Steel in Argentina Global vs Local Outlook Analysis¶
Global vs Local outlook¶
This report provides a comparative analysis of the global and local outlooks for the steel value chain, drawing insights from recent trends and forecasts for 2024 and 2025, as well as the specific conditions of the Argentine steel industry.
Globally, the steel market is navigating a challenging period marked by several years of demand contraction. In 2024, global steel demand is projected to decline further, influenced by ongoing economic headwinds such as reduced household purchasing power, restrictive monetary policies, and geopolitical instability. A significant factor in this downturn is the slump in housing construction in major markets, including China, the US, and Europe. However, a modest recovery in global demand is anticipated for 2025, driven partly by continued infrastructure investment and expected rebounds in some developed economies and developing regions outside of China. Despite this projected recovery, global consumption is expected to remain below pre-pandemic levels. A major structural challenge globally is the persistent and growing issue of overcapacity, which puts downward pressure on prices and profitability and is exacerbated by new capacity additions and state support in some regions.
In stark contrast, the local outlook for the Argentine steel industry in 2024 and early 2025 appears significantly more challenging, largely due to severe domestic macroeconomic conditions. Argentina's steel sector has been hit hard by subdued domestic demand, resulting in substantial drops in production volumes and alarmingly low capacity utilization rates, reported at around 40% in February 2025. The industry experienced a double-digit contraction in 2024. While some recovery in demand, particularly from the energy sector (Vaca Muerta), is hoped for in 2025, levels are expected to remain below those of 2023. Similar to the global market, the Argentine industry faces pressure from imports, particularly from countries like China, Turkey, and Brazil. This import competition is intensified by high local costs and taxes, which erode the competitiveness of domestically produced steel.
In terms of raw materials, the global industry faces fluctuating prices influenced by various economic and policy factors. Argentina's heavy reliance on imported iron ore makes it particularly vulnerable to international price swings and exchange rate volatility, adding a layer of cost uncertainty not uniformly experienced by all global producers. The local market also faces a projected deficit in scrap metal, which is crucial for Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) based steelmaking, a technology seen as key globally for decarbonization.
Technologically, the global trend is towards increased digitalization, automation, AI, and the adoption of advanced manufacturing techniques to boost efficiency and quality. Sustainability is a major global strategic priority, with significant investments planned and underway in green steel production methods, hydrogen-based steelmaking, EAFs, and carbon capture technologies, driven by tightening regulations and market demand. In Argentina, while the industry is described as technically mature, the widespread adoption of advanced digital technologies is not explicitly detailed. There is an emerging focus on sustainability, evidenced by a pilot "green arrabio" project, and recognition that significant future investment is required for the environmental transition. However, the current economic difficulties may constrain the pace of such capital-intensive technological and environmental upgrades compared to global leaders.
Overall, both global and local outlooks share challenges related to weak demand and import competition. However, Argentina's situation is compounded by acute domestic macroeconomic instability, high local operating costs, and a challenging tax environment, leading to a more severe contraction and lower capacity utilization than the global average. While sustainability and technological advancement are global priorities, Argentina is in the early stages of these transitions, potentially facing greater hurdles in financing necessary investments due to the local economic climate.
Trends detailing¶
| Feature | Global Trends (2024-2025 Outlook) | Local Trends (Argentina - 2024-2025 Outlook) | Similarities | Differences |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steel Demand | Decline in 2024, modest recovery expected in 2025 (below pre-pandemic levels). Driven by infrastructure and developing economies. Impacted by housing slump and economic headwinds. | Subdued domestic demand in 2024 and early 2025. Double-digit industrial contraction in 2024. Low capacity utilization (40% in Feb 2025). Expected modest recovery in 2025, potentially energy-driven, but below 2023 levels. | Weak demand is a shared challenge in 2024. A modest recovery is anticipated in 2025 in both outlooks. | Local demand contraction in Argentina appears more severe and directly tied to domestic macroeconomic instability. Global recovery is driven by a broader set of factors and regions. |
| Steel Production | Slight decline in global crude steel production in 2024, modest rebound forecast for 2025. Major issue with growing global overcapacity. | Significant slump in 2024 (-26% YoY). Volatility and low capacity utilization (40% in Feb 2025). Production heavily impacted by weak local demand. | Both face challenges impacting production volumes and capacity utilization. Global overcapacity contributes to local import pressure. | Argentina's production levels and capacity utilization are significantly lower due to severe domestic demand weakness, highlighting a more acute local challenge compared to the global picture. |
| Raw Materials | Fluctuating prices expected. Rising costs for certain materials predicted in 2025. | Heavy reliance on imported iron ore (vulnerable to FX and global prices). Domestic natural gas used. Scrap deficit projected. | Both are subject to volatile raw material prices. | Argentina's high dependence on imported iron ore creates specific vulnerabilities to exchange rates and international markets. A local scrap deficit is an identified challenge. |
| Technology Adoption | Increasing adoption of digitalization, automation, AI, IoT for efficiency and quality. | Industry described as "technically mature". Recognition of need for investment in low-carbon technologies (H₂-DRI, EAF). Pilot "green arrabio" project. | Awareness of the importance of technological advancement, particularly for sustainability. | Global trends show more widespread and detailed adoption of advanced digital technologies. Local focus is currently more on the need for environmental transition technologies and a specific pilot project. |
| Sustainability | Strong focus on decarbonization, green steel, hydrogen, EAFs, carbon capture. Driven by regulations and market demand. Significant investments anticipated. | Emerging strategic response ("green" arrabio project). Recognition of need for billions in retrofits for low-carbon transition. | Both acknowledge the importance of environmental transition and low-carbon steel production. | The global industry shows more advanced stages of planning and investment in diverse green technologies. Argentina is at an earlier stage with a pilot project and the need for large-scale retrofits highlighted as a challenge, potentially constrained by economic factors. |
| Challenges | Global economic headwinds, tight monetary policies, geopolitical tensions, housing slump. Global excess capacity, import competition (especially from China). High costs and financing. Trade uncertainty. Supply chain constraints. | Depressed domestic demand. High local costs (dollarized energy, logistics, inflation). Taxation cascade. Import pressure & unfair trade. Raw material import dependency. Scrap deficit. Infrastructure constraints. Macroeconomic volatility. | Weak demand and import competition are shared challenges. High costs are a challenge in both contexts. | Argentina faces unique severe local challenges: acute macroeconomic instability, high and cascading local taxes, specific infrastructure bottlenecks, and a more pronounced impact of high local costs on global competitiveness. |
References¶
- Reportacero. “Cae 2.2 % producción de acero de Argentina a 316 400 toneladas en febrero.” https://reportacero.com/cae-2-2-produccion-de-acero-de-argentina-a-316400-toneladas-en-febrero/
- Metal Centrum S.A. “Productos Metalúrgicos.” https://www.metal-sa.com.ar/
- Infobae. “La producción de acero se desplomó 35 % interanual en junio.” https://www.infobae.com/economia/2024/07/25/la-produccion-de-acero-se-desplomo-35-interanual-en-junio/
- Juan Navarro. “Quienes Somos.” https://www.jnavarro.com.ar/quienes-somos/
- Página12. “La producción de acero crudo cayó 27 % interanual.” https://www.pagina12.com.ar/715023-la-produccion-de-acero-crudo-cayo-27-interanual
- Reportacero. “Cae 18 % producción de acero de Argentina.” https://reportacero.com/cae-18-produccion-de-acero-de-argentina/
- Diarionoticias. “La producción de acero crudo creció en julio 12 % interanual.” https://www.diarionoticias.com.ar/noticias/la-produccion-de-acero-crudo-crecio-en-julio-12-interanual
- SWI swissinfo.ch. “La producción de acero de Argentina bajó un 2,2 % interanual en febrero.” https://www.swissinfo.ch/spa/argentina-industria-la-producci%C3%B3n-de-acero-de-argentina-baj%C3%B3-un-2-2--interanual-en-febrero/88084459
- Reportacero. “Sube 14.2 % producción argentina de acero a 313900 toneladas en julio.” https://reportacero.com/sube-14-2-produccion-argentina-de-acero-a-313900-toneladas-en-julio/
- Siderdato. “Ranking de Distribuidores de Acero.” https://siderdato.com/ranking-de-distribuidores-de-acero/
- Argentina.gob.ar. “Siderurgia.” https://www.argentina.gob.ar/sites/default/files/informe_siderurgia_-_ssprys_0.pdf
- Infobae. “La producción siderúrgica muestra signos de mejora.” https://www.infobae.com/economia/2024/08/28/la-produccion-siderurgica-muestra-signos-de-mejora/
- SWI swissinfo.ch. “La actividad industrial de Argentina cayó un 9,4 % en 2024.” https://www.swissinfo.ch/spa/argentina-econom%C3%ADa-la-actividad-industrial-de-argentina-cay%C3%B3-un-9-4--en-2024/88236769
- El Destape. “El proyecto siderúrgico que revolucionará el norte argentino: cómo avanza la fábrica de arrabio verde en Formosa.” https://www.eldestapeweb.com/economia/formosa/el-proyecto-siderurgico-que-revolucionara-el-norte-argentino-como-avanza-la-fabrica-de-arrabio-verde-en-formosa--2024112811390
- INDEC. “Utilización de la capacidad instalada en la industria. Julio de 2023.” https://www.indec.gob.ar/uploads/informesperiodicos/utiliz_cap_inst_09_23.pdf
- Ámbito Financiero. “La producción de acero se desplomó 26 % en 2024.” https://www.ambito.com/economia/acero/la-produccion-se-desplomo-26-2024-n5926547
- SWI swissinfo.ch. “La industria y la construcción de Argentina tuvieron en 2024 su peor año en dos décadas.” https://www.swissinfo.ch/spa/argentina-econom%C3%ADa-la-industria-y-la-construcci%C3%B3n-de-argentina-tuvieron-en-2024-su-peor-a%C3%B1o-en-dos-d%C3%A9cadas/88236774
- CAA / Infobae. “Producción argentina de acero crudo cayó un 2,2 % interanual en febrero de este año.” https://www.infobae.com/economia/2025/03/28/la-produccion-argentina-de-acero-crudo-cayo-un-22-interanual-en-febrero-de-este-ano/
- Ocipex. “Panorama global, regional y nacional de la industria del acero.” https://ocipex.com/panorama-global-regional-y-nacional-de-la-industria-del-acero/
- Agencia Argentina de Inversiones y Comercio Internacional. “Metalurgia y siderurgia.” https://www.investargentina.org.ar/sectores/metalurgia-y-siderurgia
- Eurofer. "Economic and steel market outlook 2024-2025, fourth quarter". https://eurofer.eu/publications/economic-reports/economic-and-steel-market-outlook-2024-2025-q4/
- World Steel Association. "Global steel demand outlook for 2024 and 2025: Challenges and recovery prospects". https://worldsteel.org/steel-by-topic/statistics/short-range-outlook/
- World Steel Association. "worldsteel Short Range Outlook October 2024". https://worldsteel.org/media-centre/press-releases/2024/worldsteel-short-range-outlook-october-2024/
- Federal Steel Supply. "Emerging Trends in the Steel Industry for 2024". https://federalsteelsupply.com/blog/steel-industry-trends-2024/
- Fastmarkets. "2025 crude steel production forecast: Global trends and insights". https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/2025-crude-steel-production-forecast-global-trends-and-insights/
- Avocet Steel. "Steel Industry Outlook for 2024-2025: Economic Trends and Strategic Insights for Precision Metals". https://avocetsteel.com/steel-industry-outlook-2024-2025/
- Research and Markets. "Mining Steel Industry Market Report 2025-2035: Growing Demand for Specialty Steel Products Presents Lucrative Opportunities". https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/05/09/3983184/0/en/Mining-Steel-Industry-Market-Report-2025-2035-Growing-Demand-for-Specialty-Steel-Products-Presents-Lucrative-Opportunities.html
- Bakrie & Brothers. "5 Steel Industry Challenges in 2025". https://bakriecorp.com/news/5-steel-industry-challenges-in-2025
- Federal Steel Supply. "Steel Industry Trends 2025: Innovations, Sustainability & Market Shifts". https://federalsteelsupply.com/blog/steel-industry-trends-2025/
- GII Research. "Global Steel Market - 2025-2032". https://www.giiresearch.com/report/gii281841-global-steel-market.html
- OECD. "OECD warns of deepening global crisis in the global steel industry". https://www.gmk.center/en/news/oecd-warns-of-deepening-global-crisis-in-the-global-steel-industry/
- Tata nexarc Blog. "Steel Sector Insights: Trends & Future in 2025". https://www.nexarc.com/blog/steel-sector-trends/
- GlobeNewswire. "Steel Global Industry Industry Business Analysis Report 2025: China Remains the Dominant Steel Exporter, European Union Becomes the Top Steel Importer - Global Forecast to 2030". https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/02/11/3949741/0/en/Steel-Global-Industry-Industry-Business-Analysis-Report-2025-China-Remains-the-Dominant-Steel-Exporter-European-Union-Becomes-the-Top-Steel-Importer-Global-Forecast-to-2030.html
- StartUs Insights. "Top 10 Trends in the Steel Industry (2025)". https://www.startus-insights.com/innovators/steel-industry-trends/
- ResearchAndMarkets.com. "Mining Steel Industry Market Analysis and Forecast, 2025-2035 | Carbon Steel Remains Dominant in Steel Market by 2035". https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250502434043/en/Mining-Steel-Industry-Market-Analysis-and-Forecast-2025-2035-Carbon-Steel-Remains-Dominant-in-Steel-Market-by-2035---ResearchAndMarkets.com