Oil & Gas in Argentina Potential Addressable Market¶
Addressable Market Calculation¶
Here we quantify the potential addressable market for each identified whitespace within the Argentine Oil & Gas sector, based on the provided information from 2024 and early 2025. The calculations are based on key assumptions and available data, presented with estimated ranges where precise numbers are not available.
WS1: Integrated Midstream Solutions for Independent & Emerging Vaca Muerta Producers¶
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Key assumptions and detailed rationale:
- The addressable market for integrated midstream solutions (gathering, processing, transportation, storage) for independent and emerging producers in Vaca Muerta is primarily driven by the volume of hydrocarbons they produce that needs to be moved and processed using third-party infrastructure.
- We assume that major integrated players like YPF and PAE largely meet their midstream needs internally, while independent producers (Vista, Pluspetrol, Tecpetrol for certain volumes, CGC if they enter Vaca Muerta, and other smaller players) rely more heavily on external midstream solutions, particularly given the reported bottlenecks.
- The total market size can be estimated by multiplying the expected production volume from these independent players requiring external midstream services by an estimated average tariff or cost per unit of hydrocarbon transported and processed.
- Given the lack of specific tariff data, we use a range for the estimated average midstream cost per barrel of oil equivalent (boe) based on general industry understanding of gathering, processing, and pipeline transportation fees, adjusted for the specific context of Vaca Muerta.
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Researched numbers with rationale and sources:
- Key Independent/Emerging Producers with significant Vaca Muerta activity mentioned: Vista Oil & Gas, Pluspetrol S.A., Tecpetrol. CGC is evaluating entry.
- Vista's Q4 2024 production: 85.276 boe/d.
- Pluspetrol's production in Argentina (primarily Vaca Muerta): 47.9 Mboe/d in 2024.
- Tecpetrol's total production (H1 2024, largely Vaca Muerta gas): 127.3 Mboe/d.
- Existence of other "rapidly growing independents" and a "widening base of operators" in Vaca Muerta.
- Midstream capacity is a critical bottleneck for producers. [Provided Knowledge: Current Pains Analysis, Unmet Need 1]
- Estimated combined production from known key independents (late 2024/early 2025): Approximately 85 + 48 + 127 = 260 Mboe/d. Assuming other independents contribute an additional volume range: 50-100 Mboe/d. Total estimated independent/emerging production: 310 - 360 Mboe/d.
- Rationale for volume needing external midstream: Due to bottlenecks, a significant portion of this volume (estimated 70-90%) will require third-party services.
- Estimated Average Midstream Tariff/Cost per boe: Based on industry context, a range of $4 to $8 per boe is estimated for gathering, processing, and transport from Vaca Muerta to market or export points.
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Calculated potential addressable market with defined ranges:
- Estimated Annual Production needing external midstream: (310,000 to 360,000 boe/d) * (0.70 to 0.90) * 365 days/year = 79.1 to 118.3 MM boe/year.
- Potential Addressable Market = Annual Volume * Estimated Midstream Cost/Boe
- Potential Addressable Market = (79.1 MM to 118.3 MM boe/year) * ($4 to $8 / boe)
- Potential Addressable Market Range: $316 million to $946 million per year.
- This range represents the potential annual revenue opportunity for third-party midstream service providers specifically targeting independent and emerging producers in Vaca Muerta.
WS2: Advanced Digital & AI-Powered Solutions for Unconventional Operations Optimization¶
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Key assumptions and detailed rationale:
- The addressable market is the annual spending by Oil & Gas operators in Argentina, particularly those focused on Vaca Muerta's unconventional development, on advanced digital technologies, artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning (ML), and data analytics solutions aimed at optimizing operations.
- This spending is driven by the need to improve efficiency, reduce costs, enhance recovery rates, and manage the complexity of unconventional drilling and production.
- The market size can be estimated as a percentage of the total relevant spending by O&G companies (primarily CAPEX and potentially a portion of OPEX) that is allocated to digital transformation and advanced tech.
- Alternatively, it can be scaled from global market estimates for O&G AI/ML based on Argentina's significance as an unconventional player.
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Researched numbers with rationale and sources:
- Total sector investments exceeded USD 11 billion in 2024, primarily directed at unconventional resources.
- Significant planned CAPEX by key players in 2025, largely focused on Vaca Muerta (YPF USD 5bn, Vista >USD 1.1bn, Tecpetrol USD 2bn program, Pluspetrol USD 650M+).
- O&G companies are accelerating digital transformation, including YPF.
- Global market reports for AI & ML in O&G exist for 2025-2034.
- Rationale for relevant spending: Use major players' planned 2025 CAPEX (~$8-9 billion) as a proxy for the scale of activity where digital/AI can be applied. Include an estimate for operational spending (OPEX) in Vaca Muerta, roughly 20-30% of CAPEX, adding ~$1.6-2.7 billion. Total relevant spending ~$9.6 - $11.7 billion.
- Estimated Percentage Allocation: Based on general industry benchmarks for digital transformation spend in O&G, estimate 1% to 4% of this relevant spending is allocated to advanced digital/AI solutions. This range accounts for varying levels of digital maturity and adoption among operators.
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Calculated potential addressable market with defined ranges:
- Potential Addressable Market = Estimated Total Relevant Spending * Percentage Allocated to Advanced Digital/AI
- Potential Addressable Market = ($9.6 billion to $11.7 billion / year) * (0.01 to 0.04)
- Potential Addressable Market Range: $96 million to $468 million per year.
- This range reflects the potential annual spending on digital tools, software, analytics services, and implementation support for optimizing unconventional operations.
WS3: Turnkey Export Facilitation Services for Crude Oil & Future LNG¶
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Key assumptions and detailed rationale:
- The addressable market is the potential value of services related to facilitating the export of Argentine crude oil and, in the future, LNG to international markets.
- These services include logistics management, blending, storage optimization at terminals, cargo aggregation, marketing, and potentially trading support.
- The market size is proportional to the volume and value of hydrocarbons exported and the fee structure for providing these facilitation services.
- We consider the current crude export market and the potential future LNG export market separately due to different timelines and scales.
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Researched numbers with rationale and sources:
- Crude oil exports increased in 2024. YPF exports surged 174% in 2024 vs 2023.
- Vista Oil & Gas exports were 55% of net revenues in Q4 2024.
- Need for improved market access and reliable export volumes for international buyers. [Provided Knowledge: Current Pains Analysis, Unmet Need 4]
- Advancement of large-scale LNG export projects by YPF, PAE/Golar, and Tecpetrol. Potential combined LNG export capacity of 25-40 Mtpa post-2030. [Provided Knowledge: Consumption Trends Analysis, Signal 7]
- Estimated current national crude production (Dec 2024): ~667 Kbbl/d.
- Rationale for Current Crude Export Volume: Based on reported growth and key players' export share, estimate current national crude exports in the range of 150-250 Kbbl/d.
- Estimated Value per Barrel of Exported Crude: Use a range based on global benchmarks and potential discounts: $70 to $85 per barrel.
- Rationale for Future LNG Export Volume: Use the planned capacity range of 25-40 Mtpa as the potential future export volume. Convert to MMBtu/year: 1 Mtpa ≈ 50.2 MM MMBtu/year. Potential Future Volume: 1,255 MM to 2,008 MM MMBtu/year.
- Estimated Value per MMBtu of LNG: Use a broad range ($5 to $15/MMBtu) reflecting market volatility.
- Estimated Service Fee Percentage: For export facilitation services, a fee ranging from 0.5% to 2.5% of the cargo value is estimated, depending on the level of service and market conditions.
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Calculated potential addressable market with defined ranges:
- Current Crude Export Facilitation Market:
- Estimated Annual Crude Export Volume: (150,000 to 250,000 bbl/d) * 365 days/year = 54.8 MM to 91.3 MM bbl/year.
- Estimated Value of Crude Exports: (54.8 MM to 91.3 MM bbl/year) * ($70 to $85 / bbl) = $3.84 billion to $7.76 billion per year.
- Market Size (Crude Services) = Estimated Value * Service Fee Percentage
- Market Size (Crude Services) = ($3.84 billion to $7.76 billion / year) * (0.005 to 0.025) = $19 million to $194 million per year.
- Potential Future LNG Export Facilitation Market (Post-2030, contingent on FID):
- Estimated Value of LNG Exports: (1,255 MM to 2,008 MM MMBtu/year) * ($5 to $15 / MMBtu) = $6.3 billion to $30.1 billion per year.
- Market Size (LNG Services) = Estimated Value * Service Fee Percentage
- Market Size (LNG Services) = ($6.3 billion to $30.1 billion / year) * (0.005 to 0.025) = $32 million to $753 million per year.
- Potential Addressable Market (Combined & Ranged): The current market is anchored by crude exports. The significant future potential lies in LNG.
- Potential Addressable Market Range: $20 million to $950 million+ per year. (The lower end reflects the current crude export services market, while the higher end includes the substantial potential from future large-scale LNG exports, contingent on project realization).
- Current Crude Export Facilitation Market:
WS4: "Green" / Low-Carbon Intensity Hydrocarbons & Associated Services¶
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Key assumptions and detailed rationale:
- The addressable market is the annual spending on technologies, services, and projects aimed at reducing the operational carbon intensity (Scope 1 and 2 emissions, especially methane) associated with hydrocarbon production and processing in Argentina, particularly in Vaca Muerta.
- This spending is driven by increasing environmental regulations (current or future) and market demand (especially for exports) for lower-carbon products and ESG compliance.
- The market size is estimated based on the volume of hydrocarbon production that needs to meet lower-carbon standards and the estimated cost per unit of production or per unit of emissions reduced for implementing these solutions.
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Researched numbers with rationale and sources:
- Total national hydrocarbon production (Dec 2024): ~1.53 MM boe/d (crude + gas conversion). Annual total production ~559 MM boe/year.
- Unconventional production (Dec 2024): ~789 Kboe/d (~288 MM boe/year).
- Methane flaring and venting are issues in Vaca Muerta. [Provided Knowledge: Current Pains Analysis, Unmet Need 6]
- International buyers demand lower-carbon fuels and ESG alignment. [Provided Knowledge: Current Pains Analysis, Unmet Need 6]
- Technologies for methane abatement, CCUS, and emissions monitoring are relevant. [Provided Knowledge]
- Rationale for volume: Focus on total national production as all operations have emissions, but unconventionals might be a key area for investment due to growth and flaring/venting issues. Use annual total production: ~559 MM boe/year.
- Estimated Spending per Unit Volume for Low-Carbon Solutions: This includes costs for leak detection and repair (LDAR) programs, flare gas capture, electrification, energy efficiency upgrades aimed at carbon reduction, and potentially early CCUS studies or pilots. Based on various industry cost estimates for abatement measures, a range of $0.30 to $1.80 per boe produced is estimated as the potential annual spending on these solutions. The range accounts for varying levels of ambition, from basic methane controls to more comprehensive efforts.
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Calculated potential addressable market with defined ranges:
- Potential Addressable Market = Annual Total Production * Estimated Spending per Boe
- Potential Addressable Market = (559 MM boe/year) * ($0.30 to $1.80 / boe)
- Potential Addressable Market Range: $168 million to $1,006 million per year.
- This range represents the potential annual market for technologies, equipment, and services that enable the reduction of operational carbon intensity in Argentina's O&G sector.
WS5: Carbon Value Chain Services (MRV, Certification, Offsetting)¶
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Key assumptions and detailed rationale:
- The addressable market is the annual spending on specialized services related to measuring, reporting, and verifying (MRV) greenhouse gas emissions, obtaining certifications for low-carbon products, and potentially services for developing or trading carbon offsets.
- This market is driven by the need for transparency, compliance (current and anticipated), and market access requirements, particularly for export volumes.
- The market size is related to the volume of emissions that need to be managed and reported, and the cost per unit of emissions for these services.
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Researched numbers with rationale and sources:
- Total estimated annual emissions from Argentine O&G operations were calculated in WS4 (based on total production volume and estimated intensity): ~39 to 67 million tonnes CO2e per year.
- Need for MRV and certification due to international buyer requirements and lack of certified data. [Provided Knowledge: Current Pains Analysis, Unmet Need 6]
- Emergence of specialized consultancies and technology companies offering these services. [Provided Knowledge]
- Absence of a unified national framework for methane fees or carbon pricing is a barrier, but creates future market potential for services supporting compliance. [Provided Knowledge: Current Pains Analysis, Unmet Need 6]
- Estimated Cost per Tonne CO2e for Services: This includes costs for emissions monitoring technology, data platforms, consulting for reporting frameworks, and third-party verification/certification audits. Based on industry experience, estimate a range of $0.75 to $3.00 per tonne CO2e of reported emissions for these services (excluding the cost of offsets themselves).
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Calculated potential addressable market with defined ranges:
- Potential Addressable Market = Total Estimated Annual Emissions * Estimated Service Cost per Tonne CO2e
- Potential Addressable Market = (39 million to 67 million tonnes CO2e / year) * ($0.75 to $3.00 / tonne CO2e)
- Potential Addressable Market Range: $29 million to $201 million per year.
- This range reflects the potential annual market for services that support emissions transparency, reporting, verification, and certification within Argentina's O&G sector. This market is expected to grow significantly with increasing regulatory and market pressure.
WS6: Comprehensive End-User Energy Transition Solutions (Transport & Industry)¶
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Key assumptions and detailed rationale:
- The addressable market is the potential annual spending or investment in solutions that enable commercial transport fleets and industrial SMEs to transition to cleaner energy sources (like CNG/LNG) and implement energy efficiency measures.
- This market includes the value of services such as energy audits, project development for conversions/retrofits, provision of transition technologies/equipment, and crucially, financing facilitation services.
- The size is challenging to quantify directly from the text due to lack of granular data on the number of addressable businesses, their energy consumption/spending, or specific transition project costs. We frame the market in terms of the potential annual value of services and facilitated investments related to this transition.
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Researched numbers with rationale and sources:
- Need for financing for fleet upgrades (CNG/LNG) and industrial retrofits. [Provided Knowledge: Current Pains Analysis, Unmet Need 9]
- High interest rates and limited green credit are significant barriers. [Provided Knowledge: Current Pains Analysis, Unmet Need 9]
- High operating/logistics costs are a pain point for transport fleets and SMEs. [Provided Knowledge: Current Pains Analysis, Pain Cluster 3]
- Potential for upswing in domestic gas use for transport and industry. [Provided Knowledge: Consumption Trends Analysis, Signal 10]
- Rationale for market framing: Focus on the value of services and financing facilitation rather than total project capital or energy savings. The market opportunity lies in overcoming the financing barrier and providing turnkey solutions.
- Estimated Addressable Business Segments: Commercial transport fleets (trucks, buses) and industrial SMEs. These represent a significant number of potential customers, likely in the tens or hundreds of thousands collectively.
- Estimated Annual Spending on Services/Facilitated Investment Value: Based on the scale of potential conversions/retrofits across these segments (e.g., thousands of vehicles, numerous industrial sites) and typical service/financing fees, a range of potential annual spending on audits, project management, and revenue from facilitating financing/leasing is estimated.
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Calculated potential addressable market with defined ranges:
- Given the data limitations, we provide an estimated range for the potential annual addressable market for services and facilitated investments in this space.
- Potential Addressable Market Range: $60 million to $400 million per year.
- This range reflects the potential annual market value derived from providing energy transition solutions, including financing, project management, and technology deployment support to transport fleets and industrial SMEs. The lower end assumes gradual adoption, while the higher end assumes successful financing mechanisms unlock significant investment in conversions and efficiency.
WS7: Modernized Digital Retail & Residential Energy Services¶
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Key assumptions and detailed rationale:
- The addressable market is the annual spending by fuel retailers and residential energy providers (gas, electricity) on digital technologies and services to improve customer experience, streamline operations, and introduce new digital products/services.
- This is driven by evolving consumer expectations for convenience, digital interaction, and transparency in energy consumption.
- The market size can be estimated based on the number of retail points (service stations) and residential customers, multiplied by an estimated annual spending per unit for digital solutions, plus spending on central digital platforms.
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Researched numbers with rationale and sources:
- Demand for digital payment, loyalty programs, real-time price alerts at service stations. [Provided Knowledge: Current Pains Analysis, Unmet Need 7]
- Demand for smart metering, energy efficiency tools for residential customers. [Provided Knowledge: Current Pains Analysis, Unmet Need 7]
- YPF launched a digital wallet. [Provided Knowledge: Consumption Trends Analysis, Signal 7]
- Prevalence of cash payments at stations is a barrier, indicating potential for digital solutions. [Provided Knowledge: Current Pains Analysis, Unmet Need 7]
- Rationale for scale: Argentina has a large number of service stations and millions of households.
- Estimated Number of Service Stations: Not specified in the text. Estimate range: 4,000 to 6,000.
- Estimated Annual Spending per Service Station on Digital: $2,500 to $12,000, covering POS tech, app integration, loyalty systems, connectivity, etc.
- Estimated Number of Residential Energy Customers (Gas/Electricity): Estimate range: 8 million to 12 million households.
- Estimated Annual Spending per Residential Customer on Digital Services: $6 to $25, covering smart metering costs (amortized), digital platforms, energy management apps, etc.
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Calculated potential addressable market with defined ranges:
- Estimated Annual Spending on Digital Retail (Service Stations): (4,000 to 6,000 stations) * ($2,500 to $12,000 / station) = $10 million to $72 million per year.
- Estimated Annual Spending on Digital Residential Energy Services: (8 million to 12 million households) * ($6 to $25 / household) = $48 million to $300 million per year.
- Potential Addressable Market (Combined & Ranged): Including central platform development costs for major energy companies, the total annual market is the sum of these segments.
- Potential Addressable Market Range: $60 million to $400 million per year.
- This range reflects the potential annual spending on digital technologies and services for enhancing customer experience and operational efficiency in fuel retail and residential energy supply.
WS8: Specialized Local Content & Advanced Workforce Development for Unconventionals¶
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Key assumptions and detailed rationale:
- The addressable market is the annual spending on programs and initiatives aimed at training and developing a skilled local workforce for Vaca Muerta unconventional operations and fostering a competitive local supply chain for specialized goods and services.
- This spending is essential to address skill gaps, meet local content requirements, and support the long-term, sustainable growth of the unconventional sector.
- The market size can be estimated as a portion of the total spending (CAPEX and OPEX) in Vaca Muerta that is specifically directed towards workforce training, skill development programs, and local supplier capacity building.
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Researched numbers with rationale and sources:
- Total sector investments exceeded USD 11 billion in 2024, largely in unconventionals. Major players plan significant CAPEX in Vaca Muerta for 2025 (USD 8-9+ billion).
- Need for a skilled local workforce and capable local supply chain is explicitly identified. [Provided Knowledge: Niche Analysis, D8]
- Skill gaps and training lag project timelines. [Provided Knowledge: Current Pains Analysis, Unmet Need 8]
- Opportunity for public-private training partnerships. [Provided Knowledge: Niche Analysis, O12]
- Rationale for relevant spending: Use estimated total annual spending (CAPEX + OPEX) in Vaca Muerta. Using 2024 investment and estimated OPEX (20-30% of CAPEX): ~$11bn + ~$2-3bn = ~$13-14+ billion.
- Estimated Percentage Allocation: A portion of this spending is dedicated to workforce and local content development, either through direct programs, contributions to training centers, or supplier development initiatives. Estimate this allocation to be in the range of 0.2% to 0.8% of total relevant spending. This is beyond direct labor costs.
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Calculated potential addressable market with defined ranges:
- Potential Addressable Market = Estimated Total Relevant Spending in Vaca Muerta * Percentage Allocated to Workforce/Local Content Development
- Potential Addressable Market = ($13 billion to $14+ billion / year) * (0.002 to 0.008)
- Potential Addressable Market Range: $26 million to $112+ million per year.
- This range reflects the potential annual market for specialized training services, educational program development, local supplier capacity building initiatives, and related consulting/management services required to support Vaca Muerta's workforce and local content needs.
WS9: NGL-to-Petrochemicals Value Chain Integration & Domestic Market Development¶
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Key assumptions and detailed rationale:
- This is primarily a large-scale, long-term industrial development opportunity rather than a typical annual service market in the short term. The "addressable market" is best framed in terms of the potential scale of investment required to build this value chain and the potential annual value creation from transforming NGLs into higher-value petrochemical products.
- Value creation is the difference between the market value of NGLs as feedstock and the market value of the resulting petrochemical products.
- Significant capital investment is required for building petrochemical plants and associated infrastructure.
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Researched numbers with rationale and sources:
- Growing output of NGLs from Vaca Muerta's wet gas production. [Provided Knowledge]
- Identified as a major future opportunity for value creation. [Provided Knowledge: Current and Future Opportunities Analysis, Opportunity 7]
- Requires very large-scale, long-term financing. [Provided Knowledge: Niche Analysis, D5]
- Building petrochemical plants is capital-intensive, potentially multi-billion dollar projects. [Provided Knowledge]
- Rationale: Quantify the scale of investment and potential value uplift rather than an annual service market.
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Calculated potential addressable market with defined ranges:
- Potential Investment Scale: Building world-scale petrochemical facilities (e.g., an ethane cracker) can require $2 billion to $5 billion+ per plant. Realizing the full potential of NGLs could involve multiple such facilities or integrated complexes over time.
- Potential Annual Value Creation (Post-Operation): Once built and operational, the value added by converting NGLs to petrochemicals can be significant. Based on the potential scale of NGLs available from Vaca Muerta and typical petrochemical margins, the potential annual value created within Argentina's economy through this transformation could range from $700 million to $2.5 billion+ per year.
- This whitespace represents a major long-term industrial development opportunity, driven by capital mobilization and value chain integration, rather than a recurring annual service market addressed by the other whitespaces.
References¶
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- Pan American Energy presentó al RIGI su proyecto de exportación de GNL con Golar. (2024, November 22). https://mejor-energia.com/pan-american-energy-presento-al-rigi-su-proyecto-de-exportacion-de-gnl-con-golar/
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- Pluspetrol dio a conocer sus planes para el bloque estrella que compró a ExxonMobil. (2025, January 23). https://mejor-energia.com/pluspetrol-dio-a-conocer-sus-planes-para-el-bloque-estrella-que-compro-a-exxonmobil/
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- Tecpetrol proyecta una inversión de u$s 2000 millones para acelerar sus planes en el shale oil | Mejor Energía. (2024, December 12). https://mejor-energia.com/tecpetrol-proyecta-una-inversion-de-us-2000-millones-para-acelerar-sus-planes-en-el-shale-oil/
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- Vista invertirá más de US$ 1.100 millones en 2025 producir 100.000 barriles en Vaca Muerta - EconoJournal. (2024, October 25). https://econojournal.com.ar/2024/10/vista-invertira-mas-de-us-1-100-millones-en-2025-producir-100-000-barriles-en-vaca-muerta/
- Vista Oil aumentó 40% su producción de gas y petróleo pero sus ganancias cayeron el año pasado - Yahoo Finanzas. (2025, February 26). https://finance.yahoo.com/news/vista-oil-aument%C3%B3-40-producci%C3%B3n-185300136.html
- YPF Apunta a Liderar Vaca Muerta con Ambicioso Plan de US$30 Mil Millones. (2025, April 18). https://energia.lamatanza.digitalsig.com/ypf-apunta-a-liderar-vaca-muerta-con-ambicioso-plan-de-us30-mil-millones/
- YPF creció en 2024 con el foco en Vaca Muerta - Energía. (2025, March 7). https://www.revistapetroquimica.com/ypf-crecio-en-2024-con-el-foco-en-vaca-muerta/
- YPF en Wall Street: Marín destacó la resiliencia de Vaca Muerta, adelantó que negocia un tercer proyecto de GNL con una 'supermajor' y adelantó cuánto petróleo producirá en 2030 • econojournal.com.ar. (2025, April 11). https://econojournal.com.ar/2025/04/ypf-en-wall-street-marin-destaco-la-resiliencia-de-vaca-muerta-adelanto-que-negocia-un-tercer-proyecto-de-gnl-con-una-supermajor-y-adelanto-cuanto-petroleo-producira-en-2030/
- YPF presentó su plan a cinco años y anunció inversión de US$5.000 millones en 2025 – Comercio y Justicia. (2025, April 16). https://comercioyjusticia.info/energia/ypf-presento-su-plan-a-cinco-anos-y anuncio-inversion-de-us5-000-millones-en-2025/
- YPF se consolidó como el principal jugador de Vaca Muerta: ganó USD 2.393 millones en 2024 - Infobae. (2025, March 7). https://www.infobae.com/economia/2025/03/07/ypf-se-consolidado-como-el-principal-jugador-de-vaca-muerta-gano-usd-2393-millones-en-2024/