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Energy in Chile Emerging Consumption Needs Analysis

Impact of Behavior Changes

Based on the analysis of the "Current Behavior Changes Analysis" and the "Value Chain Analysis", two key shifts in customer behavior are significantly impacting consumption patterns and revealing emerging needs within the Chilean energy value chain in 2024 and 2025.

The first significant behavior change is the increased tariffs for regulated customers. This rise in electricity costs for residential, commercial, and small industrial users, driven by legacy fossil fuel-indexed contracts and the unwinding of price stabilization, is creating affordability concerns. This economic pressure is expected to drive regulated customers towards a greater awareness of their energy consumption and a potential behavioral shift towards reducing usage and improving energy efficiency to mitigate the impact of higher bills. While specific data on the extent of demand reduction is not detailed, the financial incentive is a strong catalyst for change in consumption habits within this large customer segment.

The second crucial behavior change is the proactive procurement of renewable energy by large (free) customers. Major consumers, such as mining companies and large industries, are increasingly bypassing regulated tenders to negotiate direct bilateral PPAs with generators, with a clear preference for renewable energy sources often coupled with energy storage. This behavior is fueled by corporate sustainability targets and the economic attractiveness of long-term, stable renewable energy prices. This signifies a shift from simply procuring energy to strategically securing cleaner, more predictable, and potentially more cost-effective supply tailored to their specific operational needs.

These behavior changes are directly influencing consumption needs and revealing new demands on the energy value chain:

Emerging Consumption Needs:

  1. Increased demand for Energy Efficiency Solutions: Driven by rising tariffs, regulated customers will have a greater need for tools, services, and technologies that help them monitor, understand, and reduce their electricity consumption. This includes smart metering, energy audits, energy-efficient appliances, and potentially incentives or programs for efficiency upgrades.
  2. Growing interest in Distributed Generation (Self-Consumption): As tariffs increase, regulated customers may find economic incentives to generate their own electricity, primarily through rooftop solar PV (NetBilling). This signifies a need for easier interconnection processes, clearer regulations, and potentially financial support mechanisms for small-scale renewable installations.
  3. Demand for Customized, Long-Term Renewable Energy Contracts: Free customers are explicitly demanding tailored PPAs for renewable energy, often requiring specific generation profiles and the integration of energy storage to ensure firm and reliable supply. This necessitates flexible offerings from generators and a market that can support complex contractual arrangements.
  4. Need for Grid Flexibility and Reliability Services (driven by large renewable procurement): The integration of large volumes of intermittent renewable energy contracted by free customers increases the need for grid-level flexibility and reliability services. This creates an emerging need for energy storage solutions, demand-side management programs, and advanced grid management technologies to ensure system stability despite variable generation.
  5. Transparency and Predictability in Energy Costs: Both regulated and free customers demonstrate a need for greater transparency in how energy costs are determined. For regulated customers, understanding tariff structures and the impact of legacy contracts is crucial. For free customers, predictability in long-term renewable PPA pricing is a key driver.

These emerging needs highlight a shift in customer expectations beyond simple electricity supply towards more cost-effective, sustainable, reliable, and tailored energy solutions.

Table of potential impact of these needs

Emerging Consumption Need Potential Impact on Value Chain Stage(s) & Relationships
Increased demand for Energy Efficiency Solutions Distribution <-> Regulated Customers: Strengthens the need for distributors to offer energy efficiency programs and data tools. May reduce overall demand growth in the distribution segment. Cross-Cutting: Creates market opportunities for energy service companies.
Growing interest in Distributed Generation (Self-Consumption) Distribution: Requires adaptation of distribution networks and billing systems for NetBilling; potential reduction in energy purchased by distributors for regulated customers. Generation: Reduced demand from distribution companies in the long term.
Demand for Customized, Long-Term Renewable Energy Contracts Generation <-> Free Customers: Increases the importance of bilateral PPA negotiations and the development of diverse renewable energy and storage projects tailored to specific industrial needs. Transmission/Distribution: May require dedicated connections or reinforcement for large users.
Need for Grid Flexibility and Reliability Services Generation: Drives investment in dispatchable renewables and energy storage. Transmission/System Operator: Increases the need for advanced grid management, forecasting, and ancillary services. All Stages: Impacts system costs which are ultimately passed through.
Transparency and Predictability in Energy Costs Distribution <-> Regulated Customers: Requires clearer communication on tariff components. Generators <-> Free Customers: Reinforces the value of stable, long-term PPA pricing. Regulatory Bodies: Pressure to review and potentially reform pricing mechanisms, especially related to legacy contracts.

References

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