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Aluminium in Mexico Analysis of Key Trends

The Mexican aluminium value chain is undergoing significant transformation driven by interconnected trends. These trends reflect a strategic move towards greater domestic capability, alignment with global sustainability goals, and responsiveness to the demands of high-growth end-use sectors.

  1. Expansion of Secondary Aluminium Production (Recycling) and Emphasis on Sustainability: A dominant trend is the substantial investment in expanding domestic secondary aluminium production (recycling) capacity. Major players like ARZYZ and Novelis are leading this charge, with ARZYZ planning a US$650 million investment in plant expansion and Novelis expanding its recycling operations in San Luis Potosí to 400,000 tonnes/year. This expansion is coupled with a focus on "green" recycling processes and achieving certifications like the Aluminium Stewardship Initiative (ASI) by companies such as ARZYZ. This trend is a direct response to the increasing global and domestic demand for low-carbon, sustainably produced materials, particularly from the automotive and packaging sectors. It aims to reduce reliance on imported primary aluminium and scrap, improve resource efficiency, and lower the carbon footprint of Mexican aluminium products. The new NOM-185 emissions standard, requiring secondary smelters to retrofit equipment, further underscores this push towards environmentally sound practices.

  2. Growth and Specialization in Semi-Fabrication for Key Sectors (Automotive/EVs, Packaging): There is a clear trend towards targeted growth in semi-fabrication capabilities, especially in high-pressure die casting and flat-rolled products, to serve the burgeoning automotive (particularly Electric Vehicles - EVs) and packaging industries. Investments by companies like Ryobi Die Casting, which is expanding to produce components for EVs, and the strategic plans of Almexa (Grupo Vasconia) and Novelis to increase flat-rolled product volumes, highlight this focus. The automotive sector's increasing demand for lightweight aluminium components (projected to rise from 140 kg per vehicle in 2020 to 180 kg by 2027) and the packaging sector's consistent need for can-sheet (estimated at 450 kt by 2025) are key drivers. This trend signifies a move towards higher-value, specialized production to meet the specific and stringent quality requirements of these critical end-use markets.

  3. Technological Upgrading and Adoption of Emerging Technologies: Across the value chain, there's a discernible push towards technological upgrading and the adoption of emerging technologies. This includes investments in advanced die casting machines for complex EV parts, new processing equipment for flat-rolled metal, and environmentally friendly recycling technologies. Emerging technologies such as Advanced Robotics and Automation (for sorting scrap and in fabrication), AI/ML (for process optimization and quality control), IoT and Sensors (for real-time monitoring), and Advanced Sorting and Separation Technologies (for improving scrap quality) are identified as having significant potential. While adoption levels may vary, the goal is to improve product quality, precision, manufacturing efficiency, and reduce waste, thereby enhancing the competitiveness of the Mexican aluminium industry in demanding applications and supporting the move towards Industry 4.0 principles, as seen with AMISSA's scrap tracking.

  4. Strengthening Domestic Supply Chains and Supporting Nearshoring: The aforementioned trends, particularly the expansion of domestic recycling and specialized semi-fabrication, contribute to an overarching trend of strengthening Mexico's domestic aluminium supply chain. Significant Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into the sector, alongside expansions by local players, indicates growing confidence in Mexico as a manufacturing hub. An increased ability to source recycled material and specialized components domestically makes Mexico more attractive for companies participating in the nearshoring phenomenon, looking to establish or expand manufacturing operations closer to the North American market. This aims to increase the resilience of the supply chain against external shocks like tariff volatility and logistics disruptions.

  5. Development of Downstream Value-Added Products: There is an emerging trend towards developing downstream value-added products within Mexico, allowing the country to capture more value domestically. The joint venture between Colep Packaging and Envases Group to establish an aluminium aerosol packaging plant to serve North and Central American markets is a prime example. This signals a strategic move beyond exporting semi-fabricated goods towards producing finished products locally, which can lead to import substitution and the development of a more integrated local industrial ecosystem.

  6. Increased Focus on Regulatory Compliance and Quality Standards: The regulatory landscape is evolving, with a heightened focus on environmental compliance (e.g., NOM-185) and product quality. The government's efforts to develop quality standards for aluminium trade to advance a circular economy will impact smelters and processors. This trend, while potentially increasing operational costs for some, aims to improve the overall quality and sustainability credentials of Mexican aluminium products, making them more competitive in international markets and aligning with the expectations of global OEMs and brands.

Key Findings

Trend Key Drivers Key Players/Examples Impact on Value Chain Stages Opportunities Challenges
Expansion of Secondary Aluminium Production & Sustainability Focus Global demand for low-carbon materials, circular economy goals, rising scrap availability, new environmental regulations (NOM-185) ARZYZ, Novelis, AMISSA, REAL ALLOY Importation (reduced primary imports), Secondary Production (capacity growth, tech upgrade), Semi-Fabrication (greener inputs) Reduced import dependency, lower carbon footprint, improved resource efficiency, potential for "green aluminium" premium. Scrap quality and consistent quantity, investment costs for upgrades, meeting stricter emission standards.
Growth & Specialization in Semi-Fabrication (Automotive/EVs, Packaging) Growth in automotive (esp. EV) and packaging sectors, demand for lightweighting, specific alloy/product requirements Nemak, Ryobi Die Casting, Almexa, Novelis, Cuprum, Bocar Group Semi-Fabrication (capacity growth, specialization), Further Fabrication (component supply) Increased domestic value-add, serving high-growth markets, enhanced competitiveness in critical components. High capital investment for specialized equipment, meeting stringent quality standards (e.g., IATF 16949), skilled labor for advanced manufacturing.
Technological Upgrading & Adoption of Emerging Technologies Need for efficiency, quality improvement, cost reduction, demand for complex parts, sustainability pressures AMISSA (Industry 4.0 scrap tracking), larger players investing in advanced casting/rolling Secondary Production (advanced sorting), Semi-Fabrication (automation, AI, IoT), Further Fabrication (robotics, 3D printing) Improved productivity, precision, and quality; reduced waste and energy consumption; ability to produce higher-value products. High initial investment costs, need for skilled workforce (data science, robotics), integration challenges with legacy systems, cybersecurity.
Strengthening Domestic Supply Chains & Supporting Nearshoring FDI inflows, desire for supply chain resilience, proximity to US market All domestic players contributing to local capacity, new entrants establishing operations All stages (reduced import reliance, localized sourcing, integrated logistics) Increased resilience to external shocks, enhanced attractiveness for nearshoring, job creation, development of industrial clusters. Logistics bottlenecks (ports, rail), ensuring consistent quality across a broader domestic supply base, data transparency.
Development of Downstream Value-Added Products Desire to capture more value domestically, import substitution opportunities Colep Packaging & Envases Group JV (aerosol cans) Further Fabrication (finished goods production), End-Use Industries (local supply of finished components) Higher value capture in Mexico, potential for export of finished goods, strengthening local ecosystems. Competition from established global manufacturers, investment in marketing and distribution for finished goods.
Increased Focus on Regulatory Compliance & Quality Standards Environmental protection (NOM-185), demand for certified/high-quality products, trade integrity All producers and fabricators, industry associations (e.g., Canalum advocating for standards) Secondary Production, Semi-Fabrication, Further Fabrication Improved product quality and consistency, enhanced international market access, better environmental performance. Increased compliance costs, potential challenges for SMEs to meet new standards, need for investment in testing/certification.

References

  • Aluminium Stewardship Initiative. ARZYZ, S.A. DE C.V. | Members. https://aluminiumstewardship.org/about-asi/members/arzyz-s-a-de-c-v/
  • AMISSA | Aluminum smelting and smart recycling – https://amissamx.com/
  • Americas Quarterly. Mexico in 2025: M&A Challenges and Opportunities (2025-03-18). https://www.americasquarterly.org/articles/mexico-in-2025-ma-challenges-and-opportunities/
  • BNamericas. Mexico's ARZYZ plans US$650mn investment in aluminum plant expansion (2024-10-02). https://www.bnamericas.com/en/news/mexicos-arzyz-plans-us650mn-investment-in-aluminum-plant-expansion
  • Canalum. They will invest $15 billion in the aluminum industry by 2030 (2024-01-02). https://canalum.org.mx/noticias/invertiran-15-mil-mdd-en-industria-de-aluminio-hacia-2030/
  • Grupo Vasconia. Review of Almexa's Strategic Plan for its Mexican Assets (2024-04-19). https://vasconia.com/Storage/CKEditor/Docs/file/Presentacion_Revision_Plan_Estrategico_Almexa_Activos_Mexico_Metaquila.pdf
  • MINING.COM. Arzyz Metals to launch $650 million Mexico plant expansion (2024-09-30). https://www.mining.com/arzyz-metals-to-launch-650-million-mexico-plant-expansion/
  • Mordor Intelligence. Mexico Automotive Parts Aluminum Die Casting Market Report | Industry Analysis, Size & Forecast. https://www.mordorintelligence.com/industry-reports/mexico-automotive-parts-aluminum-die-casting-market
  • Novelis. Novelis to Expand Recycling Operations in Mexico (company release, 2023). https://www.novelis.com/newsroom/novelis-expands-recycling-mexico
  • RYOBI. Full Year FY2024 Results Briefing Material (2025-02-14). https://www.ryobi-group.co.jp/news/2025/0214/attach/20250214-2e.pdf
  • The Metal Packager. Colep Packaging and Envases sign joint venture in Mexico (2023-10-23). https://www.themetalpackager.com/articles/2023/colep-packaging-and-envases-sign-joint-venture-in-mexico
  • Value Chain Report on the Aluminium Industry in Mexico (internal document, assumed from context)
  • Aluminium in Mexico Regulatory Changes Analysis (internal document, assumed from context)
  • Aluminium in Mexico Emerging Technologies Analysis (internal document, assumed from context)