Energy in Colombia Current Behavior Changes Analysis¶
Ongoing Behavior Changes¶
Based on the analysis of the provided reports, several ongoing behavior changes among final customers and within the broader energy ecosystem are impacting relationships and demand dynamics in the Colombian energy value chain during 2024 and 2025.
A significant behavior change identified pertains to Large Commercial and Industrial Users operating within the non-regulated market. These Business-to-Business (B2B) customers are increasingly exercising their ability to negotiate energy supply contracts directly with commercialization companies. This behavior frequently leads to the establishment of long-term Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) for electricity and tailored gas supply agreements. This indicates a shift away from a sole reliance on volatile spot market prices (Wholesale Energy Market - MEM) towards securing price stability, predictability, and potentially tailored energy solutions that meet their specific operational needs and risk management strategies.
Conversely, the behavior of Residential Users and Small Commercial Users in certain regions, particularly the Caribbean coast served by companies like Air-e and Afinia (an EPM subsidiary), presents a different challenge. High levels of non-technical losses, stemming from behaviors such as electricity theft, meter tampering, and billing fraud, significantly impact the distribution and commercialization segments. While the reports do not explicitly detail changes in the rate of these behaviors, their continued prevalence is highlighted as a major challenge, indicating persistent behaviors that strain the financial health of distribution companies and contribute to higher costs for compliant regulated customers. This behavior reflects complex socioeconomic factors and challenges in the relationship between utilities and certain customer segments.
Although not strictly a customer-driven demand behavior change in all instances, the significant industry-wide push towards renewable energy and the integration of non-conventional renewable sources like solar and wind, as evidenced by investments and project acquisitions by players like Celsia and Ecopetrol's energy transition initiatives, will inherently influence the energy mix available to customers. While specific data on customer preference shifts is not provided, the increasing availability of renewable energy in the supply will likely influence the choices and contracting behaviors of non-regulated customers seeking greener energy options or potentially impact the overall energy cost structure for regulated users over time as the generation mix evolves.
Furthermore, societal and community behavior, specifically opposition to new infrastructure projects such as pipelines, transmission lines, and even renewable energy farms, represents a critical external behavior impacting the value chain. These behaviors, often driven by environmental concerns and demands for social license to operate, cause significant delays and increase costs for developers across the Exploration & Production, Midstream, Transmission, and Generation segments. While not directly changing energy consumption behavior, this impacts the supply side of the value chain, affecting the timely development of resources and infrastructure needed to meet future demand and potentially influencing the reliability and cost of energy delivered to all customer segments.
In summary, key ongoing behavior changes impacting the value chain include large B2B customers seeking price certainty through direct contracts, persistent non-technical losses affecting distribution and regulated customers in certain areas, the evolving energy supply mix driven by renewable integration, and community opposition impacting infrastructure development.
| Value Chain Stage | Impact of Ongoing Behavior Changes |
|---|---|
| Exploration & Production | Impacted by societal opposition, potentially limiting access to new reserves and increasing project costs and delays. Long-term hydrocarbon demand potentially influenced by energy transition trends. |
| Midstream (Hydrocarbons) | Faces challenges from infrastructure security threats and potentially reduced long-term transport demand if hydrocarbon production declines or energy transition accelerates. Affected by societal opposition delaying new pipeline projects. |
| Transmission (Electricity) | Significantly impacted by delays in infrastructure development due to social/environmental opposition, creating bottlenecks for evacuating new generation capacity, particularly renewables. Requires modernization to integrate variable renewable sources, impacting operational complexity. |
| Downstream (Hydrocarbons) | Long-term demand for refined products could be influenced by the energy transition and potential shifts towards electric mobility or other cleaner energy sources. |
| Generation (Electricity) | Benefits from increased demand for long-term contracts (PPAs) from large B2B users, providing revenue stability for new projects, especially renewables. Faces challenges in integrating variable renewables due to transmission constraints. |
| Distribution (Energy) | Heavily impacted by non-technical losses in certain regions, leading to financial strain, need for infrastructure investment, and challenging customer relationships. Requires adaptation to manage distributed generation from renewables. |
| Commercialization (Energy) | Experiences a shift in relationships with large B2B customers towards direct negotiation and long-term contracts. Faces operational and financial challenges in serving regulated customers in areas with high non-technical losses. Needs to adapt service offerings to include new energy sources like renewables. |
References¶
Energy Analytics Institute (EAI). reporte-4t23-ecopetrol-eng. (2024-03-01). https://energy-analytics-institute.org/reporte-4t23-ecopetrol-eng/ LaNota.com. Ranking 2024 sector energía eléctrica de Colombia. (2024-12-05). https://lanota.com/ranking/Ranking-sector-energia-electrica-Colombia.php GlobalData. Celsia SA ESP Company Profile. https://www.globaldata.com/company-profile/celsia-sa-esp/ Infobae. Ahora EPM es la segunda después de Ecopetrol: así quedó el ranking de las empresas con mayores ingresos en Colombia. (2024-03-26). https://www.infobae.com/colombia/2024/03/26/ahora-epm-es-la-segunda-despues-de-ecopetrol-asi-quedo-el-ranking-de-las-empresas-con-mayores-ingresos-en-colombia/ Las2orillas.co. Los 4 grandes que más han ganado con la energía eléctrica en Colombia. (2022-09-19). https://www.las2orillas.co/los-4-grandes-que-mas-han-ganado-con-la-energia-electrica-en-colombia/ Stock Analysis. Organización Terpel S.A. (BVC:TERPEL) Stock Price & Overview. https://stockanalysis.com/bvc/terpel/ ColombiaOne.com. Top Ten Largest Companies in Colombia. (2024-01-20). https://colombiaone.com/top-ten-largest-companies-in-colombia/ Investing.com. Celsia SA (BVC:CELSIA) Revenue. https://www.investing.com/equities/celsia-revenue Macrotrends. Ecopetrol S.A Revenue 2010-2024 | EC. https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/EC/ecopetrol-s.a/revenue LaNota.com. Ranking 2022 sector energía eléctrica de Colombia. (2023-10-18). https://lanota.com/ranking/Ranking-sector-energia-electrica-Colombia-2022.php Stock Analysis. Organización Terpel (BVC:TERPEL) Revenue. https://stockanalysis.com/bvc/terpel/revenue/