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Banking in Chile Potential Addressable Market

Addressable Market Calculation

Here we quantify the potential addressable market (TAM) for each identified whitespace in the Chilean banking sector based on defined assumptions and researched numbers. The TAM represents the potential annual revenue opportunity if the solutions addressing these whitespaces achieve significant adoption within their target segments.

1. Alternative Data-Driven Financial Inclusion for "Thin-File" Populations

  • Key Assumptions and Detailed Rationale:

    • Target Segment Size: The primary target segment comprises unbanked adults and informal micro-entrepreneurs who currently face significant barriers to accessing traditional financial services. While there is overlap between these groups, quantifying them separately helps understand the different facets of the inclusion gap. The market opportunity lies in providing them with basic accounts, micro-credit, and potentially other essential financial products tailored to their needs and risk profiles, enabled by alternative data.
    • Estimated Average Annual Revenue per Customer: This represents the potential yearly revenue generated from an active customer within this segment. This would include potential interest income from micro-loans, low or no fees for basic accounts (offset by transaction volumes or fees for limited premium features), and potentially revenue from bundled micro-insurance or payment services. Given the low-income nature of a significant portion of this segment, the per-customer revenue is expected to be relatively low compared to traditional banking segments.

  • Researched Numbers with Rationale and Sources:

    • Number of Unbanked Adults: Approximately 1.7 million adults in Chile are unbanked. [Current Pains Analysis; Acceso a productos y servicios bancarios – Centro Nacional de Estudios Migratorios, 2023] This figure represents a core part of the target population.
    • Number of Informal Micro-entrepreneurs: Around 1.15 million informal microenterprises exist in Chile as of 2023 data. These micro-businesses often lack access to formal business credit and financial tools, representing a distinct but overlapping segment with the unbanked.
    • Total Target Segment Size Range: Based on the above, a reasonable estimate for the total addressable population, considering overlap and potential for reaching underbanked individuals beyond the strictly unbanked, is a range from 1.7 million (primarily unbanked individuals) to 2.5 million (including a portion of informal micro-entrepreneurs).
    • Estimated Average Annual Revenue per Customer Range: Based on typical microfinance models and potential for low-cost digital service delivery, a range of $20 to $50 USD per year per active customer is estimated. This accounts for small transaction revenues and limited product uptake value.

  • Calculated Potential Addressable Market:

    • Formula: Target Segment Size * Estimated Average Annual Revenue per Customer
    • Calculation: (1,700,000 to 2,500,000 individuals/micro-entrepreneurs) * ($20 to $50 USD / year)
    • Range: $34,000,000 to $125,000,000 USD per year.

2. End-to-End Digital SME Banking with Embedded Value-Added Services

  • Key Assumptions and Detailed Rationale:

    • Target Segment Size: The target segment is the universe of Micro, Small, and Medium-sized Enterprises (MiPymes) in Chile, particularly those that are formal or could be formalized and are willing to adopt integrated digital banking and value-added services. The opportunity lies in providing a unified platform that simplifies banking operations (loans, payments, accounts) and embeds relevant non-banking services (e.g., invoicing, accounting, potentially ESG tools), addressing their stated pain points around credit access, cost, and digital experience.
    • Estimated Average Annual Revenue per SME: This represents the potential yearly revenue from an active SME using the integrated digital platform. Revenue sources include traditional banking fees (accounts, transactions), interest income from loans (potentially at better terms due to improved data), and fees or revenue-sharing from embedded value-added services. The revenue potential per SME is significantly higher than for individuals, but varies based on the size and activity level of the SME.

  • Researched Numbers with Rationale and Sources:

    • Total Number of MiPymes: There are approximately 1.2 million MiPymes in Chile. Another source indicates around 662,255 registered MiPYMES. Informal microenterprises account for a significant portion (~1.15 million).
    • Target Segment Size Range: We focus on formal and formalizable SMEs who are likely candidates for adopting an end-to-end digital platform. A range from 600,000 (representing a significant portion of formal SMEs) to 1.2 million (including a large portion of informal micro-enterprises who could transition to using such platforms with tailored solutions) is used.
    • Estimated Average Annual Revenue per SME Range: Considering the financial needs and potential for value-added services for SMEs of different sizes, a wide range of $200 to $1000 USD per year per active SME user is estimated. This accounts for banking product usage and fees from integrated services.

  • Calculated Potential Addressable Market:

    • Formula: Target Segment Size * Estimated Average Annual Revenue per SME
    • Calculation: (600,000 to 1,200,000 SMEs) * ($200 to $1000 USD / year)
    • Range: $120,000,000 to $1,200,000,000 USD per year.

3. Hyper-Personalized Financial Wellness Platforms for the Mass Market

  • Key Assumptions and Detailed Rationale:

    • Target Segment Size: The target segment comprises digital banking users within the mass retail market who are seeking better financial understanding, personalized guidance, and simplified access to products. The opportunity lies in providing platforms that leverage data (including potentially Open Finance data from 2026) and AI to offer tailored insights, budgeting tools, savings recommendations, and simplified pathways to relevant financial products (like investments or insurance).
    • Estimated Average Annual Revenue per Active Platform User: Revenue for such a platform could come from premium feature subscriptions, fees for advanced personalized advice (e.g., robo-advisory tiers), or revenue share from increased uptake of banking products driven by platform recommendations. Given the mass market nature, the per-user revenue is expected to be modest, likely based on a freemium or low-cost premium model.

  • Researched Numbers with Rationale and Sources:

    • Total Adult Population: Approximately 15.2 million adults in Chile (aged 15+). [Calculated from 18.48 million total censados in Censo 2024, minus 17.7% aged 0-14]
    • Number of Unbanked Adults: Around 1.7 million. [Current Pains Analysis]
    • Estimated Banked Population: Approximately 13.5 million adults (15.2 million total adults - 1.7 million unbanked).
    • Estimated Digital Banking Users: A significant portion of banked users are digital-first. 72% of users prefer fully digital banks, and digital adoption is high. Based on this, we estimate that 70-80% of the banked population are active digital banking users. This equates to a range of 9.5 million to 11 million users.
    • Estimated Average Annual Revenue per Active Platform User Range: Based on potential monetization strategies like premium features or product upsell, a range of $10 to $30 USD per year per active user is estimated.

  • Calculated Potential Addressable Market:

    • Formula: Number of Digital Banking Users * Estimated Average Annual Revenue per Active Platform User
    • Calculation: (9,500,000 to 11,000,000 users) * ($10 to $30 USD / year)
    • Range: $95,000,000 to $330,000,000 USD per year.

4. Trust-Centric Data & Security Solutions for the Open Finance Era

  • Key Assumptions and Detailed Rationale:

    • Target Segment Size: This whitespace addresses the critical need for enhanced trust and security in a rapidly digitalizing and interconnected financial ecosystem, especially with the advent of Open Finance. The target includes all digital banking users (as recipients of enhanced security features and data controls) and all entities participating in the Open Finance ecosystem (banks and registered fintechs, who need robust B2B security and consent management infrastructure). The market value comes from providing core security services, fraud prevention tools, consent management platforms, and potentially related offerings like cyber-insurance.
    • Estimated Average Annual Revenue: Revenue can be generated from end-users (B2C) through premium security features or add-on services, and from participating entities (B2B) through platform fees, transaction-based security services, or data security solutions. The B2B revenue per entity is expected to be significantly higher than the B2C revenue per user.

  • Researched Numbers with Rationale and Sources:

    • Number of Digital Banking Users: Estimated 9.5 million to 11 million adults. [Calculated above]
    • Number of Entities Registered under Fintech Law: As of December 2024, 168 entities were inscribed and 165 authorized, with 132 in process. By February 2025, 335 applications were received. A range of 300 to 400 registered and authorized entities represents the core participants in the regulated fintech/Open Finance ecosystem.
    • Estimated Average Annual B2C Security Revenue per User Range: A range of $5 to $15 USD per year is estimated for premium user-facing security features or low-cost cyber-insurance add-ons.
    • Estimated Average Annual B2B Security Revenue per Entity Range: A range of $10,000 to $50,000 USD per year is estimated for providing security platforms, APIs, fraud monitoring services, or consent management tools to other financial ecosystem participants.

  • Calculated Potential Addressable Market:

    • Formula: (Number of Digital Banking Users * Avg Annual B2C Security Revenue per User) + (Number of Open Finance Entities * Avg Annual B2B Security Revenue per Entity)
    • Calculation: (9,500,000 to 11,000,000 users * $5 to $15 / year) + (300 to 400 entities * $10,000 to $50,000 / year)
    • B2C Range: $47,500,000 to $165,000,000 USD
    • B2B Range: $3,000,000 to $20,000,000 USD
    • Total Range: $50,500,000 to $185,000,000 USD per year.

5. Accessible Green Finance & ESG Solutions for Individuals & SMEs

  • Key Assumptions and Detailed Rationale:

    • Target Segment Size: This whitespace targets individuals and SMEs who are interested in aligning their financial activities with environmental, social, and governance (ESG) principles. The market opportunity involves developing and offering accessible green loans (e.g., for energy efficiency, sustainable projects), ESG-focused investment products, sustainable savings options, and potentially ESG reporting or advisory tools for businesses. While ESG interest is growing, it is still a niche segment within the broader population and SME landscape.
    • Estimated Average Annual Revenue per Active ESG Customer: Revenue would stem from potential premiums on green loan products, management fees on ESG investment funds, or fees for ESG-related services for SMEs. The value per customer is expected to be higher than for basic inclusion products but varies based on the type of product and customer segment (individual vs. SME).

  • Researched Numbers with Rationale and Sources:

    • Estimated Potential Customers: Quantifying the exact size of the ESG-interested segment is challenging with available data. We estimate the target segment as a percentage of the banked population (for individuals) and formal SMEs, assuming an initial adoption rate. Based on growing trends and bank investments in this area, we estimate that 5-10% of banked individuals and 10-20% of formal SMEs could be potential early adopters.
      • Banked Individuals: ~13.5 million. [Calculated above] Potential: 0.7 million to 1.4 million.
      • Formal SMEs: ~660,000. Potential: 0.07 million to 0.13 million.
      • Total Potential ESG Customers Range: 0.8 million to 1.5 million (summing estimated potential individuals and SMEs).
    • Estimated Average Annual Revenue per Active ESG Customer Range: Based on potential revenue streams like fees on specialized products, a range of $25 to $100 USD per year per active customer is estimated, reflecting a blended average across individuals and SMEs.

  • Calculated Potential Addressable Market:

    • Formula: Number of Potential ESG Customers * Estimated Average Annual Revenue per Active ESG Customer
    • Calculation: (800,000 to 1,500,000 customers) * ($25 to $100 USD / year)
    • Range: $20,000,000 to $150,000,000 USD per year.

6. "Banking-as-a-Service" (BaaS) & Embedded Finance for Niche Communities/Industries

  • Key Assumptions and Detailed Rationale:

    • Target Segment Size: This whitespace focuses on enabling non-financial platforms or businesses serving specific niche communities or industries to embed financial services directly into their own customer journeys. The ultimate beneficiaries are the individuals and SMEs within these niches (e.g., gig economy workers, businesses in specific sectors like agriculture, migrant communities). The market opportunity for banks lies in providing the underlying BaaS infrastructure and APIs, generating revenue from the platforms (B2B2C model) or potentially a share of revenue from the end-users' financial transactions conducted via the embedded services. Quantifying this directly is difficult, so we estimate the size based on the potential number of end-users in relevant niches reachable through this model.
    • Estimated Average Annual Revenue per Active User: Revenue is generated indirectly through the platform partnership. It represents the value captured by the bank per active individual or SME using the embedded financial services within the niche platform. This could be a portion of transaction fees, interest income on small loans facilitated, or fees for basic banking functionalities.

  • Researched Numbers with Rationale and Sources:

    • Potential Niche Users: We consider segments like gig economy workers (estimated 300,000 - 500,000 based on a 2021 estimate and informal labor trends), and a portion of the unbanked/underbanked population (estimated 1.7M+) that could be better served through niche platforms (e.g., migrant communities). Quantifying users in specific industries like agriculture for embedded finance is difficult with available data. We estimate a total addressable user base within relevant niches reachable via embedded finance/BaaS platforms to be in the range of 0.5 million to 1.5 million individuals/SMEs.
    • Estimated Average Annual Revenue per Active User Range: Based on the nature of embedded, often transactional or micro-credit focused services, a range of $30 to $70 USD per year per active user is estimated, reflecting the value captured by the bank through the platform.

  • Calculated Potential Addressable Market:

    • Formula: Number of Potential Active Users in Target Niches * Estimated Average Annual Revenue per Active User
    • Calculation: (500,000 to 1,500,000 users) * ($30 to $70 USD / year)
    • Range: $15,000,000 to $105,000,000 USD per year.

References

  • Value Chain Report on the Banking Industry in Chile. (Provided Knowledge)
  • Banking in Chile Current and Future Opportunities Analysis. (Provided Knowledge)
  • Banking in Chile Ongoing Changes Signals Analysis. (Provided Knowledge)
  • Banking in Chile Current Pains Analysis. (Provided Knowledge)
  • Banking in Chile Consumption Trends Analysis. (Provided Knowledge)
  • Banking in Chile Niche and Emerging Markets Analysis. (Provided Knowledge)
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