Payment in Chile Potential Addressable Market¶

Addressable Market Calculation¶

This section quantifies the potential addressable market for each identified whitespace in the Chilean payment industry based on the analysis of available information up to Q1 2025. The calculations are based on key assumptions and available data points, presented with ranges where precise numbers are not available.

1. Unified National QR/NFC Payment Standard¶

Key Assumptions and Rationale:
- Addressable Transaction Volume: The potential market size for a unified national standard is directly related to the value of transactions that could be processed through it. This standard would primarily address non-cash retail payments (both physical and online) currently handled by cards, bank transfers, and existing fragmented digital wallets. We assume a significant portion of this existing volume is addressable.
- Potential Revenue Capture Rate: Providers enabling or operating this standard would capture revenue through transaction fees or a share of the transaction value. This rate is assumed to be lower than current average card Merchant Discount Rates (MDRs) due to increased efficiency and competition but higher than zero to cover infrastructure and service costs.
Researched Numbers with Rationale and Sources:
- Annual Card Transaction Value (2024): USD 132.56 billion. This represents a large segment of the non-cash retail market. [Value Chain Definition]
- E-commerce GMV (2023): USD 34 billion. This is a growing digital segment highly relevant for QR/NFC payments. [Value Chain Definition]
- Estimated Total Addressable Non-Cash Retail Volume: Based on the large card volume and significant e-commerce, we estimate the total non-cash retail transaction value potentially addressable by a unified standard to be in the range of USD 100 billion to USD 150 billion annually. This range accounts for overlaps between card and e-commerce figures and includes other non-cash methods.
- Potential Average Revenue Capture Rate: Based on the potential for lower-cost processing similar to PISPs (30-50 bps mentioned for A2A) but needing to cover scheme/infrastructure costs, we estimate a revenue capture rate ranging from 0.5% to 1.5% of the transaction value. [Value Chain Analysis - Business Models, Ongoing Changes Signals Analysis]
Calculated Potential Addressable Market:
- Formula: Addressable Transaction Volume * Potential Revenue Capture Rate
- Lower bound: USD 100 billion * 0.5% = USD 500 million
- Upper bound: USD 150 billion * 1.5% = USD 2.25 billion
- Potential Addressable Market Range: USD 500 million to USD 2.25 billion annually.

2. Real-Time Settlement & Transparent Pricing for SMEs¶

Key Assumptions and Rationale:
- Number of Digitally Accepting SMEs: The market size is based on the number of small and medium-sized enterprises that accept or could accept digital payments and experience pain points with current settlement times and fee structures. Active POS terminals serve as a proxy for physical merchants, and we estimate a broader number including online-only SMEs.
- Average Annual Value per SME: This represents the estimated annual revenue opportunity per SME for providers offering faster settlement and transparent pricing. This value is linked to the perceived benefit for SMEs (improved cash flow, reduced cost uncertainty) and the pricing models (e.g., subscription fee, small premium per transaction) providers would implement.
Researched Numbers with Rationale and Sources:
- Active POS Terminals: >400,000. This indicates at least 400,000 physical merchants are equipped for card payments. [Players Analysis]
- Estimated Number of Digitally Accepting SMEs: Based on the POS data and accounting for online merchants, we estimate the number of digitally accepting SMEs in the range of 400,000 to 600,000.
- Estimated Average Annual Value per SME: Based on the significant cash flow pain point and desire for transparency, we estimate SMEs might pay between USD 500 and USD 2,000 annually for services providing real-time/same-day settlement and clear fee structures. This estimate is not directly from the source but reflects the potential value proposition for SMEs. [Current Pains Analysis]
Calculated Potential Addressable Market:
- Formula: Number of Digitally Accepting SMEs * Average Annual Value per SME
- Lower bound: 400,000 * USD 500 = USD 200 million
- Upper bound: 600,000 * USD 2,000 = USD 1.2 billion
- Potential Addressable Market Range: USD 200 million to USD 1.2 billion annually.

3. Affordable AI-Powered Fraud Prevention for SMEs¶

Key Assumptions and Rationale:
- Number of Digitally Accepting SMEs: As with settlement, the market is defined by the number of SMEs exposed to digital payment fraud who need affordable prevention tools.
- Average Annual Cost per SME for Tools: This represents the estimated annual revenue opportunity per SME for providers offering cost-effective AI-powered fraud prevention solutions, likely delivered as a Software-as-a-Service (SaaS). The pricing is assumed to be accessible for smaller businesses, unlike traditional enterprise solutions.
Researched Numbers with Rationale and Sources:
- Estimated Number of Digitally Accepting SMEs: Using the same proxy as above, 400,000 to 600,000. [Players Analysis]
- Estimated Average Annual Cost per SME for Tools: Based on the need for affordable tools, we estimate a potential annual cost per SME ranging from USD 120 (e.g., $10/month) to USD 600 (e.g., $50/month) for SaaS-based fraud prevention services. This estimate is not directly from the source but reflects a potential accessible price point. [Current Pains Analysis]
Calculated Potential Addressable Market:
- Formula: Number of Digitally Accepting SMEs * Average Annual Cost per SME for Tools
- Lower bound: 400,000 * USD 120 = USD 48 million
- Upper bound: 600,000 * USD 600 = USD 360 million
- Potential Addressable Market Range: USD 48 million to USD 360 million annually.

4. Hyper-Personalized Financial Wellness & Management Tools via Open Finance¶

Key Assumptions and Rationale:
- Open Finance Adoption Rate (Consumers and SMEs): This is a future-oriented market dependent on the full implementation and adoption of the Open Finance System (OFS). The market size is based on the number of consumers and SMEs who actively use tools leveraging OFS data (with consent). We assume a percentage of the potential user base will adopt these services once available.
- Average Annual Revenue per User (Consumer and SME): This represents the estimated annual revenue per consumer or SME from providers offering these hyper-personalized tools. Revenue could come from subscriptions, premium features, or commissions on linked financial products.
Researched Numbers with Rationale and Sources:
- Mobile Internet Users (Sept 2024): ~22.8 million. This is the potential pool for consumer users. [Infrastructure & Networks]
- Estimated Number of SMEs: 400,000 to 600,000. This is the potential pool for SME users. [Players Analysis]
- OFS Full Implementation: Anticipated by 2027. [Ongoing Changes Signals Analysis] This indicates the market is nascent in 2024/2025.
- Estimated Open Finance Adoption Rate (Future): We assume that after OFS maturity (e.g., by 2030), 20% to 40% of mobile internet users and 40% to 60% of SMEs will adopt OFS-enabled financial wellness tools.
- Estimated Average Annual Revenue per User: We estimate USD 10 to USD 50 per consumer annually and USD 100 to USD 500 per SME annually, reflecting value from insights, budgeting, forecasting, etc.
Calculated Potential Addressable Market:
- Formula: (Estimated Adopted Consumers * Avg Annual Revenue per Consumer) + (Estimated Adopted SMEs * Avg Annual Revenue per SME)
- Estimated Adopted Consumers: (22.8 million * 20%) to (22.8 million * 40%) = 4.56 million to 9.12 million
- Estimated Adopted SMEs: (400,000 * 40%) to (600,000 * 60%) = 160,000 to 360,000
- Lower bound: (4.56 million * USD 10) + (160,000 * USD 100) = USD 45.6 million + USD 16 million = USD 61.6 million
- Upper bound: (9.12 million * USD 50) + (360,000 * USD 500) = USD 456 million + USD 180 million = USD 636 million
- Potential Addressable Market Range (Future, e.g., 2030): USD 60 million to USD 640 million annually. (Rounded) Note: This is a future potential market size assuming OFS maturity and adoption.

5. Inclusive Digital Onboarding & Financial Literacy Solutions¶

Key Assumptions and Rationale:
- Number of Underserved Individuals/Businesses: The market is defined by individuals (e.g., rural, elderly, migrants, gig workers) and potentially informal micro-businesses that are currently excluded or poorly served by the formal digital financial ecosystem due to onboarding hurdles or lack of digital literacy.
- Average Annual Revenue per Included User: This represents the potential revenue generated by successfully onboarding and enabling digital payment usage among these segments. Revenue could come from transaction fees, fees for basic services, or funding aimed at financial inclusion initiatives.
Researched Numbers with Rationale and Sources:
- Adults with Financial Products: 96%. This implies approximately 4% of adults may be excluded from formal financial products. [Current Pains Analysis]
- Estimated Adult Population (2025): Assuming Chile's population is ~20 million (based on general knowledge), the adult population is estimated to be 15-16 million. This is an external estimate.
- Estimated Excluded Adults: ~4% of 15-16 million adults = 600,000 to 640,000.
- Estimated Underserved (but potentially included) Adults: We estimate an additional 1 million to 2 million adults who are financially included but underserved due to digital literacy or access issues (rural, elderly, etc.).
- Estimated Total Addressable Individuals: Combining excluded and underserved, approximately 0.6 million to 2.6 million individuals. Quantifying underserved micro-businesses is difficult with available data.
- Estimated Average Annual Revenue per Included User: Based on enabling basic digital payment usage and potential access to simple financial products or services, we estimate revenue capture ranging from USD 20 to USD 100 annually per user.
Calculated Potential Addressable Market:
- Formula: Number of Underserved Individuals/Businesses * Average Annual Revenue per Included User
- Lower bound: 600,000 * USD 20 = USD 12 million
- Upper bound: 2.6 million * USD 100 = USD 260 million
- Potential Addressable Market Range: USD 12 million to USD 260 million annually.

6. Comprehensive Cross-Border E-commerce Enablement for SMEs¶

Key Assumptions and Rationale:
- Number of Exporting SMEs: The market is defined by Chilean SMEs involved in or aspiring to engage in cross-border e-commerce by selling products or services to customers located outside of Chile.
- Average Annual Revenue per Exporting SME: This represents the potential annual revenue captured by providers offering integrated services (payment processing, FX conversion, compliance support, etc.) specifically for these exporting SMEs.
Researched Numbers with Rationale and Sources:
- Estimated Number of Digitally Accepting SMEs (Proxy): 400,000 to 600,000. [Players Analysis]
- Estimated Percentage of SMEs Engaging in or Aspiring to Export E-commerce: We assume a portion of digitally active SMEs are relevant for this market, estimating 5% to 10%. This estimate is not directly from the source but reflects a segment potentially looking to expand globally.
- Estimated Number of Exporting SMEs: (400,000 * 5%) to (600,000 * 10%) = 20,000 to 60,000 SMEs.
- Estimated Average Annual Revenue per Exporting SME: Based on providing bundled payment, FX, and potentially related services, we estimate the annual revenue captured per exporting SME to be between USD 500 and USD 5,000, depending on their transaction volume and service adoption. [Current Pains Analysis, Value Chain Analysis - Business Models]
Calculated Potential Addressable Market:
- Formula: Number of Exporting SMEs * Average Annual Revenue per Exporting SME
- Lower bound: 20,000 * USD 500 = USD 10 million
- Upper bound: 60,000 * USD 5,000 = USD 300 million
- Potential Addressable Market Range: USD 10 million to USD 300 million annually.

7. Niche and B2B Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) Applications¶

Key Assumptions and Rationale:
- Estimated Additional Transaction Volume: The market size is based on the value of transactions in consumer niches (beyond current mass-market retail) and within the B2B segment that could be financed using BNPL solutions. This is additive to the existing consumer BNPL market.
- Average Revenue Capture Rate: This represents the percentage of the financed transaction volume that BNPL providers capture as revenue (through merchant fees, interest, or other charges).
Researched Numbers with Rationale and Sources:
- Current Consumer BNPL Market (2024): USD 651 million. This is the base, and the whitespace addresses markets beyond this. [Value Chain Definition]
- Estimated Additional Transaction Volume: We estimate potential BNPL volume in consumer niches (like healthcare, education) and B2B procurement to be in the range of USD 600 million to USD 2.5 billion annually. This estimate is not directly from the source but reflects potential expansion areas. [Current Pains Analysis, Consumption Trends Analysis]
- Estimated Average Revenue Capture Rate: Based on typical BNPL business models, we estimate a revenue capture rate ranging from 3% to 5% of the financed volume, primarily through merchant fees. [Value Chain Analysis - Business Models]
Calculated Potential Addressable Market:
- Formula: Estimated Additional Transaction Volume * Average Revenue Capture Rate
- Lower bound: USD 600 million * 3% = USD 18 million
- Upper bound: USD 2.5 billion * 5% = USD 125 million
- Potential Addressable Market Range: USD 18 million to USD 125 million annually.

8. Interoperable Digital Wallet Ecosystems¶

Key Assumptions and Rationale:
- Potential Wallet Transaction Volume: The market size is based on the total transaction value processed through digital wallets operating within an interoperable ecosystem. Interoperability is expected to drive higher adoption and usage, capturing a larger share of the non-cash retail volume.
- Revenue Share for Interoperability Layer: The value specifically for the interoperability aspect (as opposed to the total revenue captured by individual wallet providers) is assumed to come from a small fee applied to transactions routed via the interoperability layer or standard.
Researched Numbers with Rationale and Sources:
- Wallet Penetration: <10% of retail volume but fastest-growing segment. [Consumption Trends Analysis]
- Estimated Potential Wallet Volume in Interoperable System (Future): Assuming interoperability significantly boosts adoption, wallets could capture 15% to 30% of the estimated total non-cash retail volume (USD 100bn - USD 150bn range from Whitespace 1), resulting in an estimated annual wallet volume of USD 15 billion to USD 45 billion. Let's use a rounded range of USD 20 billion to USD 50 billion.
- Estimated Revenue Share for Interoperability Layer: We estimate a small percentage fee for using the interoperability infrastructure, ranging from 0.05% to 0.1% of the transaction value.
Calculated Potential Addressable Market:
- Formula: Potential Wallet Transaction Volume * Revenue Share for Interoperability Layer
- Lower bound: USD 20 billion * 0.05% = USD 10 million
- Upper bound: USD 50 billion * 0.1% = USD 50 million
- Potential Addressable Market Range (Interoperability Layer Revenue): USD 10 million to USD 50 million annually. Note: This quantifies the revenue for the interoperability infrastructure itself, not the total revenue of participating wallets.

9. Compliance-as-a-Service for Fintechs¶

Key Assumptions and Rationale:
- Number of Active Fintechs: The market size is based on the number of fintech companies operating in Chile that require compliance support, particularly given the new and evolving regulatory landscape (Fintech Law).
- Average Annual Spending per Fintech on Compliance Services: This represents the estimated annual expenditure by fintechs on external services or tools specifically for managing regulatory compliance.
Researched Numbers with Rationale and Sources:
- Active Fintech Startups (2024): 348. [Value Chain Definition]
- Estimated Number of Active Fintechs (2025): Assuming continued growth and the need for compliance under the Fintech Law, we estimate 350 to 500 active fintechs in 2025.
- Estimated Average Annual Spending per Fintech on Compliance Services: Given the extensive secondary regulations (>70 rules mentioned) and ongoing compliance burden, we estimate annual spending per fintech on dedicated compliance services/tools ranging from USD 20,000 to USD 100,000. [Value Chain Report on the Payment Industry in Chile, Current Pains Analysis]
Calculated Potential Addressable Market:
- Formula: Number of Active Fintechs * Average Annual Spending per Fintech on Compliance Services
- Lower bound: 350 * USD 20,000 = USD 7 million
- Upper bound: 500 * USD 100,000 = USD 50 million
- Potential Addressable Market Range: USD 7 million to USD 50 million annually.

10. PISP-Driven Optimized Checkout Experiences¶

Key Assumptions and Rationale:
- Addressable Transaction Volume: The market size is based on the value of transactions, particularly in e-commerce and potentially other retail segments, that could be initiated directly from bank accounts by licensed Payment Initiation Service Providers (PISPs) under the Open Finance framework. This volume is expected to shift from other payment methods, notably cards.
- Average PISP Revenue Capture Rate: This represents the percentage of the transaction value that PISPs capture as revenue, primarily through fees charged to merchants, which are anticipated to be significantly lower than card MDRs.
Researched Numbers with Rationale and Sources:
- E-commerce GMV (2023): USD 34 billion. A key target market for PISPs. [Value Chain Definition]
- PISP Potential Fee Range: 30-50 bps (0.3% - 0.5%). [Value Chain Report on the Payment Industry in Chile, Consumption Trends Analysis]
- Card MDR Avg: ≈2.35% avg.; new entrants pricing < 2 %. [Value Chain Report on the Payment Industry in Chile] The lower PISP fee is a key driver.
- Estimated Addressable Transaction Volume (Initial): Based on the e-commerce market size and the potential to capture a significant share (30-50%) of this, plus potentially some volume from other non-card retail payments (estimated USD 10bn-USD 20bn range as a proxy), we estimate the initial addressable transaction volume for PISPs to be in the range of USD 20 billion to USD 37 billion annually.
- Estimated Average PISP Revenue Capture Rate: Based on the stated potential fee range, we use 0.3% to 0.5%.
Calculated Potential Addressable Market:
- Formula: Addressable Transaction Volume * Average PISP Revenue Capture Rate
- Lower bound: USD 20 billion * 0.3% = USD 60 million
- Upper bound: USD 37 billion * 0.5% = USD 185 million
- Potential Addressable Market Range: USD 60 million to USD 185 million annually.

References¶

APEXX Global. Payment Gateway Chile. https://apexx.global/payment-gateways/latam/chile/
Banco Central de Chile. Payment systems. https://www.bcentral.cl/web/bch/areas-de-accion/mercado-financiero/sistemas-de-pago
Banco Central de Chile. BOX III.1 – Setting Final Limits to Card’s Interchange Fees. https://www.bcentral.cl/documents/33528/1333266/IEF_II_2023_BOX_III_1.pdf
CMF Chile. Regulations on Financial Services Providers in the Fintech Act. https://www.cmfchile.cl/portal/principal/605/w3-article-85488.html
Dock. Ley Fintech in Chile: A promising scenario for the industry and growth towards financial inclusion. https://www.dock.tech/blog/ley-fintech-chile/
Finnovista. What You Need to Know About Chile's Fast-Maturing Fintech Market. https://blog.finnovista.com/en/what-you-need-to-know-about-chiles-fast-maturing-fintech-market
GlobeNewswire. Chile Buy Now Pay Later Business Databook 2025. https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2024/03/05/2839801/0/en/Chile-Buy-Now-Pay-Later-Business-Databook-2025-A-651-Million-Market-in-2024-Expected-to-Reach-871-Million-in-2025-Signaling-Robust-Growth.html
IMF eLibrary. Fintech and Financial Inclusion in Chile. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/CR/Issues/2024/02/05/Fintech-and-Financial-Inclusion-in-Chile-in-544501
Khipu – Open Finance APIs. https://khipu.com/en/
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VIXIO Regulatory Intelligence. Chile Gives Green Light to Cross-Border Card Acquiring. https://vixio.com/news/payments/chile-gives-green-light-to-cross-border-card-acquiring
World Bank. Case Study: Chile – Fast Payments Toolkit. https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/2d52795c371322b0682303079c79344b-0320022021/original/Chile-Fast-Payments-Toolkit-Case-Study.pdf