Aluminium in Mexico Current Behavior Changes Analysis¶
Ongoing Behavior Changes¶
Current analysis of the Mexican aluminium value chain, based on the provided reports, reveals several ongoing behavior changes impacting relationships and demand. These changes are primarily driven by shifts in end-use industry requirements, influenced by global trends and domestic market dynamics.
One significant behavior change is the increasing demand for lightweight and sustainable materials, particularly within the automotive sector and, to a growing extent, packaging and construction. Automotive manufacturers (B2B customers) are intensifying their focus on lightweighting to meet fuel efficiency standards for internal combustion engine vehicles and extend the range of electric vehicles. [Value Chain Report] This translates into a demand for more aluminium per vehicle, projected to rise from 140 kg in 2020 to 180 kg by 2027. [Current Demand Behavior Analysis] Coupled with this is a growing emphasis on sustainability, pushing demand for recycled and low-carbon aluminium. Companies like ARZYZ are pursuing ASI certification and developing hydrogen-ready furnaces, while REAL ALLOY focuses on closed-loop contracts with automakers, indicating a behavioral shift among suppliers to meet these evolving customer priorities. [Value Chain Report] The packaging sector, with key players like Grupo Bimbo and FEMSA, also leverages aluminium's recyclability narrative and drives closed-loop UBC collection programs. [Value Chain Report]
Another key change is the growth and expansion of major end-use industries in Mexico. The automotive sector continues to be the largest consumer, with significant players like Stellantis and the under-construction Tesla Gigafactory driving substantial current and projected demand for aluminium. [Value Chain Report] The construction sector also remains a strong consumer, riding housing and commercial build-outs. [Value Chain Report] The packaging sector's demand for cans is projected to reach 450 kt by 2025. [Value Chain Report] This overall market growth, projected from USD 3.86 billion in 2023 to USD 6.36 billion by 2030, signifies a sustained increase in the volume of aluminium required by B2B customers. [Current Demand Behavior Analysis] This behavior of increasing consumption volumes is a primary driver felt throughout the value chain.
Furthermore, the behavior of B2B customers is increasingly characterized by a demand for reliable, efficient, and technologically advanced supply chains. Operating in a market dependent on imports for primary metal and a significant portion of scrap, and facing logistics bottlenecks and tariff volatility, customers require predictability and efficiency from their suppliers. [Value Chain Report] The adoption of molten metal supply agreements between recyclers and die casters exemplifies a behavioral adaptation to reduce re-melt energy and improve logistical efficiency, binding these players in closer relationships. [Value Chain Report] In the automotive sector, tiered suppliers operate under strict quality clauses and require just-in-time logistics, indicating a low tolerance for supply disruptions. [Value Chain Report] This pushes behavior upstream towards better inventory management, logistics planning, and supply chain resilience.
Finally, there is a notable behavior change towards increased integration and strategic partnerships within the value chain, often driven by the requirements of large B2B customers and the pursuit of efficiency and sustainability. The growth in secondary production and the expansion of recycling capacity by companies like Novelis reflect a strategic behavior to capitalize on the domestic scrap stream and meet demand for recycled content. [Value Chain Report] The vertical integration seen in some players, like Nemak melting internal scrap or Stellantis sourcing billet for in-house structural castings, highlights a behavior aimed at securing supply and controlling costs and quality. [Value Chain Report] These integrations and partnerships solidify relationships and can shift the commercial dynamics within specific segments.
Table of the impact of these changes on the value chain¶
| Ongoing Behavior Change | Impact on Value Chain Relationships | Impact on Value Chain Demand |
|---|---|---|
| Increased demand for lightweighting and sustainability | Strengthens technical collaboration between fabricators and end-users; Fosters partnerships around recycling and low-carbon material sourcing; Increases requirements for certifications (e.g., ASI). | Drives increased aluminium content per unit (e.g., per vehicle); Boosts demand for recycled aluminium and specific alloys suited for lightweighting applications. |
| Growth in key end-use sectors (Automotive, Construction, Packaging) | Intensifies commercial relationships between fabricators and their B2B customers (OEMs, builders, food/beverage companies); Drives need for increased capacity and potential new entrants in fabrication stages. | Leads to a significant increase in the overall volume of aluminium demanded across multiple stages of the value chain. |
| Emphasis on reliable and efficient supply chains | Reinforces the importance of strong relationships with importers and logistics providers; Encourages localized sourcing where possible (e.g., molten metal supply); Increases pressure on suppliers for on-time delivery and inventory management. | Shifts demand towards suppliers capable of ensuring supply security and logistical efficiency amidst external challenges. |
| Shift towards higher-value products (e.g., complex castings) | Requires closer technical partnerships between fabricators and end-users for co-design and qualification; Drives investment in advanced manufacturing technologies. | Increases demand for more complex and precisely manufactured aluminium components, moving demand up the value curve. |
| Focus on circular economy and recycling | Strengthens relationships between scrap generators/collectors and recyclers; Fosters closed-loop partnerships between recyclers and end-users (e.g., can companies, automakers). | Increases demand for aluminium scrap and boosts the volume of secondary aluminium production and consumption. |
References¶
- AMISSA | Aluminum smelting and smart recycling – https://amissamx.com/
- ARZYZ, S.A. DE C.V. | Aluminium Stewardship Initiative – https://aluminiumstewardship.org/about-asi/members/arzyz-s-a-de-c-v/
- Aluminum recycling: an urgent and unexplored reality in Mexico | TOMRA – https://www.tomra.com/en/news/2021/mexico-aluminium-recycling
- Aluminum Extrusion Industry Faces Challenges Amid Global Supply Chain Disruptions – https://aluplast.net/en/news/aluminum-extrusion-industry-faces-challenges-amid-global-supply-chain-disruptions
- Increasing container costs and tight scrap availability concerns for aluminium industry – https://www.metalbulletin.com/Article/3186704/Increasing-container-costs-and-tight-scrap-availability-concerns-for-aluminium-industry
- Lince – Aluminum & Alloys – https://lincealuminum.com/
- Mexico Automotive Parts Aluminum Die Casting Market Report | Mordor Intelligence – https://www.mordorintelligence.com/industry-reports/mexico-automotive-parts-aluminum-die-casting-market
- Mexico relies on imported aluminum – Wisconsin Economic Development Corporation – https://wedc.org/blog/mexico-relies-on-imported-aluminum/
- Mexico Aluminium Market Report Forecast Till 2030 – https://www.alcircle.com/market-report/mexico-aluminium-market-report-forecast-till-2030-1250
- Mexican tariffs said to already be affecting aluminium supply chain and premiums – https://www.metalbulletin.com/Article/3178462/mexican-tariffs-said-to-already-be-affecting-aluminium-supply-chain-and-premiums
- Novelis to Expand Recycling Operations in Mexico (company release, 2023) – https://www.novelis.com/newsroom/novelis-expands-recycling-mexico
- Real Alloy – The Real Standard for Recycled Aluminum – https://www.realalloy.com/
- Top 10 Aluminium Die Casting Manufacturers in Mexico – https://www.sunrise-metal.com/top-10-aluminium-die-casting-manufacturers-mexico/
- Trafigura Annual Report 2024 – Metals and Minerals section – https://www.trafigura.com/annual-report-2024/
- Understanding Aluminium Premiums in Mexico: Market Trends 2025 – https://www.discoveryalert.com/blog/understanding-aluminium-premiums-in-mexico-market-trends-2025
- Canalum stands firm defending Mexico's aluminium integrity amidst US allegations (2024-02-22) – https://www.alcircle.com/news/canalum-stands-firm-defending-mexicos-aluminium-integrity-amidst-us-allegations-107138
- SMM: Latest News - Mexico Cancels Additional Tariffs on Imported (2024-05-08) – https://news.metal.com/newsinfo/1844356.html
- Alumina and Aluminum Production and Processing: Wages, production, investment, opportunities and complexity | Data México – https://datamexico.org/en/profile/economic-sector/alumina-and-aluminum-production-and-processing
- Increasing container costs and tight scrap availability concerns for aluminium industry (2024-06-13) – https://www.metalbulletin.com/Article/3186704/Increasing-container-costs-and-tight-scrap-availability-concerns-for-aluminium-industry
- Mexico - BIR – https://www.bir.org/publications/bureau-of-international-recycling-bir-world-mirror/world-mirror-non-ferrous-metals/mexico