E-commerce in Argentina Potential Addressable Market

Addressable Market Calculation

Below is the quantification of the potential addressable market for each identified whitespace in the Argentinian e-commerce sector, based on analysis of the provided knowledge documents (Value Chain Report, Current and Future Opportunities Analysis, Ongoing Changes Signals Analysis, Current Pains Analysis, and Consumption Trends Analysis). All market size calculations are based on the reported total e-commerce billing for 2024 and presented with estimated ranges, acknowledging the dynamic economic environment and inherent variability in these estimations.

WS1: Optimized Regional Fulfillment & Last-Mile Networks

• Key assumptions and detailed rationale The addressable market for optimized regional fulfillment and last-mile networks is estimated as the potential total value of logistics services related to these specific areas within the overall e-commerce market. This addresses the significant pain points of high shipping costs outside AMBA, delivery delays, and inefficient returns. A key assumption is that a substantial portion of total logistics spend is concentrated in the "last mile," regional transportation, and reverse logistics, and that solutions improving these areas can capture value within this spend. The potential market size is derived by taking the total e-commerce GMV, estimating the percentage typically spent on logistics, and then estimating the portion of that logistics spend that is specifically addressable by improvements in regional fulfillment, last-mile delivery, and returns handling.
• Researched numbers with rationale and sources
  • Total E-commerce GMV (2024): ARS $22.025.462 million pesos. [Value Chain Report - Introduction]. This represents the total value of goods and services transacted, forming the base for estimating associated logistics costs.
  • Estimated percentage of GMV spent on Logistics: The reports highlight high logistics costs, stating they represent 18-25% of basket value outside AMBA. [Current Pains - Pain 1]. While a nationwide average percentage of total GMV for logistics costs isn't provided, it is a significant component. We estimate this national average to be in the range of 15% to 20% of total GMV, reflecting the substantial operational expense of moving goods across the country.
  • Estimated percentage of Logistics Spend addressable by Whitespace solutions (Regional Fulfillment, Last-Mile, Returns): The whitespace specifically targets pain points in last-mile delivery, regional reach, and reverse logistics. These are often the most complex and costly parts of the logistics chain. We estimate that 60% to 80% of the total e-commerce logistics spend is attributable to or heavily influenced by these aspects and thus addressable by solutions in this whitespace.
• Calculated potential addressable market with defined ranges Formula: Total E-commerce GMV * (% of GMV spent on Logistics) * (% of Logistics Spend addressable) Calculation: Lower end: ARS $22.025.462 million * 0.15 * 0.60 ≈ ARS 1,982 billion pesos Upper end: ARS $22.025.462 million * 0.20 * 0.80 ≈ ARS 3,524 billion pesos Potential Addressable Market for WS1: ARS 1.98 trillion to ARS 3.52 trillion (based on 2024 GMV). This represents the estimated annual market size for logistics services focused on optimizing regional fulfillment, last-mile delivery, and returns in Argentinian e-commerce.

WS2: Inflation-Resilient Financial Products for E-commerce

• Key assumptions and detailed rationale The addressable market for inflation-resilient financial products is estimated based on the potential increase in e-commerce GMV that could be unlocked by mitigating the negative impact of inflation on pricing and purchasing power. This includes recovering sales lost due to price volatility at checkout and enabling new purchases through inflation-adapted financing options like BNPL. The market size is quantified as the potential additional GMV generated by addressing these specific inflation-related pain points for consumers.
• Researched numbers with rationale and sources
  • Total E-commerce GMV (2024): ARS $22.025.462 million pesos. [Value Chain Report - Introduction]. This is the total market size within which inflation creates friction and opportunity.
  • Percentage of abandoned orders due to price changes: 21%. [Current Pains - Pain 2]. This indicates a direct loss of potential GMV due to price volatility during the purchase process.
  • Estimated percentage of abandoned carts addressed: We assume that effective inflation-resilient solutions can recover a significant portion of the 21% of abandoned carts attributed to price changes, estimated between 50% to 70%.
  • Estimated percentage of GMV where inflation-adapted BNPL is relevant: The reliance on "cuotas" (installments) is highlighted, especially for high ASP categories. [Current Pains - Pain 3]. We estimate that inflation-adapted BNPL solutions are relevant for 30% to 50% of the total e-commerce GMV.
  • Estimated BNPL uplift percentage: We estimate that effective inflation-adapted BNPL solutions could lead to a 5% to 10% increase in GMV within the segment where BNPL is relevant, by enabling purchases that might not otherwise occur or increasing average ticket values.
• Calculated potential addressable market with defined ranges Formula: (Total E-commerce GMV * % abandoned carts due to price changes * % recovered from abandoned carts) + (Total E-commerce GMV * % BNPL relevant GMV * % BNPL uplift) Calculation: Abandoned Cart Recovery: ARS $22.025.462 million * 0.21 * (0.50 to 0.70) ≈ ARS 2,313 billion to ARS 3,238 billion pesos BNPL Uplift: ARS $22.025.462 million * (0.30 to 0.50) * (0.05 to 0.10) ≈ ARS 330 billion to ARS 1,101 billion pesos Potential Addressable Market for WS2 (GMV Uplift): (ARS 2,313 + ARS 330) billion to (ARS 3,238 + ARS 1,101) billion pesos ≈ ARS 2.64 trillion to ARS 4.34 trillion (based on 2024 GMV). This represents the estimated potential annual increase in e-commerce GMV achievable by effectively addressing inflation-related pain points through financial products.

WS3: Unified & Accessible Payment Solutions for All Segments

• Key assumptions and detailed rationale The addressable market for unified and accessible payment solutions is estimated based on the potential increase in e-commerce GMV achievable by reducing payment friction and increasing financial inclusion. This includes recovering sales lost due to false declines or lack of preferred payment methods and enabling new sales from the unbanked/underbanked population. The market size is quantified as the potential additional GMV generated by making payment processes more seamless, secure, and inclusive.
• Researched numbers with rationale and sources
  • Total E-commerce GMV (2024): ARS $22.025.462 million pesos. [Value Chain Report - Introduction]. This is the base market size where payment friction exists and inclusion is an opportunity.
  • Estimated percentage of GMV lost due to payment friction: The false-decline rate for card-not-present transactions is 6-8%. [Current Pains - Pain 3]. While not representing all payment types, this signals significant friction. We estimate that a total of 7% to 11% of overall e-commerce GMV is lost due to various payment frictions, including false declines, lack of preferred methods, and complex checkout processes.
  • Estimated potential percentage increase in overall GMV from inclusion: A significant portion of the population is unbanked or underbanked for online transactions (e.g., 31% of rural consumers lack a credit card). [Current Pains - Pain 3]. We estimate that effectively including more of this population and improving accessibility can lead to a 5% to 10% increase in the total e-commerce GMV by bringing new buyers online and increasing purchase frequency.
• Calculated potential addressable market with defined ranges Formula: (Total E-commerce GMV * % GMV lost due to payment friction) + (Total E-commerce GMV * % potential increase from inclusion) Calculation: Friction Reduction GMV: ARS $22.025.462 million * (0.07 to 0.11) ≈ ARS 1,542 billion to ARS 2,423 billion pesos Inclusion GMV: ARS $22.025.462 million * (0.05 to 0.10) ≈ ARS 1,101 billion to ARS 2,203 billion pesos Potential Addressable Market for WS3 (GMV Uplift): (ARS 1,542 + ARS 1,101) billion to (ARS 2,423 + ARS 2,203) billion pesos ≈ ARS 2.64 trillion to ARS 4.63 trillion (based on 2024 GMV). This represents the estimated potential annual increase in e-commerce GMV achievable by implementing more unified, accessible, and frictionless payment solutions.

WS4: Curated Marketplaces & D2C Enablers for Emerging Niches

• Key assumptions and detailed rationale The addressable market for curated marketplaces and D2C enablers for emerging niches is estimated as the potential GMV within specific product categories that could be captured by or facilitated through specialized platforms and tools, rather than solely flowing through generalist marketplaces or less sophisticated online channels. This is driven by the diversification of online purchases and the desire for tailored experiences. The market size is estimated by identifying key emerging or underserved niches and quantifying the portion of overall e-commerce GMV within these niches that could realistically shift to or be enabled by dedicated solutions.
• Researched numbers with rationale and sources
  • Total E-commerce GMV (2024): ARS $22.025.462 million pesos. [Value Chain Report - Introduction]. This is the total market size containing the potential for niche specialization.
  • Estimated percentage of total GMV in relevant niches: High-growth categories mentioned include Apparel, Health & Beauty, and Home & Deco, alongside significant categories like Groceries/Food and Home Goods. [Consumption Trends - Signal 4], [Industry Research - Volumes and Sizes]. We estimate that these and other potential niche categories collectively represent 20% to 40% of the total e-commerce GMV.
  • Estimated percentage of niche GMV addressable by solutions: While general marketplaces will retain a large share, curated platforms and specialized D2C enablers can attract buyers and sellers seeking a more tailored experience, specific features, or direct brand relationships. We estimate that 20% to 40% of the GMV within these relevant niches is addressable by specialized marketplaces or D2C enabling solutions.
• Calculated potential addressable market with defined ranges Formula: Total E-commerce GMV * (% of GMV in relevant niches) * (% of niche GMV addressable) Calculation: Lower end: ARS $22.025.462 million * 0.20 * 0.20 ≈ ARS 881 billion pesos Upper end: ARS $22.025.462 million * 0.40 * 0.40 ≈ ARS 3,524 billion pesos Potential Addressable Market for WS4: ARS 0.88 trillion to ARS 3.52 trillion (based on 2024 GMV). This represents the estimated potential annual GMV that could flow through curated marketplaces and D2C platforms specifically serving emerging or underserved niches.

WS5: Streamlined Cross-Border E-commerce Gateways

• Key assumptions and detailed rationale The addressable market for streamlined cross-border e-commerce gateways is estimated based on the potential increase in GMV from international purchases if the process is simplified, costs are reduced, and access is improved. This includes the current cross-border market size and the potential growth achievable by addressing pain points like complex customs, high shipping costs, and payment complexities. The market size is quantified as the potential total GMV of cross-border transactions facilitated by these improved gateways.
• Researched numbers with rationale and sources
  • Total E-commerce GMV (2024): ARS $22.025.462 million pesos. [Value Chain Report - Introduction]. This provides context for the overall digital spending capacity.
  • Estimated current percentage of total E-commerce GMV that is cross-border: The reports mention rising interest and existing players like Tienda Mia. [Consumption Trends - Signal 10], [Value Chain Report - Key Players: Tienda Mia]. While a specific percentage is not given, cross-border is an established, albeit likely smaller, segment of the total market compared to domestic e-commerce. We estimate the current cross-border GMV to be between 5% to 10% of the total Argentinian e-commerce GMV.
  • Estimated potential percentage increase in cross-border GMV: Streamlined gateways addressing customs, logistics, and payment hurdles can significantly boost cross-border activity. We estimate that such improvements could lead to a 50% to 100% increase in the current cross-border GMV over the medium term.
• Calculated potential addressable market with defined ranges Formula: Current Cross-Border GMV + Potential New Cross-Border GMV = (Total E-commerce GMV * % current Cross-Border) + (Total E-commerce GMV * % current Cross-Border * % potential increase) Calculation: Current Cross-Border GMV: ARS $22.025.462 million * (0.05 to 0.10) ≈ ARS 1,101 billion to ARS 2,203 billion pesos Potential New Cross-Border GMV: (ARS 1,101 billion to ARS 2,203 billion pesos) * (0.50 to 1.00) ≈ ARS 551 billion to ARS 2,203 billion pesos Potential Addressable Market for WS5 (Total Cross-Border GMV): (ARS 1,101 + ARS 551) billion to (ARS 2,203 + ARS 2,203) billion pesos ≈ ARS 1.65 trillion to ARS 4.41 trillion (based on 2024 GMV and estimates). This represents the estimated potential total annual GMV flowing through streamlined cross-border e-commerce channels.

WS6: Green E-commerce Ecosystem

• Key assumptions and detailed rationale The addressable market for a green e-commerce ecosystem is estimated based on the potential GMV related to environmentally conscious products and services within the e-commerce sector, driven by emerging consumer demand and increasing global focus on sustainability. This market is quantified by estimating the portion of total e-commerce GMV where sustainability is a relevant factor and the percentage of consumers potentially willing to prioritize or pay a premium for green options.
• Researched numbers with rationale and sources
  • Total E-commerce GMV (2024): ARS $22.025.462 million pesos. [Value Chain Report - Introduction]. This is the overall market where green alternatives can be offered.
  • Estimated percentage of GMV potentially related to 'green' categories/options: Many product categories can have a sustainable dimension (e.g., eco-friendly fashion, organic food, energy-efficient electronics, sustainable packaging). We estimate that between 10% to 30% of the total e-commerce GMV could potentially involve products or services with a 'green' aspect.
  • Estimated percentage of consumers willing to prioritize/pay for green options: Signals for strong consumer demand are still emergent, and price sensitivity is high in the current economic climate. [Current Pains - Pain 2], [Consumption Trends - Signal 9]. However, a segment of consumers is increasingly aware. We estimate that 5% to 15% of consumers might be willing to prioritize a green option or pay a small premium (assuming price and convenience are otherwise comparable).
• Calculated potential addressable market with defined ranges Formula: Total E-commerce GMV * (% of GMV potentially related to 'green' categories) * (% of consumers willing to prioritize/pay for green) Calculation: Lower end: ARS $22.025.462 million * 0.10 * 0.05 ≈ ARS 110 billion pesos Upper end: ARS $22.025.462 million * 0.30 * 0.15 ≈ ARS 991 billion pesos Potential Addressable Market for WS6: ARS 0.11 trillion to ARS 0.99 trillion (based on 2024 GMV and estimates). This represents the estimated potential annual GMV flowing through or influenced by green e-commerce products and services. This is currently estimated as a smaller market opportunity compared to others, reflecting the emergent nature of this whitespace in the Argentinian context.

WS7: Modernized B2B Digital Commerce Platforms

• Key assumptions and detailed rationale The addressable market for modernized B2B digital commerce platforms is estimated based on the significant potential for B2B transactions in Argentina to shift to or be improved by digital platforms offering B2C-like user experiences and specialized B2B functionalities. This addresses the demand from business buyers for more intuitive online procurement. The market size is quantified as the estimated total value of B2B transactions that could potentially flow through or be facilitated by advanced digital platforms. As specific B2B e-commerce GMV data for Argentina is not provided, this estimation is based on the relative size of the B2B market compared to the B2C market observed in other economies and the strong signal of demand for digitization.
• Researched numbers with rationale and sources
  • Current B2C E-commerce GMV (2024): ARS $22.025.462 million pesos. [Value Chain Report - Introduction]. Used as a benchmark for the scale of digital commerce in Argentina.
  • Estimated potential B2B digital market size relative to B2C: The demand signal for B2C-like experiences in B2B suggests significant untapped potential for digitization. [Consumption Trends - Signal 8]. Globally, the B2B e-commerce market is often several times larger than the B2C market. Given the relatively earlier stage of B2B digital adoption implied by the signal being a whitespace, we estimate the potential digital B2B market size in Argentina to be significantly larger than the current B2C market, ranging from 0.8 times to 1.5 times the current B2C GMV, representing the value that could migrate to or be enabled by modern platforms.
• Calculated potential addressable market with defined ranges Formula: Current B2C E-commerce GMV * (Estimated potential B2B digital market size multiple of B2C) Calculation: Lower end: ARS $22.025.462 million * 0.8 ≈ ARS 17,620 billion pesos Upper end: ARS $22.025.462 million * 1.5 ≈ ARS 33,038 billion pesos Potential Addressable Market for WS7: ARS 17.62 trillion to ARS 33.04 trillion (estimated based on 2024 B2C GMV and market potential). This represents the estimated potential annual GMV that could flow through modernized B2B digital commerce platforms, highlighting a potentially massive opportunity as businesses digitize their procurement and sales processes.

References

• Bloomberg Línea – “Crece el eCommerce en Argentina: qué rubros lo impulsan y cuáles son los principales desafíos” (29 Aug 2024). https://www.bloomberglinea.com/2024/08/29/crece-el-ecommerce-en-argentina-que-rubros-lo-impulsan-y-cuales-son-los-principales-desafios/
• Cámara Argentina de Comercio Electrónico (CACE) – Estadísticas 2024. https://www.cace.org.ar/estadisticas
• ClearSale – “Country Profile: The Guide to Ecommerce in Argentina”. https://www.clear.sale/blog/guide-to-ecommerce-in-argentina
• Value Chain Report on the E-commerce Industry in Argentina. (Source: Provided Knowledge)
• Current and Future Opportunities Analysis. (Source: Provided Knowledge)
• Ongoing Changes Signals Analysis. (Source: Provided Knowledge)
• Current Pains Analysis. (Source: Provided Knowledge)
• Consumption Trends Analysis. (Source: Provided Knowledge)
• Industry Research Report on the E-commerce in Argentina. (Source: Provided Knowledge)
• OPI Santa Cruz – “Récord del e-commerce: creció 181 % en 2024 y superó la inflación” (11 Feb 2025). https://www.opisantacruz.com.ar/2025/02/11/record-del-e-commerce-crecio-181-en-2024-y-superó-la-inflación/
• Tienda Mia Argentina. https://tiendamia.com/ar
• Tienda Nube – “Todo sobre el e-commerce en Argentina y su potencial de crecimiento”. https://www.tiendanube.com/blog/ecommerce-argentina/