Skip to content

Airlines in Mexico Future Trends Analysis

Based on the analysis of the Mexican airline industry value chain and associated reports for 2024-2025, several key trends are expected to shape the near future of the sector. These trends, driven by market dynamics, technological advancements, operational challenges, and regulatory factors, will have a significant impact across various steps of the value chain.

  1. Sustained Growth in Passenger Traffic, Led by the ULCC Model: The trend of robust passenger growth, notably exceeding 119 million passengers in Mexican airports in 2024, is projected to continue in the near future. This growth is predominantly fueled by the strong performance and expansion of Ultra-Low-Cost Carriers (ULCCs) like Viva Aerobus and Volaris, which have captured significant domestic market share (38.0% for Viva Aerobus and 33.3% for Volaris in 2024). This trend emphasizes the ongoing demand for affordable air travel and the effectiveness of the ULCC business model in stimulating the market.

  2. Continued Strain on Infrastructure and Air Traffic Management: A critical and persistent trend is the pressure on airport capacity, particularly at Mexico City International Airport (AICM), which operates above its design limits. The introduction of a multi-airport system in the Mexico City metropolitan area, while intended to alleviate congestion, adds complexity to air traffic management. Compounding this is the severe shortage of air traffic controllers within SENEAM, estimated at 500 needed positions in late 2024. This ongoing infrastructure and workforce deficit will likely continue to cause operational delays and limit growth potential, despite rising passenger numbers.

  3. Impact of Global Supply Chain Issues on Fleet Availability and MRO: The Mexican airline industry will continue to feel the effects of global aerospace supply chain disruptions in the near future. This includes delays in the delivery of new aircraft from manufacturers like Boeing and Airbus and shortages of spare parts required for Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul (MRO) activities. These issues can lead to extended ground times for aircraft undergoing maintenance, impacting fleet utilization, operational costs, and airlines' capacity to expand or replace older, less fuel-efficient planes. The Mexican MRO market, valued at USD 945.4 million in 2023 and projected to grow, will be directly influenced by the availability of parts and the demand generated by airline fleet needs.

  4. Deepening of Strategic Alliances and Partnerships: Airlines are expected to continue leveraging strategic alliances and commercial partnerships to enhance their networks and market reach. The successful joint cooperation agreement between Aeroméxico and Delta Air Lines is a prime example, enabling coordinated operations and revenue sharing on transborder routes. While the proposed Viva Aerobus and Allegiant Air alliance faced regulatory hurdles, the intent highlights the strategic importance of such agreements for market expansion, particularly in the crucial US-Mexico market. This trend will influence route development, pricing strategies, and customer loyalty programs.

  5. Increasing Significance of Ancillary Revenues: Following the lead of ULCCs, which heavily rely on non-ticket revenues (often exceeding 50% of total revenue for some), the focus on ancillary services is expected to intensify across the industry. This trend involves airlines offering and promoting a wider range of optional products and services, from baggage and seat selection to in-flight Wi-Fi and travel insurance, to boost profitability in a competitive fare environment. Investment in digital platforms and customer data analytics will be crucial to optimize ancillary sales.

  6. Evolving Regulatory Landscape and State Involvement: The Mexican government's role in the airline sector, including the operation of Mexicana de Aviación and control over key infrastructure like ATC and major airports (via GACM and indirectly through concession regulations for GAP, ASUR, OMA), signifies ongoing state influence. Future regulatory decisions concerning airport capacity allocation, air navigation services funding, and bilateral air service agreements (especially with the US following the restoration of Category 1 safety rating) will be critical trends shaping the competitive and operational environment.

  7. Technological Adoption for Efficiency and Customer Experience: Expect a continued trend towards adopting digital technologies across the value chain. This includes airlines investing in advanced revenue management systems, optimizing online and mobile booking platforms for direct sales and ancillary services, and potentially exploring technologies for more efficient ground handling and MRO operations. Enhancing the digital customer journey from booking to post-flight services will be a key focus.

Main Trend Potential Impact on Value Chain Step(s) Specific Effects Opportunities Created Threats Posed
Sustained Growth in Passenger Traffic, Led by ULCCs Airline Operations, Distribution & Sales, Infrastructure (Airport Operations, ATC), Support Services Increased demand for flights, pressure on existing infrastructure, higher volumes for ground handling and catering, continued intense price competition in domestic market. Opportunity for airlines to expand routes and frequencies (where capacity allows), increased revenue for airport operators (passenger fees), higher demand for support services. Exacerbation of infrastructure bottlenecks, potential for reduced yields (revenue per passenger) due to low-fare competition, increased operational complexity due to higher traffic density.
Continued Strain on Infrastructure and Air Traffic Management Infrastructure (Airport Operations, ATC), Airline Operations, Support Services Increased delays and reduced punctuality, limitations on airline growth at constrained airports (especially AICM), higher workload and potential safety concerns for ATC, operational inefficiencies for airlines. Potential for investment in alternative airports or regional hubs, demand for technology solutions to improve ATC efficiency and airspace management, opportunities for specialized consulting on airport operations and traffic flow optimization. Severe constraints on airline expansion, increased operating costs due to delays and longer flight paths, potential for regulatory intervention to manage traffic, safety risks associated with controller shortages and system strain.
Impact of Global Supply Chain Issues on Fleet Availability and MRO Aircraft & Fleet Management, Airline Operations, Support Services (MRO) Delays in receiving new aircraft, increased aircraft downtime for maintenance and repairs, higher costs for spare parts and MRO services, challenges in fleet modernization. Opportunities for MRO providers with efficient operations and strong parts sourcing capabilities, potential for airlines or third parties to invest in localized spare parts inventories, demand for innovative maintenance solutions. Reduced airline capacity and operational flexibility, increased maintenance costs impacting profitability, potential for older aircraft to remain in service longer (environmental and efficiency concerns), reliance on global market conditions for parts and aircraft.
Deepening of Strategic Alliances and Partnerships Airline Operations, Distribution & Sales, Customer Experience Expanded route networks and connectivity, seamless transfers for passengers, coordinated pricing and scheduling, enhanced loyalty programs, increased competition on international routes. Opportunities for joint marketing and sales initiatives, development of integrated IT systems for booking and operations, potential for joint procurement or shared resources, growth in international passenger traffic. Complexity in managing multiple airline systems and procedures, potential for cannibalization of routes, regulatory challenges in obtaining approvals for deep commercial integration, dependence on partner performance and financial health.
Increasing Significance of Ancillary Revenues Airline Operations, Distribution & Sales, Customer Experience Development of new ancillary products, greater focus on direct sales channels (websites, apps), sophisticated pricing and personalization strategies, potential for customer segmentation and targeted offers. Opportunities for technology providers specializing in e-commerce and personalization platforms, partnerships with third-party service providers (insurance, car rentals, hotels), increased revenue streams for airlines, enhanced customer data collection and analysis. Risk of customer backlash if ancillary fees are perceived as excessive or opaque, complexity in managing multiple revenue streams, need for continuous innovation to stay ahead of competitors in ancillary offerings.
Evolving Regulatory Landscape and State Involvement Infrastructure (Airport Operations, ATC, Fuel Supply), Airline Operations, Aircraft & Fleet Management Changes in airport capacity allocation, potential for new or modified air service agreements, state-backed competition (Mexicana), influence on fuel pricing and supply, impact on foreign airline operations and partnerships. Opportunities for private sector involvement in areas where state entities seek partnerships or external expertise, potential for growth if regulations facilitate market expansion (e.g., new routes), demand for legal and regulatory compliance services. Uncertainty and potential instability in the operating environment, risk of policy decisions that may not prioritize commercial efficiency, potential for unfair competition from state-backed entities, complexity in navigating regulatory requirements.
Technological Adoption for Efficiency and Customer Experience All steps in the Value Chain (Airline Operations, Distribution & Sales, Support Services, MRO) Investment in digital platforms, automation of processes (check-in, baggage), data analytics for revenue management and customer insights, adoption of new MRO technologies (predictive maintenance), enhanced cybersecurity needs. Opportunities for technology vendors and service providers, improved operational efficiency and cost reduction, enhanced customer satisfaction and loyalty, development of new digital products and services, data-driven decision-making. High initial investment costs, need for skilled workforce to manage new technologies, integration challenges with legacy systems, cybersecurity risks, rapid pace of technological change requiring continuous adaptation.

References

  • Airports – Proyectos México. https://www.proyectosmexico.gob.mx/en/invest-in-mexico/tourism/airports/
  • ALTA presents Mexico Aviation Insight. https://alta.aero/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Mexico-Aviation-Insight-ENG.pdf
  • Air Distribution Simplified | NDC - CWT. https://www.mycwt.com/ch/en/insights/air-distribution-simplified-ndc/
  • Air Lease Corporation Confirms New Lease Agreements with Aeromexico for Nine New Boeing 737 Aircraft. https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20221114005950/en/Air-Lease-Corporation-Confirms-New-Lease-Agreements-with-Aeromexico-for-Nine-New-Boeing-737-Aircraft
  • APG Network - Home. https://www.apg-ga.com/
  • Best Airlines in the World in 2024 Based on On-Time Performance - Aviation A2Z. https://aviationa2z.com/index.php/2023/12/16/best-airlines-in-the-world-in-2024-based-on-on-time-performance/
  • Cheap Mexican airlines reviewed - Earth Vagabonds. https://earthvagabonds.com/cheap-mexican-airlines-reviewed/
  • CDB Aviation and Volaris Agree to Sale and Leaseback of Four New A320neo Aircraft. https://www.cdbaviation.aero/2024/01/cdb-aviation-and-volaris-agree-to-sale-and-leaseback-of-four-new-a320neo-aircraft/
  • Customers - Air Lease Corporation. https://www.airleasecorp.com/customers
  • Driving growth with airline ancillaries - Mastercard Data & Services. https://www.mastercardservices.com/en/insights/driving-growth-with-airline-ancillaries
  • Empresas aéreas en México ganaron más de 34 mil mdp en 2024 - El Financiero. https://www.elfinanciero.com.mx/empresas/2024/04/25/empresas-aereas-en-mexico-ganaron-mas-de-34-mil-mdp-en-2024/
  • Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V. reporta resultados del segundo trimestre y seis meses terminados el 30 de junio de 2024 - Marketscreener. https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/GRUPO-AEROMEXICO-S-A-B-23818780/news/Grupo-Aeromexico-S-A-B-de-C-V-reporta-resultados-del-segundo-trimestre-y-seis-meses-terminados-el-30-de-47354605/
  • Información Financiera Trimestral - investor cloud. https://volaris.gcs-web.com/investor-relations/financial-information/quarterly-results
  • LATAM Airlines cerró 2024 con 82 millones de pasajeros transportados y el doble de utilidades que en 2023 | AméricaEconomía. https://www.americaeconomia.com/negocios/latam-airlines-cerro-2024-con-82-millones-de-pasajeros-transportados-y-el-doble-de-utilidades-que-en-2023
  • Lideran aerolíneas mexicanas crecimiento internacional en Norteamérica: OAG | Aviación 21. https://aviacion21.com/aeronautica/2024/02/29/lideran-aerolineas-mexicanas-crecimiento-internacional-en-norteamerica-oag/
  • Mexico Aircraft Mro Market Size & Outlook, 2023-2030. https://www.lucintel.com/mexico-aircraft-mro-market.aspx
  • Mexican Air Traffic Controllers Protest Poor Working Conditions - Mexico Business News. https://mexicobusiness.news/aerospace/news/mexican-air-traffic-controllers-protest-poor-working-conditions
  • Mexicana transportó 256 mil de los 55 millones de pasajeros en vuelos nacionales en 2024; apenas 0.46% del mercado - Fábrica de Periodismo. https://fabricadeperiodismo.org/mexicana-transporto-256-mil-de-los-55-millones-de-pasajeros-en-vuelos-nacionales-en-2024-apenas-0-46-del-mercado/
  • Mexico Lacks 500 Air Controllers, Nearly Half Its Workforce. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-23/mexico-lacks-500-air-controllers-nearly-half-its-workforce
  • Mexico City International Airport - Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mexico_City_International_Airport
  • Mexico's jet fuel demand set to shift | Latest Market News - Argus Media. https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/articles/blog/2024/mexicos-jet-fuel-demand-set-to-shift
  • Mexico's Top Airport Operators Net MX$98 Billion Profit. https://mexicobusiness.news/finance/news/mexicos-top-airport-operators-net-mx98-billion-profit
  • Pasaje aéreo batió récord en México durante 2024 - Bien Informado. https://bieninformado.com.mx/2024/04/25/pasaje-aereo-batio-record-en-mexico-durante-2024/
  • Reporta Volaris año “notable” con utilidad neta de 126 millones de dólares - Aviación 21. https://aviacion21.com/empresas/2024/02/29/reporta-volaris-ano-notable-con-utilidad-neta-de-126-millones-de-dolares/
  • Strategies for airlines to improve ancillary sales - Cognizant. https://www.cognizant.com/us/en/glossary/ancillary-services-in-airline
  • U.S. Aviation Supply Chain Challenges: Parts Shortages, Rising Costs & Labor Resource Crunches - Magnetic Group. https://magneticgroup.co/news/u-s-aviation-supply-chain-challenges-parts-shortages-rising-costs-labor-resource-crunches/
  • Volaris 'anda volando bajo': Pierde 51 millones de dólares en primer trimestre de 2025. https://www.elfinanciero.com.mx/empresas/2025/04/24/volaris-pierde-51-millones-de-dolares-en-primer-trimestre-de-2025/
  • Viva Aerobus informa reporte trimestral correspondiente al tercer trimestre del 2024 - ALNNEWS. https://alnnews.com/viva-aerobus-informa-reporte-trimestral-correspondiente-al-tercer-trimestre-del-2024/
  • Mexico & Central America's Leading Airline Brand 2025 - World Travel Awards. https://www.worldtravelawards.com/award-mexico-and-central-americas-leading-airline-brand-2025
  • The most in Mexico: American Airlines adds 30th destination as part of a record-breaking schedule. https://www.aeropuertosmexico.com/the-most-in-mexico-american-airlines-adds-30th-destination-as-part-of-a-record-breaking-schedule/
  • Top 20 Busiest Air Routes Between Mexico and the United States - Aviacionline. https://aviacionline.com/2024/01/top-20-busiest-air-routes-between-mexico-and-the-united-states-in-2023/
  • Mexico and Canada Centers? - RadioReference.com Forums. https://forums.radioreference.com/threads/mexico-and-canada-centers.455638/
  • PrimeFlight Mexico. https://primeflight.com/locations/mexico/
  • Aeroméxico, la aerolínea más confiable de 2024, según Cirium - Yahoo Finanzas. https://es-us.finanzas.yahoo.com/noticias/aerom%C3%A9xico-aerol%C3%ADnea-m%C3%A1s-confiable-2024-155051620.html
  • Registra LATAM Airlines ganancias récord y mayor número de pasajeros en 2024. https://www.larepublica.net/noticia/registra-latam-airlines-ganancias-record-y-mayor-numero-de-pasajeros-en-2024
  • Sector de Aerol%C3%ADneas en M%C3%A9xico - Grupo BMV. http://www.bmv.com.mx/docs-pub/infoanual/infoanual_755029_1.pdf