/underbanked adults and the estimated number of SMEs (especially micro and small) serve as the basis for the addressable market. Rationale: These are the segments explicitly identified as underserved in lending.
  • Seeking Credit: A percentage of individuals and SMEs in these segments are in need of and actively seeking credit. Rationale: High rejection rates for SMEs and the general lack of access for the unbanked population indicate significant latent demand.
  • Adoption Rate: A percentage of those seeking credit will be eligible for and adopt AI-powered credit solutions if they provide access where traditional channels do not. Rationale: Adoption hinges on the effectiveness of AI models, willingness to share alternative data, and the perceived fairness and transparency of the process.
  • Formula: Addressable Market (Users/Businesses) = (Number of Unbanked/Underbanked Adults * % Seeking Credit) + (Number of Target SMEs * % Seeking Credit) * % Eligibility & Adoption Rate via AI/Alternative Data

• Researched Numbers and Rationale:

  • Number of Unbanked/Underbanked Adults: Approximately 35% of the adult population. [Banking in Argentina: Unmet Customer Needs and Pains Report – Pain #3] Assuming an adult population of 30-35 million, this segment is approximately 10.5 million to 12.25 million adults. Rationale: Based on direct reporting of the unbanked/underbanked proportion.
  • Number of Target SMEs: The context mentions 1.2 million micro-merchants as a key segment for merchant acquiring solutions. [Banking in Argentina: Unmet Customer Needs and Pains Report – Unmet Need #5] This serves as a base for the micro-SME segment. Including slightly larger SMEs needing credit, a reasonable range for target SMEs is 1.5 million to 2.5 million businesses. Rationale: Focuses on the segment most affected by credit access issues.
  • % Seeking Credit (Individuals): While not explicitly stated, lack of formal credit access implies a need for it. Estimate 30% to 60% of un/underbanked individuals seek credit for various needs (emergencies, consumption). Rationale: General assumption based on financial needs in lower-income segments.
  • % Seeking Credit (SMEs): SME rejection rates are >60% [Banking in Argentina: Unmet Customer Needs and Pains Report – Unmet Need #2], indicating high demand. Estimate 50% to 80% of target SMEs are seeking credit. Rationale: Directly supported by reported rejection rates.
  • % Eligibility & Adoption Rate via AI/Alternative Data: Success depends on the AI model's ability to identify creditworthy individuals/SMEs using alternative data and their willingness to adopt. Estimate 40% to 70% of those seeking credit could be successfully served and adopt these solutions. Rationale: Accounts for the potential of AI and alternative data, balanced by potential data privacy concerns and trust barriers.

• Calculated Potential Addressable Market:

  • Individuals Seeking Credit: (10.5M * 0.3) to (12.25M * 0.6) = 3.15 million to 7.35 million users.
  • SMEs Seeking Credit: (1.5M * 0.5) to (2.5M * 0.8) = 0.75 million to 2 million businesses.
  • Potential Individual Adopters: (3.15M * 0.4) to (7.35M * 0.7) = 1.26 million to 5.15 million users.
  • Potential SME Adopters: (0.75M * 0.4) to (2M * 0.7) = 0.3 million to 1.4 million businesses.
  • Potential Addressable Market (Users & Businesses): A range of 1.26 million to 5.15 million individuals AND 0.3 million to 1.4 million SMEs/micro-businesses accessing credit through AI-powered inclusive solutions.

3. Holistic Financial Onboarding & Empowerment for the Un/Underbanked

• Key Assumptions and Rationale:

  • Target Audience: The entire unbanked and underbanked adult population. Rationale: This whitespace directly aims to bring this segment into the formal financial system with a comprehensive offering.
  • Market Size: The estimated number of unbanked/underbanked adults. Rationale: This defines the total pool of potential users for this solution.
  • Willingness to Adopt: A percentage of this population is willing to adopt a digital financial account if it offers a holistic set of services (beyond just transactions or benefit collection) and is easy to access. Rationale: High digital wallet adoption shows openness to digital finance, but the need for "More Than Basic Wallets" indicates demand for more comprehensive solutions.
  • Active Usage: A percentage of those willing to adopt will successfully onboard and become active users of the holistic account and its bundled services. Rationale: Success depends on the user-friendliness, integrated financial literacy, and perceived value of the offering.
  • Formula: Addressable Market (Users) = Number of Unbanked/Underbanked Adults * % Willingness to Adopt Holistic Digital Account * % Successful Onboarding & Active Usage

• Researched Numbers and Rationale:

  • Number of Unbanked/Underbanked Adults: Approximately 35% of the adult population, estimated at 10.5 million to 12.25 million adults. [Banking in Argentina: Unmet Customer Needs and Pains Report – Pain #3] Rationale: Direct segment size from report.
  • % Willingness to Adopt Holistic Digital Account: High adoption of basic digital wallets (Cuenta DNI 14.4%, BNA+ 12.2% share) [Presentación de PowerPoint] suggests significant openness to digital finance. The pain point of needing more than benefit collection indicates demand for a holistic solution. Estimate 40% to 70% are willing to try a comprehensive digital offering. Rationale: Balances existing digital adoption with the need for a better value proposition to ensure sustained use.
  • % Successful Onboarding & Active Usage: Assuming the platform is designed with user-friendliness and embedded support (literacy tools, simple KYC), a high percentage of those willing are likely to become active users. Estimate 50% to 80%. Rationale: Reflects the potential of well-designed digital-first solutions to reach and engage this segment.

• Calculated Potential Addressable Market:

  • Lower Bound: 10.5 million users * 40% willing * 50% active = 2.1 million users
  • Upper Bound: 12.25 million users * 70% willing * 80% active = 6.86 million users
  • Potential Addressable Market (Users): A range of 2.1 million to 6.86 million unbanked/underbanked adults becoming active users of holistic digital financial accounts.

4. Integrated Financial Operations Platforms for SMEs

• Key Assumptions and Rationale:

  • Target Audience: Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs), particularly micro and small businesses, who struggle with fragmented financial tools, high payment acceptance costs, and lack of access to integrated services like FX management. Rationale: Addresses multiple pain points identified specifically for SMEs.
  • Market Size Proxy: The estimated number of SMEs and micro-businesses is the basis for the addressable market. Rationale: This segment is explicitly defined by its business structure and needs.
  • Willingness to Adopt: A percentage of target SMEs are willing to adopt a single, integrated digital platform for their financial operations if it offers clear cost savings, efficiency gains, and convenience. Rationale: Frustration with fragmentation and demand for better payment/FX tools indicate readiness for a consolidated solution.
  • Active Usage: A percentage of those willing to adopt will successfully onboard and actively use the integrated platform for core financial tasks. Rationale: Depends on platform quality, ease of integration with existing business tools, and perceived value.
  • Formula: Addressable Market (Businesses) = Total Estimated Number of Target SMEs * % Willingness to Adopt Integrated Platform * % Successful Onboarding & Active Usage

• Researched Numbers and Rationale:

  • Total Estimated Number of Target SMEs: The context highlights 1.2 million micro-merchants [Banking in Argentina: Unmet Customer Needs and Pains Report – Unmet Need #5]. This is a large part of the target. Including other small businesses facing similar pains, an estimated range for target SMEs is 1.5 million to 2.5 million businesses. Rationale: Uses the cited micro-merchant number as a strong indicator of the segment size and adds a reasonable buffer.
  • % Willingness to Adopt Integrated Platform: Highlighting frustration with fragmentation and strong growth in digital merchant acquiring demand [Banking in Argentina Niche and Emerging Markets Analysis – Whitespace #4; Banking in Argentina: Unmet Customer Needs and Pains Report – Unmet Need #5], suggests significant openness if a good solution exists. Estimate 30% to 60%. Rationale: Accounts for potential inertia and the challenge of migrating core business processes.
  • % Successful Onboarding & Active Usage: Assuming the platform offers robust integrations (APIs), a user-friendly interface, and reliable performance, a high percentage of those willing are likely to become active users. Estimate 50% to 80%. Rationale: Reflects the potential value proposition for SMEs if the platform genuinely simplifies their operations.

• Calculated Potential Addressable Market:

  • Lower Bound: 1.5 million businesses * 30% willing * 50% active = 0.225 million businesses
  • Upper Bound: 2.5 million businesses * 60% willing * 80% active = 1.2 million businesses
  • Potential Addressable Market (Businesses): A range of 0.225 million to 1.2 million SMEs/micro-businesses actively using an integrated financial operations platform.

5. AI-Driven Personalized Financial Literacy and Guidance at Scale

• Key Assumptions and Rationale:

  • Target Audience: Adult digital banking users across various segments (including those new to digital, younger generations, seniors) who can benefit from improved financial understanding and guidance. Rationale: Addresses the "Digital Divide & Financial Literacy Gaps" pain and the "Heightened Demand for Digital Security & Financial Literacy" trend.
  • Market Size Proxy: The estimated number of active digital financial users serves as the basis for the addressable market, as literacy tools would likely be delivered through these channels. Rationale: Focuses on the population already accessible via digital platforms.
  • Willingness to Engage: A percentage of digital users are willing to engage with AI-driven, personalized financial literacy tools, especially given the demand for modern learning formats and the need for guidance in a volatile economy. Rationale: Supported by engagement with "finfluencers" and the general need for clarity in complex financial conditions.
  • Active Engagement: A percentage of those willing will actively use and benefit from the literacy and guidance features. Rationale: Depends on the quality, relevance, personalization, and ease of integration of the tools within existing financial apps.
  • Formula: Addressable Market (Users) = Total Estimated Unique Digital Financial Users * % Willingness to Engage with AI Literacy Tools * % Active Engagement

• Researched Numbers and Rationale:

  • Total Estimated Unique Digital Financial Users: Based on the same estimate as in Whitespace 1, 15 million to 20 million unique digital financial users. Rationale: This is the base population that would potentially access these tools.
  • % Willingness to Engage with AI Literacy Tools: Demand exists for engaging, easy-to-understand content. [Banking in Argentina: Unmet Customer Needs and Pains Report – Unmet Need #4] Estimate 30% to 60% of digital users would be willing to engage with personalized, AI-driven literacy tools if they are well-designed and accessible within their banking apps. Rationale: Accounts for varying interest levels in financial education, balanced by the potential appeal of personalized, modern formats.
  • % Active Engagement: Assuming the tools are truly personalized, engaging (gamified, interactive), and seamlessly integrated, a percentage of those willing will actively use them. Estimate 40% to 70%. Rationale: Reflects the potential effectiveness of AI and modern delivery methods in driving engagement compared to traditional methods.

• Calculated Potential Addressable Market:

  • Lower Bound: 15 million users * 30% willing * 40% active = 1.8 million users
  • Upper Bound: 20 million users * 60% willing * 70% active = 8.4 million users
  • Potential Addressable Market (Users): A range of 1.8 million to 8.4 million digital banking users actively engaging with AI-driven personalized financial literacy and guidance.

6. Open Banking-Enabled Unified Financial Experiences & Marketplaces

• Key Assumptions and Rationale:

  • Target Audience: Digitally savvy individuals and multi-banked SMEs who value convenience, a holistic view of their finances across providers, and access to a broader marketplace of financial services. Rationale: Addresses the "Unified, Interoperable Financial Ecosystem" need and leverages the existing "Digital-First Banking" trend.
  • Market Size Proxy: A portion of the estimated unique digital financial users (representing digitally savvy individuals) and a portion of target SMEs (representing multi-banked businesses) form the basis. Rationale: Focuses on segments most likely to adopt solutions built on Open Banking.
  • Regulatory Implementation: The full realization of this market is contingent on the establishment of a clear and supportive Open Banking regulatory framework in Argentina. Rationale: Open Banking fundamentally relies on regulatory mandates or strong industry standards for data sharing via APIs.
  • Willingness to Use: A percentage of the target audience is willing to use platforms that leverage Open Banking to provide a unified view and marketplace access, provided security and trust are assured. Rationale: Demand for aggregated views is present, but trust in sharing data across providers is critical.
  • Active Usage: A percentage of those willing will successfully adopt and actively use Open Banking-enabled platforms. Rationale: Depends on the quality of the integrated services, the value proposition of the marketplace, and the ease of use.
  • Formula (Contingent on Regulation): Addressable Market (Users/Businesses) = (Estimated Number of Digitally Savvy Adults * % Willingness to Use) + (Estimated Number of Multi-banked SMEs * % Willingness to Use) * % Successful Onboarding & Active Usage

• Researched Numbers and Rationale:

  • Estimated Number of Digitally Savvy Adults: A significant portion of the 15-20 million unique digital financial users are likely digitally savvy or would appreciate a unified experience. Estimate 6 million to 12 million users in this category. Rationale: Reflects the growing sophistication of digital users and demand evidenced in focus groups.
  • Estimated Number of Multi-banked SMEs: SMEs often use multiple banks or financial service providers. Assume a large portion of the 1.5-2.5 million target SMEs are multi-banked or would benefit from a unified view. Estimate 0.75 million to 2 million businesses. Rationale: Common practice for businesses to diversify banking relationships.
  • % Willingness to Use Open Banking Platforms: Demand for aggregation exists ("like Mercado Libre for my whole financial life"). [Banking in Argentina: Unmet Customer Needs and Pains Report – Unmet Need #8] Trust in the platform and the security of data sharing is paramount. Estimate 50% to 80% willingness among the target segments if regulation is clear and security is robust. Rationale: Balances stated demand with potential trust barriers and regulatory dependence.
  • % Successful Onboarding & Active Usage: Assuming well-designed platforms and seamless integrations are built on the Open Banking infrastructure, a high percentage of those willing are likely to become active users. Estimate 60% to 90%. Rationale: Reflects the potential for a strong value proposition if the ecosystem develops effectively.

• Calculated Potential Addressable Market (Contingent on Regulation):

  • Individuals Willing & Actively Using: (6M * 0.5 * 0.6) to (12M * 0.8 * 0.9) = 1.8 million to 8.64 million users.
  • SMEs Willing & Actively Using: (0.75M * 0.5 * 0.6) to (2M * 0.8 * 0.9) = 0.225 million to 1.44 million businesses.
  • Potential Addressable Market (Users & Businesses): A range of 1.8 million to 8.64 million individuals AND 0.225 million to 1.44 million SMEs/micro-businesses utilizing Open Banking-enabled unified financial experiences and marketplaces, contingent on the development and implementation of a supportive regulatory framework and technical infrastructure.

References

• Argentine Banking Sector: A comprehensive financial overview - Ranking - rankingslatam. https://rankingslatam.com/ranking-financiero-argentina/
• Banco BBVA Argentina S.A. Announces Fourth Quarter & Fiscal Year 2024 Results. https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250305460260/en/Banco-BBVA-Argentina-S.A.-Announces-Fourth-Quarter-Fiscal-Year-2024-Results
• Grupo Supervielle Reports 3Q24 and 9M24 Results - Business Wire. https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20241125436385/en/Grupo-Supervielle-Reports-3Q24-and-9M24-Results
• Presentación de PowerPoint - Bancos y Tarjetas (11-12-24). https://www.ernestotitulacion.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/Bancos-y-Tarjetas-11-12-24.pdf
• Uala - 2025 Company Profile, Funding & Competitors - Tracxn. https://tracxn.com/d/companies/uala/__i1_S37v2eP0v8y200G82X6r7w