Aluminium in Mexico Follow the Money Report¶

Opportunities for Change¶

The Mexican aluminium value chain is currently experiencing significant investment aimed at capitalizing on several key opportunities for change. These investments, predominantly from established players and strategic joint ventures, are reshaping the domestic landscape by expanding capacity, enhancing technological capabilities, and catering to evolving market demands, particularly in sustainability and specialized applications. The primary sources for this synthesis are the "M&A Movements Analysis," "Investment and VC Movements Analysis," and "New Entrants and Disruptors Analysis" reports.

1. Expansion of Secondary Aluminium Production (Recycling)¶

A major area receiving substantial investment is the expansion of secondary aluminium production, or recycling. This is driven by global trends towards sustainability, the circular economy, and the desire to increase domestic sourcing of raw materials for the aluminium industry. * ARZYZ, S.A. de C.V. is making a landmark investment of $650 million to expand its plant in Ciénega de Flores, Nuevo León. This expansion is focused on increasing secondary production capacity and implementing green aluminium recycling processes. (M&A Movements Analysis, Investment and VC Movements Analysis) * Novelis is investing $250 million in its San Luis Potosí facility to significantly boost its aluminium recycling capacity to 400,000 tonnes per year. This investment also includes enhancements to its rolling capabilities. (M&A Movements Analysis, Investment and VC Movements Analysis) * Triple M Metal LP is also expanding its non-ferrous processing capabilities in Ramos Arizpe, which supports the broader recycling ecosystem. (Investment and VC Movements Analysis)

These investments signal a significant opportunity to: * Meet the growing demand for aluminium with higher recycled content, driven by sustainability goals of end-use industries like automotive and packaging. * Improve resource efficiency within Mexico and reduce reliance on imported primary aluminium and, to some extent, scrap. * Increase the domestic supply of recycled aluminium alloys for downstream semi-fabrication processes.

2. Growth in Semi-Fabrication for Key Sectors¶

The semi-fabrication stage, encompassing casting and rolling, is seeing targeted investments to cater to high-growth sectors, notably automotive (especially Electric Vehicles - EVs) and packaging.

Automotive Components (especially for EVs):
- Ryobi Die Casting has announced a $50 million investment to expand its high-pressure die casting plant in Irapuato, specifically to meet future demand for EV components. This includes new large high-pressure die casting machines. (M&A Movements Analysis, Investment and VC Movements Analysis)
- The presence and development of Tesla's Gigafactory in Nuevo León, although an end-user, is a significant driver for potential future investments in the upstream supply chain, particularly for specialized castings and extruded components required for EVs. (New Entrants and Disruptors Analysis)
Flat-Rolled Products:
- Almexa (a division of Grupo Vasconia) has a strategic plan involving a $51 million capital investment (2024-2027) to increase its flat-rolled product volume from 15 kt in 2023 to a target of 60 kt by 2027. (M&A Movements Analysis, Investment and VC Movements Analysis)
- Novelis's $250 million expansion also includes enhancing rolling capabilities, supporting the supply of flat-rolled products. (M&A Movements Analysis, Investment and VC Movements Analysis)
- Venture Steel Inc. is expanding its facility in Ramos Arizpe, including the installation of new processing equipment for flat-rolled metal products, with completion anticipated in early 2025. (M&A Movements Analysis, Investment and VC Movements Analysis)

These investments create opportunities to: * Supply the rapidly growing EV market with specialized, lightweight aluminium components. * Meet the consistent demand from the packaging industry for aluminium sheet (e.g., for cans). * Enhance Mexico's domestic manufacturing capabilities for a wider range of semi-fabricated aluminium products.

3. Development of Downstream Value-Added Products and Packaging Solutions¶

Investment is also flowing into downstream activities, particularly in creating finished products and specialized packaging solutions, which adds more value within Mexico. * The joint venture between Colep Packaging and Envases Group represents an initial investment of over $30 million for constructing an aluminium aerosol packaging plant in Mexico. This 50/50 venture aims to expand production capacity for aluminium aerosol lines targeting North and Central American markets. (M&A Movements Analysis, Investment and VC Movements Analysis, New Entrants and Disruptors Analysis)

This highlights an opportunity to: * Increase local production of finished goods, potentially leading to import substitution in certain packaging segments. * Cater directly to the needs of the consumer goods and industrial products sectors requiring specialized aluminium packaging. * Strengthen the packaging segment of the aluminium value chain within Mexico.

4. Technological Upgrading and Specialization for Higher Value¶

Underpinning many of these investments is a drive towards technological modernization and specialization, enabling the production of higher-value aluminium products. * ARZYZ's investment includes a focus on "green aluminium recycling processes." (Investment and VC Movements Analysis) * Ryobi Die Casting's expansion is specifically for "large high-pressure die casting machines" catering to EV demands. (Investment and VC Movements Analysis) * Venture Steel's expansion includes "new processing equipment" for flat-rolled metal. (M&A Movements Analysis, Investment and VC Movements Analysis) * The broader industry push, involving players like Nemak and Bocar (mentioned in source reports for their EV focus), towards developing complex components for EVs and adhering to sustainability certifications (like ASI) also signifies this trend. (New Entrants and Disruptors Analysis)

The opportunity here lies in: * Moving up the value chain by producing more sophisticated and specialized aluminium products. * Improving manufacturing efficiency, quality control, and environmental performance. * Meeting the stringent technical and sustainability standards required by modern global industries, especially automotive and aerospace.

5. Strengthening Domestic Supply Chains and Supporting Nearshoring¶

Collectively, these investments contribute to strengthening Mexico's domestic aluminium supply chain and enhancing its attractiveness as a nearshoring destination for manufacturing. The rebound in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in alumina and aluminium production and processing to $15.8 million in 2024 (the highest since 2020) also signals renewed investor confidence. (Investment and VC Movements Analysis) * Expansions by ARZYZ, Novelis, Almexa, Ryobi, and Venture Steel all contribute to increased domestic capacity at various stages of the value chain. (M&A Movements Analysis, Investment and VC Movements Analysis) * The focus on recycling and specialized components (e.g., for EVs) aligns with the needs of manufacturers looking to localize supply chains in North America.

This presents an opportunity to: * Reduce Mexico's reliance on imports for certain processed and semi-fabricated aluminium products. * Enhance the overall competitiveness of the Mexican manufacturing sector by providing a more robust local supply of aluminium. * Capitalize on the nearshoring trend by offering a resilient and capable aluminium industry to support North American manufacturing operations.

Key Findings¶

The analysis of M&A, investment, and new entrant activities in the Mexican aluminium sector reveals significant capital deployment aimed at specific opportunities for change within the value chain. These investments are primarily focused on expanding capacity in recycling and semi-fabrication, modernizing technology, catering to the burgeoning EV market, and increasing domestic value addition.

Opportunity for Change	Key Investments/Players & Focus	Implied Transformation
Expansion of Secondary Aluminium Production (Recycling)	ARZYZ: $650M expansion for secondary production, green aluminium. Novelis: $250M for recycling capacity increase (to 400k t/yr) & rolling. Triple M Metal: Non-ferrous processing expansion.	Increased domestic supply of sustainable aluminium, improved resource efficiency, reduced reliance on primary/imported scrap, supporting circular economy goals.
Growth in Semi-Fabrication for Key Sectors	Ryobi Die Casting: $50M for EV component casting. Almexa: $51M (2024-27) to increase flat-rolled volume to 60 kt/yr. Novelis: Enhanced rolling. Venture Steel: Flat-rolled processing expansion.	Enhanced capacity and specialization for automotive (especially EVs) and packaging sectors. Increased domestic availability of flat-rolled products and complex castings.
Development of Downstream Value-Added Products	Colep Packaging & Envases Group JV: >$30M for aluminium aerosol packaging plant.	Increased domestic production of finished aluminium goods (packaging), import substitution potential, greater value capture within Mexico.
Technological Upgrading and Specialization	Investments in "green" processes (ARZYZ), advanced die casting (Ryobi), new processing equipment (Venture Steel), focus on EV components and sustainability (industry-wide).	Shift towards higher-value, more complex aluminium products. Improved efficiency, quality, and environmental performance to meet modern global industry standards.
Strengthening Domestic Supply Chains & Nearshoring	Broad capacity expansions across the chain (ARZYZ, Novelis, Almexa, etc.). FDI rebound ($15.8M in 2024). Tesla Gigafactory as demand anchor.	Increased self-sufficiency in processed aluminium, enhanced attractiveness as a nearshoring hub for North American manufacturing, creation of more resilient local supply chains.

References¶

This report synthesizes information from the "M&A Movements Analysis," "Investment and VC Movements Analysis," and "New Entrants and Disruptors Analysis" reports. The facts and figures presented are based on the content of these reports, which in turn cite the following external sources:

Aluminium Stewardship Initiative. ARZYZ, S.A. DE C.V. | Members. https://aluminiumstewardship.org/about-asi/members/arzyz-s-a-de-c-v/
alcircle. Canalum stands firm defending Mexico's aluminium integrity amidst US allegations (2024-02-22). https://www.alcircle.com/news/canalum-stands-firm-defending-mexicos-aluminium-integrity-amidst-us-allegations-107138
AMISSA. AMISSA | Aluminum smelting and smart recycling. https://amissamx.com/
Americas Quarterly. Mexico in 2025: M&A Challenges and Opportunities (2025-03-18). https://www.americasquarterly.org/articles/mexico-in-2025-ma-challenges-and-opportunities/
ABB. Niedax Group and ABB to create joint venture in North America (2024-05-08). https://new.abb.com/news/detail/117132/niedax-group-and-abb-to-create-joint-venture-in-north-america
BNamericas. Mexico's ARZYZ plans US$650mn investment in aluminum plant expansion (2024-10-02). https://www.bnamericas.com/en/news/mexicos-arzyz-plans-us650mn-investment-in-aluminum-plant-expansion
Canalum. They will invest $15 billion in the aluminum industry by 2030 (2024-01-02). https://canalum.org.mx/noticias/invertiran-15-mil-mdd-en-industria-de-aluminio-hacia-2030/
Discovery Alert. Understanding Aluminium Premiums in Mexico: Market Trends 2025 (2025-04-10). https://www.discoveryalert.com/blog/understanding-aluminium-premiums-in-mexico-market-trends-2025
Elopak. Quarterly presentation. https://s21.q4cdn.com/173024471/files/doc_financials/2024/q4/Q4-24-Presentation_final.pdf
Expert Market Research. Mexico Aluminium Metals Market Size & Share Report 2035. https://www.expertmarketresearch.com/reports/mexico-aluminium-metals-market
foundry-planet.com. Mexico to End Import Tax Exemption for Electric Vehicles (2024-09-02). https://www.foundry-planet.com/eu/news/Mexico-to-End-Import-Tax-Exemption-for-Electric-Vehicles-id150032
Giampaolo Group. VENTURE STEEL INC.ANNOUNCES THE EXPANSION OF THEIR RAMOS ARIZPE, MEXICO FACILITY (2024-05-22). https://www.giampaologroup.com/venture-steel-inc-announces-the-expansion-of-their-ramos-arizpe-mexico-facility/
Grupo Vasconia. Review of Almexa's Strategic Plan for its Mexican Assets (2024-04-19). https://vasconia.com/Storage/CKEditor/Docs/file/Presentacion_Revision_Plan_Estrategico_Almexa_Activos_Mexico_Metaquila.pdf
Inter-American Dialogue. Powerful New Data and Insights on Investments in Mexico by China-Linked Entities (2025-03-04). https://www.thedialogue.org/analysis/powerful-new-data-and-insights-on-investments-in-mexico-by-china-linked-entities/
Metal Center News. Venture Steel Expanding in Mexico (2024-05-23). https://www.metalcenternews.com/articles/venture-steel-expanding-in-mexico
metalbulletin.com. Mexican tariffs said to already be affecting aluminium supply chain and premiums (2024-05-07). https://www.metalbulletbin.com/Article/3178462/mexican-tariffs-said-to-already-be-affecting-aluminium-supply-chain-and-premiums
metalbulletin.com. Increasing container costs and tight scrap availability concerns for aluminium industry (2024-06-13). https://www.metalbulletin.com/Article/3186704/Increasing-container-costs-and-tight-scrap-availability-concerns-for-aluminium-industry
Mexico Business News. ARZYZ Metals | Mexico Business News (2024-10-04). https://mexicobusiness.news/metals-mining/arzyz-metals-mexico-business-news
MINING.COM. Arzyz Metals to launch $650 million Mexico plant expansion (2024-09-30). https://www.mining.com/arzyz-metals-to-launch-650-million-mexico-plant-expansion/
MINING.COM. Canada's Triple M Metal and Venture Steel expand in Mexico (2024-05-27). https://www.mining.com/canadas-triple-m-metal-and-venture-steel-expand-in-mexico/
MINING.COM. Mexico's ARZYZ plans US$650mn investment in aluminum plant expansion (2024-10-08). https://www.mining.com/news/mexicos-arzyz-plans-us650mn-investment-in-aluminum-plant-expansion/
Mordor Intelligence. Mexico Automotive Parts Aluminum Die Casting Market Report | Industry Analysis, Size & Forecast. https://www.mordorintelligence.com/industry-reports/mexico-automotive-parts-aluminum-die-casting-market
news.metal.com. SMM: Latest News - Mexico Cancels Additional Tariffs on Imported (2024-05-08). https://news.metal.com/newsinfo/1844356.html
North American Die Casting Association. NADCA News & Announcements. https://www.diecasting.org/news/nadca-news
Novelis. Novelis to Expand Recycling Operations in Mexico (company release, 2023). https://www.novelis.com/newsroom/novelis-expands-recycling-mexico
PR Newswire. Fastmarkets announces aluminium pricing suite to bring transparency to Mexico's growing market (2025-03-12). https://www.prnewswire.com/newsreleases/fastmarkets-announces-aluminium-pricing-suite-to-bring-transparency-to-mexicos-growing-market-302086733.html
PR Newswire. Novelis Reports Third Quarter Fiscal Year 2025 Results (2025-02-10). https://www.prnewswire.com/newsreleases/novelis-reports-third-quarter-fiscal-year-2025-results-302058318.html
Real Alloy. Real Alloy - The Real Standard for Recycled Aluminum. https://www.realalloy.com/
Reuters. M&A activity in Mexico slows as tariff uncertainty shifts dealmaker strategies - ION Analytics (2025-03-28). https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/ma-activity-mexico-slows-tariff-uncertainty-shifts-dealmaker-strategies-2025-03-28/
RYOBI. Full Year FY2024 Results Briefing Material (2025-02-14). https://www.ryobi-group.co.jp/news/2025/0214/attach/20250214-2e.pdf
The Fabricator. Venture Steel purchases slitting line from Athader S.L. (2024-12-05). https://www.thefabricator.com/aluminumfabrication/news/aluminumfabrication/venture-steel-purchases-slitting-line-from-athader-s-l
The Metal Packager. Colep Packaging and Envases sign joint venture in Mexico (2023-10-23). https://www.themetalpackager.com/articles/2023/colep-packaging-and-envases-sign-joint-venture-in-mexico (Also cited as Connective Press with same URL in one source document)
WEDC - Wisconsin Economic Development Corporation. Mexico relies on imported aluminum. https://wedc.org/blog/mexico-relies-on-imported-aluminum/