Banking in Colombia Potential Addressable Market¶

Addressable Market Calculation¶

1. Whitespace: Proactive & Empathetic Debt Management Solutions¶

Key Assumptions and Rationale:
- Assumption 1: Addressable Portfolio Value. The market opportunity is directly related to the value of the loan portfolio segments most affected by rising delinquency and stress. These segments are identified as Consumer, SME (part of Commercial), and Microcredit. Proactive management solutions aim to improve outcomes (reduce losses, improve recovery) for loans that are currently delinquent or at high risk of becoming delinquent.
- Assumption 2: Percentage of Addressable Portfolio. Not all loans in these segments are equally at risk or require proactive management. The whitespace addresses a portion of this relevant portfolio that could benefit from these specialized solutions. This percentage is estimated based on the qualitative description of rising delinquency being a significant challenge.
- Assumption 3: Potential Value Capture. The total addressable market value is not the value of the loans themselves, but the potential revenue generated by providing these solutions (e.g., fees for restructuring, platform usage fees, a portion of recovered funds, reduced provisioning needs). Due to the lack of specific financial data on these potential revenue streams in the provided text, the quantifiable market will be represented as a range of the estimated addressable portfolio value, acknowledging that the actual revenue opportunity is a fraction of this portfolio value.
Formula for Calculating Potential Addressable Market (Represented as Addressable Portfolio Value): Potential Addressable Market (COP) = (Value of Consumer Loan Portfolio + Value of SME Commercial Loan Portfolio + Value of Microcredit Portfolio) * Percentage of Portfolio Requiring/Benefiting from Proactive Management
Researched Numbers with Rationale and Sources:
- Total Credit Portfolio (2025 Projection): The projected total credit portfolio for 2025 is COP 718 trillion. This provides the base for segment values. [Context]
- Composition of Commercial Banking Credit (as of Nov 2024): Consumer loans represent 30% of the total credit portfolio, Microcredit is 8%, and Commercial loans are 46%, with 7% directed towards SMEs. [Context]
- Value of Consumer Loan Portfolio: 30% of COP 718 trillion = COP 215.4 trillion. (Using 2025 projection as a forward-looking base).
- Value of SME Commercial Loan Portfolio: 7% of COP 718 trillion = COP 50.26 trillion.
- Value of Microcredit Portfolio: 8% of COP 718 trillion = COP 57.44 trillion.
- Relevant Portfolio Value: COP 215.4 trillion (Consumer) + COP 50.26 trillion (SME Commercial) + COP 57.44 trillion (Microcredit) = COP 323.1 trillion.
- Percentage of Portfolio Requiring/Benetiting from Proactive Management: The text indicates "rising delinquency rates," "significant stress," and customers "drowning in debt." This suggests a substantial portion of these portfolios is affected or at risk. A reasonable range for the portion that could benefit from proactive, empathetic solutions is 10% to 30% of the relevant portfolio. This includes currently non-performing loans and a significant portion of loans that could be proactively managed to prevent delinquency.
Calculated Potential Addressable Market (as Addressable Portfolio Value with Defined Ranges):
- Lower Bound: COP 323.1 trillion * 10% = COP 32.31 trillion.
- Upper Bound: COP 323.1 trillion * 30% = COP 96.93 trillion.
The potential addressable market, framed as the value of the loan portfolio segments that could benefit from proactive and empathetic debt management solutions, is estimated to be in the range of COP 32.3 trillion to COP 96.9 trillion. The actual revenue opportunity derived from providing these services would be a fraction of this value, generated through fees or improved recovery rates.

2. Whitespace: Hyper-Inclusive Digital Onboarding & Micro-Finance¶

Key Assumptions and Rationale:
- Assumption 1: Number of Unbanked/Underbanked Adults. The market is primarily defined by the significant portion of the adult population currently excluded from formal financial services.
- Assumption 2: Addressability by Digital/Micro Solutions. Not all unbanked/underbanked individuals may be reachable or willing to adopt digital/micro-finance solutions. This assumption estimates the percentage of this group that could potentially be onboarded and served by these offerings, considering factors like mobile penetration and basic digital literacy potential.
- Assumption 3: Potential Value per User. Once onboarded, these users represent potential for micro-deposits, micro-loans, and basic digital service usage (e.g., payments, remittances). Due to the lack of data on potential revenue or transaction volumes per user for this specific whitespace in the provided text, the quantifiable market will be represented as the number of people in the addressable segment, with the understanding that revenue would be generated through interest spread on micro-finance activities and fees for services.
Formula for Calculating Potential Addressable Market (Represented as Number of People): Potential Addressable Market (Number of People) = Number of Unbanked/Underbanked Adults * Addressability Rate by Digital/Micro Solutions
Researched Numbers with Rationale and Sources:
- Percentage of Unbanked/Underbanked Adults: Approximately 40% of adults in Colombia are unbanked or underbanked. [Context]
- Total Adult Population in Colombia: This number is not directly provided in the text. Therefore, I cannot calculate the absolute number of unbanked/underbanked adults based solely on the provided information. I must simplify the assumption and address the market based on the given percentage and qualitative scale indicators.
- Scale Indicator (Daviplata Users): Daviplata, a digital platform targeting a similar demographic for inclusion, reached 18.5 million users by the end of 2024. [Context] While not all are necessarily from the initially unbanked group, it indicates a large population segment is willing to use digital financial tools.
- Addressability Rate by Digital/Micro Solutions: Given the success of platforms like Daviplata and efforts by SEDPEs and Fintechs targeting this space, a significant portion of the unbanked/underbanked population is addressable. Let's estimate that 50% to 80% of the unbanked/underbanked population could potentially be reached and effectively served by hyper-inclusive digital onboarding and micro-finance solutions within a reasonable timeframe, overcoming current barriers.
Calculated Potential Addressable Market (as Number of People with Defined Ranges):
- Due to the lack of total adult population data, the market size is framed as reaching a percentage of the unbanked/underbanked segment, whose total size is known as a percentage but not an absolute number from the text.
- Based on the 40% unbanked/underbanked rate and an estimated 50-80% addressability within that group: The potential addressable market is reaching 50% to 80% of the ~40% of Colombian adults who are unbanked or underbanked. This represents a substantial number of individuals, likely in the multi-millions, given the scale indicated by platforms like Daviplata (18.5M users).
The potential addressable market for hyper-inclusive digital onboarding and micro-finance is a significant portion of the unbanked and underbanked population, estimated to be reachable for 50% to 80% of the ~40% of Colombian adults currently lacking full financial inclusion. The revenue potential lies in the volume of micro-transactions, small interest margins on micro-loans, and fees for basic services for this large user base.

3. Whitespace: Agile & Affordable SME/Micro-Enterprise Financing¶

Key Assumptions and Rationale:
- Assumption 1: Addressable Portfolio Value. The market opportunity relates to the value of the loan portfolios directed towards SMEs and micro-enterprises, which currently face challenges with cost, speed, and collateral requirements. Innovative solutions aim to better serve this existing market and potentially unlock new lending opportunities.
- Assumption 2: Percentage of Addressable Portfolio. A portion of the existing SME and Microcredit portfolios could potentially shift to or be better served by agile and affordable financing solutions. This percentage reflects the perceived gap and the potential for new products to capture market share or expand the market.
- Assumption 3: Potential Value Capture. Similar to debt management, the TAM is not the loan value but revenue from interest, fees, or platform usage. Given data limitations, the market is represented as a range of the estimated addressable portfolio value.
Formula for Calculating Potential Addressable Market (Represented as Addressable Portfolio Value): Potential Addressable Market (COP) = (Value of SME Commercial Loan Portfolio + Value of Microcredit Portfolio) * Percentage Addressable by Innovative Solutions
Researched Numbers with Rationale and Sources:
- Total Credit Portfolio (2025 Projection): COP 718 trillion. [Context]
- Composition of Commercial Banking Credit (as of Nov 2024): SME commercial loans are 7% of the total credit portfolio, and Microcredit is 8%. [Context]
- Value of SME Commercial Loan Portfolio: 7% of COP 718 trillion = COP 50.26 trillion.
- Value of Microcredit Portfolio: 8% of COP 718 trillion = COP 57.44 trillion.
- Relevant Portfolio Value: COP 50.26 trillion (SME Commercial) + COP 57.44 trillion (Microcredit) = COP 107.7 trillion.
- Scale Indicator (Microenterprises): There are 1.7 million microenterprises, indicating a large number of potential customers beyond the current portfolio value. [Context] However, quantifying the TAM based on the number of businesses without average loan value data from the text is not feasible in COP. We will use the portfolio value as the primary quantifiable base from the text.
- Percentage Addressable by Innovative Solutions: The text highlights "High borrowing cost," "collateral requirements exclude asset-light businesses," and "Slow appraisal times" as pains. Innovative solutions directly address these. A significant portion of the existing market faces these issues and could adopt better alternatives. A range of 20% to 50% of this combined portfolio value could represent the addressable market for these new, more agile, and potentially more affordable solutions.
Calculated Potential Addressable Market (as Addressable Portfolio Value with Defined Ranges):
- Lower Bound: COP 107.7 trillion * 20% = COP 21.54 trillion.
- Upper Bound: COP 107.7 trillion * 50% = COP 53.85 trillion.
The potential addressable market for agile and affordable SME/Micro-Enterprise financing, framed as the value of the loan portfolio segments that could shift to or be better served by innovative solutions, is estimated to be in the range of COP 21.5 trillion to COP 53.9 trillion. This whitespace also has the potential to expand the market by financing a larger portion of the 1.7 million microenterprises.

4. Whitespace: Unified & Personalized Omnichannel Banking¶

Key Assumptions and Rationale:
- Assumption 1: Number of Bank Customers. The market consists of existing bank customers, particularly those who interact through multiple channels (omnichannel users).
- Assumption 2: Percentage of Multi-Channel Users. A significant portion of the customer base, especially mass-affluent and SMEs, uses a combination of digital (web, mobile) and physical (branch, call center) channels.
- Assumption 3: Potential Value per Customer. The value of this whitespace comes from improving customer experience, leading to higher retention, increased cross-selling of products (loans, investments, services), and potential operational efficiency gains. Quantifying this value in COP from the text is not possible. The quantifiable market will be represented by the number of customers who are potential omnichannel users that could benefit from a unified and personalized experience.
Formula for Calculating Potential Addressable Market (Represented as Number of Customers): Potential Addressable Market (Number of Customers) = Number of Bank Customers (Estimate based on major players) * Percentage of Multi-Channel Users
Researched Numbers with Rationale and Sources:
- Customer Base of Major Banks: Bancolombia serves >30 million customers, and Davivienda serves ~24 million clients. [Context] These numbers include individuals and likely some small businesses. Grupo Aval banks also have a massive collective customer base. While we cannot get a single, unduplicated total for the entire banking system from the text, these figures indicate the immense scale of the customer base. Let's conservatively estimate the addressable base as the sum of the largest two banks, acknowledging significant overlap.
- Estimated Addressable Customer Base (Individuals & Businesses): Using Bancolombia and Davivienda as indicators of scale, the addressable base is at least in the range of 30 million to 50 million customers, considering overlap and other banks.
- Percentage of Multi-Channel Users: The description targets "Mass-affluent and SME customers that combine complex products... with daily digital banking" and notes "Digital-first banking becomes mainstream." This implies a high adoption of multiple channels among many customer segments. A reasonable estimate for the percentage of these customers who are multi-channel users is 60% to 80%.
Calculated Potential Addressable Market (as Number of Customers with Defined Ranges):
- Lower Bound (using lower customer estimate and lower multi-channel %): 30 million * 60% = 18 million customers.
- Upper Bound (using higher customer estimate and higher multi-channel %): 50 million * 80% = 40 million customers.
The potential addressable market for unified and personalized omnichannel banking is estimated to reach 18 million to 40 million bank customers who currently interact through multiple channels. The value of this market lies in enhanced customer loyalty, increased product adoption, and operational efficiencies gained by providing seamless and personalized experiences.

5. Whitespace: Trust-Centric Digital Banking for Vulnerable Users¶

Key Assumptions and Rationale:
- Assumption 1: Number of Vulnerable Digital Users. The market consists of individuals who are either unbanked/underbanked with limited digital literacy or significant trust/security concerns, or existing banked users who are hesitant to fully adopt digital channels due to these barriers. Quantifying the exact size of this overlapping group is difficult based solely on the provided text.
- Assumption 2: Addressability by Trust-Centric Solutions. A portion of these vulnerable users could be encouraged to adopt or increase their use of digital banking if trust and literacy barriers are specifically addressed through the proposed solutions.
- Assumption 3: Potential Value per User. Once successfully engaged digitally, these users represent potential for basic digital banking revenue (micro-deposits, payments, etc.), similar to the inclusion whitespace. The quantifiable market is represented by the number of people who are potential users of these trust-centric digital solutions.
Formula for Calculating Potential Addressable Market (Represented as Number of People): Potential Addressable Market (Number of People) = Estimated Number of Adults Facing Digital Trust/Literacy Barriers * Addressability Rate by Trust-Centric Solutions
Researched Numbers with Rationale and Sources:
- Percentage of Unbanked/Underbanked Adults: Approximately 40% of adults are unbanked or underbanked. [Context] This group significantly overlaps with vulnerable users.
- Scale Indicator (Daviplata Users): Daviplata reached 18.5 million users, demonstrating a large segment can be reached digitally, but the whitespace targets those who are not yet comfortable or able to use such platforms due to trust/literacy issues. [Context]
- Qualitative Description: "Uneven digital access, literacy and cyber-security concerns" and "New digital adopters (senior citizens, rural youth), Daviplata-type wallet users, and SMEs adopting online banking" are mentioned as affected. "Rising social-engineering attacks; customers feel unsupported post-fraud" are pains.
- Estimated Number of Adults Facing Digital Trust/Literacy Barriers: Based on the 40% unbanked/underbanked figure and the qualitative description of concerns affecting various groups (including potentially banked but digitally hesitant), this segment likely represents a significant portion of the adult population. Let's estimate that 20% to 40% of the total adult population faces substantial digital trust or literacy barriers in the context of banking. (Total adult population size is not in the text, but the percentage provides a scale indication relative to the total population).
- Addressability Rate by Trust-Centric Solutions: The proposed solutions (low-bandwidth, biometric, education, support) directly target these barriers. A significant portion of this segment could potentially be onboarded or become more active digital users if these solutions are effective. Let's estimate an addressability rate of 50% to 80% within this vulnerable segment.
Calculated Potential Addressable Market (as Number of People with Defined Ranges):
- Due to the lack of total adult population data, the market size is framed as reaching a percentage of the estimated vulnerable segment.
- Based on an estimated 20-40% of adults facing barriers and a 50-80% addressability within that group: The potential addressable market is reaching 50% to 80% of the estimated 20% to 40% of Colombian adults facing digital trust or literacy barriers in banking. This represents a large number of individuals who could be brought into or become more active in digital banking through these tailored solutions.
The potential addressable market for trust-centric digital banking for vulnerable users is a substantial number of individuals, estimated to be reachable for 50% to 80% of the 20% to 40% of Colombian adults currently facing significant digital trust or literacy barriers in banking. The value comes from expanding the digital user base and increasing transaction volumes among this segment.

6. Whitespace: Innovative Real-Time Payment Solutions & Services¶

Key Assumptions and Rationale:
- Assumption 1: Widespread Adoption of Real-Time Payments. The launch of Bre-B is expected to enable instant payments across institutions. The market assumes a high adoption rate of this capability for various transactions.
- Assumption 2: Potential for Value-Added Services. The primary market opportunity lies in building new products and services on top of the real-time payment infrastructure, rather than just the underlying payment value. These services generate revenue through fees, improved cash management efficiency for businesses, and new consumer functionalities.
- Assumption 3: Addressable Transaction Volume/Users. The market is the potential volume of transactions that will move to real-time and the number of users and businesses who will adopt associated services. Quantifying total payment volume or the exact number of addressable businesses from the text is not possible.
Formula for Calculating Potential Addressable Market: Quantification in COP based solely on provided text is not feasible as data on total payment volume or specific service revenue potential is missing. The market size is best described by its reach and the nature of the opportunity.
Researched Numbers with Rationale and Sources:
- Bre-B Launch: The interoperable fast-payment system, Bre-B, launches country-wide in May 2025, enabling 24/7, sub-10-second transfers. [Context]
- Impact on Value Chain: Expected impacts on Captación (immediate credit), Gestión de Tesorería (liquidity), and Specialized Services (cash-management, settlement). [Context]
- Scale Indicator (Digital Payments): Daviplata reached 18.5 million users, and cashless payments are surging. [Context] This indicates a large base of potential users for real-time services.
Calculated Potential Addressable Market: Quantification in a single COP number is not possible with the provided data.

The potential addressable market for innovative real-time payment solutions and services is vast, encompassing virtually all digital transactions in Colombia (consumer, business, interbank) and impacting a large number of digital banking users (multi-millions, building on bases like Daviplata's 18.5M) and businesses. The market value will be generated through transaction fees on the Bre-B rail (potentially low), but primarily through fees and value captured by value-added services built on real-time data and instant settlement (e.g., real-time treasury, instant P2M/P2P services, integrated payment solutions).

7. Whitespace: Value-Added Digital Payment Ecosystems¶

Key Assumptions and Rationale:
- Assumption 1: Adoption of Digital Payments. The market relies on the continued shift towards cashless payments and the use of digital wallets/platforms by consumers and merchants.
- Assumption 2: Demand for Value-Added Services. Merchants and consumers require services beyond basic payment processing, such as analytics, loyalty programs, and integrated financial tools.
- Assumption 3: Potential Revenue from Services. The market value comes from fees for merchant services (acquiring, analytics), data monetization (anonymized), and potentially embedded finance products. Quantifying this value in COP from the text is not possible. The quantifiable market is represented by the number of potential users and merchants for these ecosystem services.
Formula for Calculating Potential Addressable Market: Quantification in COP based solely on provided text is not feasible as data on merchant numbers, payment volumes, or specific service revenue potential is missing. The market size is best described by its reach and the nature of the opportunity.
Researched Numbers with Rationale and Sources:
- Shift to Cashless Payments: Cash usage declines, digital payments surge. [Context]
- Scale Indicator (Digital Consumers): Daviplata reached 18.5 million users. [Context] Many other bank customers also use digital payments. Let's estimate the base of active digital banking users is larger, potentially 25 million to 35 million.
- Affected Segments: Merchants and consumers are the primary focus.
- Demand Signals: Merchants need more than just payment acceptance; consumers expect integrated experiences.
Calculated Potential Addressable Market: Quantification in a single COP number is not possible with the provided data.

The potential addressable market for value-added digital payment ecosystems involves a large base of digital banking users (estimated 25 million to 35 million) and a significant, but unquantified in the text, number of merchants (from micro to large). The market value is derived from providing integrated services like merchant analytics, loyalty programs, and embedded finance within payment flows, generating revenue through fees, data services, and increased transaction volumes.

8. Whitespace: Mainstream Sustainable Finance Products & Advisory¶

Key Assumptions and Rationale:
- Assumption 1: Addressable Loan and Investment Market. A portion of the total credit portfolio and the broader investment market is addressable for "green" or "sustainable" classification and related products.
- Assumption 2: Adoption Rate of Sustainable Products. Not all of the addressable market will immediately adopt sustainable finance products. This assumption estimates the percentage of the addressable market value that could realistically shift to or be captured by mainstream sustainable finance offerings within a reasonable timeframe.
- Assumption 3: Potential Value Capture. The market value is primarily derived from the size of the sustainable loan and investment portfolios. Revenue is generated through interest margins (potentially slightly different for green loans), fees on ESG investment funds, and advisory service fees. Given data limitations, the quantifiable market will be represented as a range of the estimated addressable portfolio value.
Formula for Calculating Potential Addressable Market (Represented as Addressable Portfolio Value): Potential Addressable Market (COP) = (Total Credit Portfolio) * Percentage Addressable for Sustainable Loans + (Total Investment Market) * Percentage Addressable for ESG Investments
Researched Numbers with Rationale and Sources:
- Total Credit Portfolio (2025 Projection): COP 718 trillion. [Context]
- Scale Indicator (Existing Sustainable Portfolio): Davivienda's sustainable loan portfolio reached COP 24.7 trillion by the end of 2024. [Context] This confirms an existing market.
- Total Investment Market in Colombia: This figure is not provided in the text. Therefore, I cannot quantify the investment market portion of the sustainable finance whitespace based solely on the provided information. I must focus on the loan portfolio.
- Percentage Addressable for Sustainable Loans: Based on the growing global and local focus on ESG and the existence of significant sustainable portfolios already, there is potential for a substantial portion of the total loan market to adopt sustainable criteria or be dedicated to green projects over time. A range of 10% to 30% of the total credit portfolio is a reasonable estimate for the potential long-term size of the sustainable loan market.
Calculated Potential Addressable Market (as Addressable Loan Portfolio Value with Defined Ranges):
- Lower Bound: COP 718 trillion * 10% = COP 71.8 trillion.
- Upper Bound: COP 718 trillion * 30% = COP 215.4 trillion.
The potential addressable market for mainstream sustainable finance products, framed as the potential value of the sustainable loan portfolio in Colombia, is estimated to be in the range of COP 71.8 trillion to COP 215.4 trillion. This represents the potential scale of lending directed towards sustainable activities and projects. The whitespace also includes potential revenue from ESG investment products and advisory services, which are not quantifiable with the provided data but represent additional market value.

References¶

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Banco Davivienda S.A. fourth quarter 2024 results / 4q24. https://www.davivienda.com/file/contents/davivienda_fourth_quarter_2024_results.pdf
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UNSGSA. Queen Máxima visit supports a financially healthy future for Colombians. https://www.unsgsa.org/news/unsgsa-queen-maxima-visit-supports-financially-healthy-future-colombians