Skip to content

Aluminium in Mexico Future Trends Analysis

The Mexican aluminium value chain is poised for significant transformation in the near future, driven by several key trends identified through recent investment patterns, market developments, and strategic initiatives by major players. These trends are primarily centered around enhancing domestic capabilities, meeting the demands of high-growth sectors, and aligning with global sustainability imperatives.

A primary trend is the substantial expansion of secondary aluminium production and recycling capacity. This is evidenced by significant investments from major players like ARZYZ and Novelis, aimed at increasing the volume of recycled aluminium available domestically and incorporating "green" recycling processes. This trend is a direct response to the global push for a circular economy and the increasing demand for low-carbon materials from end-use industries.

Another critical trend is the targeted growth in semi-fabrication capabilities, particularly in die casting and flat-rolled products, to serve key sectors. The automotive industry, especially the burgeoning Electric Vehicle (EV) segment, is a major focus, with investments like Ryobi Die Casting's expansion specifically targeting EV components. Simultaneously, there are strategic investments by Almexa and Novelis to increase flat-rolled product volumes, catering to the consistent demand from the packaging sector. This indicates a move towards specializing domestic production to meet the specific, high-quality requirements of these vital industries.

The development of downstream value-added products and specialized packaging solutions within Mexico represents a trend towards capturing more value domestically. The joint venture between Colep Packaging and Envases Group to establish an aluminium aerosol packaging plant is a clear example of this, aiming to serve North and Central American markets directly from Mexico. This trend suggests a focus on moving beyond semi-fabricated goods to finished products, potentially leading to import substitution and strengthening the local packaging ecosystem.

Furthermore, there is a discernible trend towards technological upgrading and specialization across the value chain. Investments in advanced die casting machines for complex EV parts, new processing equipment for flat-rolled metal, and the focus on environmentally friendly recycling technologies highlight a push towards higher-value production and improved efficiency. This technological advancement is crucial for meeting the stringent quality and performance standards of modern industries and enhancing competitiveness.

Finally, these interconnected trends collectively contribute to the overarching trend of strengthening domestic supply chains and supporting the nearshoring phenomenon. The significant inbound Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in the sector, coupled with the expansion of domestic capacity by key players, signals a growing confidence in Mexico as a manufacturing hub. The increasing ability to source recycled material and specialized components domestically makes Mexico a more attractive location for companies looking to establish manufacturing operations closer to the North American market.

Trend Potential Impact on Value Chain
Expansion of Secondary Aluminium Production (Recycling) Increased domestic supply of aluminium, reducing reliance on imported primary metal and scrap. Lower carbon footprint of Mexican aluminium products, enhancing sustainability credentials. Improved resource efficiency within the country. Strengthening of the recycling segment's role as a key raw material provider.
Growth in Semi-Fabrication for Key Sectors (Automotive/EVs, Packaging) Greater capacity and specialization to meet the specific demands of high-growth industries. Increased domestic availability of specialized castings and flat-rolled products. Support for the growth of the EV sector in Mexico. Enhanced competitiveness in supplying critical components to automotive and packaging clients.
Development of Downstream Value-Added Products and Packaging Solutions Higher value capture within the Mexican value chain. Potential for import substitution in certain finished goods segments. Strengthening of the packaging ecosystem through local production. Increased attractiveness for end-use industries seeking localized supply of finished components.
Technological Upgrading and Specialization Improved product quality, precision, and performance. Ability to produce higher-value, more complex aluminium products. Enhanced manufacturing efficiency and reduced waste. Increased competitiveness in demanding applications like automotive and potentially aerospace.
Strengthening Domestic Supply Chains and Supporting Nearshoring Increased resilience of the Mexican aluminium supply chain against external shocks. Enhanced attractiveness of Mexico as a nearshoring destination for manufacturing. Creation of a more integrated and robust local industry ecosystem. Potential for increased investment and job creation.

References

  • Aluminium Stewardship Initiative. ARZYZ, S.A. DE C.V. | Members. https://aluminiumstewardship.org/about-asi/members/arzyz-s-a-de-c-v/
  • alcircle. Canalum stands firm defending Mexico's aluminium integrity amidst US allegations (2024-02-22). https://www.alcircle.com/news/canalum-stands-firm-defending-mexicos-aluminium-integrity-amidst-us-allegations-107138
  • WEDC - Wisconsin Economic Development Corporation. Mexico relies on imported aluminum. https://wedc.org/blog/mexico-relies-on-imported-aluminum/
  • Americas Quarterly. Mexico in 2025: M&A Challenges and Opportunities (2025-03-18). https://www.americasquarterly.org/articles/mexico-in-2025-ma-challenges-and-opportunities/
  • ABB. Niedax Group and ABB to create joint venture in North America (2024-05-08). https://new.abb.com/news/detail/117132/niedax-group-and-abb-to-create-joint-venture-in-north-america
  • BNamericas. Mexico's ARZYZ plans US$650mn investment in aluminum plant expansion (2024-10-02). https://www.bnamericas.com/en/news/mexicos-arzyz-plans-us650mn-investment-in-aluminum-plant-expansion
  • Canalum. They will invest $15 billion in the aluminum industry by 2030 (2024-01-02). https://canalum.org.mx/noticias/invertiran-15-mil-mdd-en-industria-de-aluminio-hacia-2030/
  • Discovery Alert. Understanding Aluminium Premiums in Mexico: Market Trends 2025 (2025-04-10). https://www.discoveryalert.com/blog/understanding-aluminium-premiums-in-mexico-market-trends-2025
  • Elopak. Quarterly presentation. https://s21.q4cdn.com/173024471/files/doc_financials/2024/q4/Q4-24-Presentation_final.pdf
  • foundry-planet.com. Mexico to End Import Tax Exemption for Electric Vehicles (2024-09-02). https://www.foundry-planet.com/eu/news/Mexico-to-End-Import-Tax-Exemption-for-Electric-Vehicles-id150032
  • Giampaolo Group. VENTURE STEEL INC.ANNOUNCES THE EXPANSION OF THEIR RAMOS ARIZPE, MEXICO FACILITY (2024-05-22). https://www.giampaologroup.com/venture-steel-inc-announces-the-expansion-of-their-ramos-arizpe-mexico-facility/
  • Grupo Vasconia. Review of Almexa's Strategic Plan for its Mexican Assets (2024-04-19). https://vasconia.com/Storage/CKEditor/Docs/file/Presentacion_Revision_Plan_Estrategico_Almexa_Activos_Mexico_Metaquila.pdf
  • Metal Center News. Venture Steel Expanding in Mexico (2024-05-23). https://www.metalcenternews.com/articles/venture-steel-expanding-in-mexico
  • metalbulletin.com. Mexican tariffs said to already be affecting aluminium supply chain and premiums (2024-05-07). https://www.metalbulletbin.com/Article/3178462/mexican-tariffs-said-to-already-be-affecting-aluminium-supply-chain-and-premiums
  • metalbulletin.com. Increasing container costs and tight scrap availability concerns for aluminium industry (2024-06-13). https://www.metalbulletin.com/Article/3186704/Increasing-container-costs-and-tight-scrap-availability-concerns-for-aluminium-industry
  • Mexico Business News. ARZYZ Metals | Mexico Business News (2024-10-04). https://mexicobusiness.news/metals-mining/arzyz-metals-mexico-business-news
  • MINING.COM. Arzyz Metals to launch $650 million Mexico plant expansion (2024-09-30). https://www.mining.com/arzyz-metals-to-launch-650-million-mexico-plant-expansion/
  • MINING.COM. Canada's Triple M Metal and Venture Steel expand in Mexico (2024-05-27). https://www.mining.com/canadas-triple-m-metal-and-venture-steel-expand-in-mexico/
  • MINING.COM. Mexico's ARZYZ plans US$650mn investment in aluminum plant expansion (2024-10-08). https://www.mining.com/news/mexicos-arzyz-plans-us650mn-investment-in-aluminum-plant-expansion/
  • Mordor Intelligence. Mexico Automotive Parts Aluminum Die Casting Market Report | Industry Analysis, Size & Forecast. https://www.mordorintelligence.com/industry-reports/mexico-automotive-parts-aluminum-die-casting-market
  • news.metal.com. SMM: Latest News - Mexico Cancels Additional Tariffs on Imported (2024-05-08). https://news.metal.com/newsinfo/1844356.html
  • North American Die Casting Association. NADCA News & Announcements. https://www.diecasting.org/news/nadca-news
  • Novelis. Novelis to Expand Recycling Operations in Mexico (company release, 2023). https://www.novelis.com/newsroom/novelis-expands-recycling-mexico
  • PR Newswire. Fastmarkets announces aluminium pricing suite to bring transparency to Mexico's growing market (2025-03-12). https://www.prnewswire.com/newsreleases/fastmarkets-announces-aluminium-pricing-suite-to-bring-transparency-to-mexicos-growing-market-302086733.html
  • PR Newswire. Novelis Reports Third Quarter Fiscal Year 2025 Results (2025-02-10). https://www.prnewswire.com/newsreleases/novelis-reports-third-quarter-fiscal-year-2025-results-302058318.html
  • Real Alloy. Real Alloy - The Real Standard for Recycled Aluminum. https://www.realalloy.com/
  • Reuters. M&A activity in Mexico slows as tariff uncertainty shifts dealmaker strategies - ION Analytics (2025-03-28). https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/ma-activity-mexico-slows-tariff-uncertainty-shifts-dealmaker-strategies-2025-03-28/
  • RYOBI. Full Year FY2024 Results Briefing Material (2025-02-14). https://www.ryobi-group.co.jp/news/2025/0214/attach/20250214-2e.pdf
  • The Fabricator. Venture Steel purchases slitting line from Athader S.L. (2024-12-05). https://www.thefabricator.com/aluminumfabrication/news/aluminumfabrication/venture-steel-purchases-slitting-line-from-athader-s-l
  • The Metal Packager. Colep Packaging and Envases sign joint venture in Mexico (2023-10-23). https://www.themetalpackager.com/articles/2023/colep-packaging-and-envases-sign-joint-venture-in-mexico