Aluminium in Mexico Current Demand Behavior Analysis¶

Demand Behavior¶

The current demand behavior for aluminium in Mexico is primarily characterized by significant Business-to-Business (B2B) consumption across key industrial sectors, with the ultimate demand being driven by Business-to-Consumer (B2C) markets. The Mexican aluminium value chain primarily serves businesses that integrate aluminium into their final products, rather than selling raw or semi-fabricated aluminium directly to individual consumers.

Detailed report on the number of individual and business consumers:

Based on the provided reports, the direct consumers of aluminium in Mexico are predominantly businesses. These B2B customers are concentrated within the following end-use industries, which collectively represent the vast majority of domestic aluminium demand:

Automotive Sector: This is the largest B2B customer segment, accounting for over 45% of domestic aluminium consumption. Key customers include major vehicle manufacturers (OEMs) such as Stellantis, GM, VW, and the upcoming Tesla Gigafactory in Nuevo León, as well as their extensive network of Tier 1, 2, and 3 suppliers. The number of companies within this sector that consume aluminium is substantial, involving numerous manufacturing plants and their suppliers located in automotive hubs across the country.
Construction Sector: Representing approximately 25% of the domestic demand, this B2B segment comprises construction companies, property developers, and manufacturers of building systems (e.g., windows, doors, facades). The number of businesses in this sector utilizing aluminium is tied to the scale and activity of the construction industry in urban and developing areas.
Packaging Sector: This segment accounts for around 18% of the domestic volume. Key B2B customers are beverage and food processing companies, such as Grupo Bimbo and FEMSA, who require aluminium for packaging like cans and foil. This involves a significant number of food and beverage producers and packaging manufacturers.
Electrical & Others: This category makes up the remaining 12% of consumption and includes manufacturers in the electrical industry using aluminium for conductors and components, as well as various other industrial sectors incorporating aluminium into machinery and equipment. The number of businesses in this diverse category is broad, encompassing various manufacturing and industrial operations.

While specific counts for the exact number of individual businesses within each sector consuming aluminium are not provided, the reports clearly identify these sectors as the primary B2B customer base. Individual consumers are the ultimate drivers of demand but interact with the final products (vehicles, buildings, packaged goods) rather than purchasing raw or semi-fabricated aluminium. The number of individual B2C consumers is equivalent to the population consuming goods that utilize aluminium, which is a vast and dynamic number. However, from the perspective of the aluminium value chain, the direct customers are the businesses in the aforementioned sectors.

Table showing the growth/decline in the number of customers:

Due to the nature of the provided data, which focuses on market volume and projections rather than a historical count of individual customer entities, a table detailing the precise number of customers (businesses or individuals) over time is not feasible. However, the available information strongly indicates a trend of growth in the overall demand for aluminium in Mexico, which can be interpreted as either an increase in the number of businesses consuming aluminium, an increase in the volume consumed per business, or a combination of both.

Aspect	Trend (Growth/Decline)	Supporting Information
Overall Mexican Aluminium Market Size	Growth	Projected to grow from USD 3.86 billion in 2023 to USD 6.36 billion by 2030 (CAGR of 6.7%) or USD 3.74 billion in 2024 to USD 6.33 billion by 2034 (CAGR of 5.40%).
Automotive Sector Consumption	Growth	Aluminium content per vehicle in Mexican-assembled vehicles expected to climb from 140 kg (2020) to 180 kg by 2027.
Packaging Sector Demand (Cans)	Growth	Projected metal demand for cans estimated at 450 kt by 2025.
Secondary Aluminium Production	Growth	Grew 9.3% in 2024; Novelis expanding recycling + rolling capacity to 400 kt/y.
Investment in Downstream Capacity	Growth	Mentions of new facilities (Tesla Gigafactory under construction), expansions (Novelis), and significant die-casting capacity.

This table illustrates that the overall demand for aluminium in Mexico is growing, driven by expansion and increasing aluminium usage in key end-use sectors. This growth in demand volume strongly suggests either an increase in the number of consuming businesses or, more likely, an increase in the volume of aluminium consumed by existing businesses as their production and the aluminium content in their products rise. The market projections explicitly forecast overall market growth, indicating a positive trend in consumption.

References¶

AMISSA | Aluminum smelting and smart recycling – https://amissamx.com/
ARZYZ, S.A. DE C.V. | Aluminium Stewardship Initiative – https://aluminiumstewardship.org/about-asi/members/arzyz-s-a-de-c-v/
Aluminum recycling: an urgent and unexplored reality in Mexico | TOMRA – https://www.tomra.com/en/news/2021/mexico-aluminium-recycling
Aluminum Extrusion Industry Faces Challenges Amid Global Supply Chain Disruptions – https://aluplast.net/en/news/aluminum-extrusion-industry-faces-challenges-amid-global-supply-chain-disruptions
Increasing container costs and tight scrap availability concerns for aluminium industry – https://www.metalbulletin.com/Article/3186704/Increasing-container-costs-and-tight-scrap-availability-concerns-for-aluminium-industry
Lince – Aluminum & Alloys – https://lincealuminum.com/
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Mexico relies on imported aluminum – Wisconsin Economic Development Corporation – https://wedc.org/blog/mexico-relies-on-imported-aluminum/
Mexico Aluminium Market Report Forecast Till 2030 – https://www.alcircle.com/market-report/mexico-aluminium-market-report-forecast-till-2030-1250
Mexican tariffs said to already be affecting aluminium supply chain and premiums – https://www.metalbulletin.com/Article/3178462/mexican-tariffs-said-to-already-be-affecting-aluminium-supply-chain-and-premiums
Novelis to Expand Recycling Operations in Mexico (company release, 2023) – https://www.novelis.com/newsroom/novelis-expands-recycling-mexico
Real Alloy – The Real Standard for Recycled Aluminum – https://www.realalloy.com/
Top 10 Aluminium Die Casting Manufacturers in Mexico – https://www.sunrise-metal.com/top-10-aluminium-die-casting-manufacturers-mexico/
Trafigura Annual Report 2024 – Metals and Minerals section – https://www.trafigura.com/annual-report-2024/
Understanding Aluminium Premiums in Mexico: Market Trends 2025 – https://www.discoveryalert.com/blog/understanding-aluminium-premiums-in-mexico-market-trends-2025
Canalum stands firm defending Mexico's aluminium integrity amidst US allegations (2024-02-22) – https://www.alcircle.com/news/canalum-stands-firm-defending-mexicos-aluminium-integrity-amidst-us-allegations-107138
SMM: Latest News - Mexico Cancels Additional Tariffs on Imported (2024-05-08) – https://news.metal.com/newsinfo/1844356.html
Alumina and Aluminum Production and Processing: Wages, production, investment, opportunities and complexity | Data México – https://datamexico.org/en/profile/economic-sector/alumina-and-aluminum-production-and-processing
Increasing container costs and tight scrap availability concerns for aluminium industry (2024-06-13) – https://www.metalbulletin.com/Article/3186704/Increasing-container-costs-and-tight-scrap-availability-concerns-for-aluminium-industry
Mexico - BIR – https://www.bir.org/publications/bureau-of-international-recycling-bir-world-mirror/world-mirror-non-ferrous-metals/mexico